JFE Holdings, Inc. Just Missed EPS By 47%: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next

The analysts might have been a bit too bullish on JFE Holdings, Inc. (TSE:5411), given that the company fell short of expectations when it released its first-quarter results last week. It wasn't a great result overall - while revenue fell marginally short of analyst estimates at JP¥1.2t, statutory earnings missed forecasts by an incredible 47%, coming in at just JP¥43.27 per share. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on JFE Holdings after the latest results.

View our latest analysis for JFE Holdings

After the latest results, the eight analysts covering JFE Holdings are now predicting revenues of JP¥5.38t in 2025. If met, this would reflect a satisfactory 5.0% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to jump 28% to JP¥334. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of JP¥5.34t and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥357 in 2025. The analysts seem to have become a little more negative on the business after the latest results, given the minor downgrade to their earnings per share numbers for next year.

It might be a surprise to learn that the consensus price target was broadly unchanged at JP¥2,647, with the analysts clearly implying that the forecast decline in earnings is not expected to have much of an impact on valuation. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. The most optimistic JFE Holdings analyst has a price target of JP¥3,160 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at JP¥2,100. This shows there is still a bit of diversity in estimates, but analysts don't appear to be totally split on the stock as though it might be a success or failure situation.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that JFE Holdings' revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2025 expected to display 6.7% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 10% over the past five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 3.5% annually. Even after the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that JFE Holdings is also expected to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at JP¥2,647, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on JFE Holdings. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for JFE Holdings going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here..

We don't want to rain on the parade too much, but we did also find 3 warning signs for JFE Holdings that you need to be mindful of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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