It's Down 30% But Godo Steel, Ltd. (TSE:5410) Could Be Riskier Than It Looks

Godo Steel, Ltd. (TSE:5410) shareholders that were waiting for something to happen have been dealt a blow with a 30% share price drop in the last month. The drop over the last 30 days has capped off a tough year for shareholders, with the share price down 15% in that time.

Even after such a large drop in price, Godo Steel may still be sending very bullish signals at the moment with its price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 3.8x, since almost half of all companies in Japan have P/E ratios greater than 14x and even P/E's higher than 21x are not unusual. However, the P/E might be quite low for a reason and it requires further investigation to determine if it's justified.

As an illustration, earnings have deteriorated at Godo Steel over the last year, which is not ideal at all. One possibility is that the P/E is low because investors think the company won't do enough to avoid underperforming the broader market in the near future. However, if this doesn't eventuate then existing shareholders may be feeling optimistic about the future direction of the share price.

Check out our latest analysis for Godo Steel

Want the full picture on earnings, revenue and cash flow for the company? Then our free report on Godo Steel will help you shine a light on its historical performance.

Is There Any Growth For Godo Steel?

The only time you'd be truly comfortable seeing a P/E as depressed as Godo Steel's is when the company's growth is on track to lag the market decidedly.

Taking a look back first, the company's earnings per share growth last year wasn't something to get excited about as it posted a disappointing decline of 15%. However, a few very strong years before that means that it was still able to grow EPS by an impressive 460% in total over the last three years. Although it's been a bumpy ride, it's still fair to say the earnings growth recently has been more than adequate for the company.

Weighing that recent medium-term earnings trajectory against the broader market's one-year forecast for expansion of 9.8% shows it's noticeably more attractive on an annualised basis.

With this information, we find it odd that Godo Steel is trading at a P/E lower than the market. It looks like most investors are not convinced the company can maintain its recent growth rates.

The Bottom Line On Godo Steel's P/E

Shares in Godo Steel have plummeted and its P/E is now low enough to touch the ground. While the price-to-earnings ratio shouldn't be the defining factor in whether you buy a stock or not, it's quite a capable barometer of earnings expectations.

Our examination of Godo Steel revealed its three-year earnings trends aren't contributing to its P/E anywhere near as much as we would have predicted, given they look better than current market expectations. There could be some major unobserved threats to earnings preventing the P/E ratio from matching this positive performance. It appears many are indeed anticipating earnings instability, because the persistence of these recent medium-term conditions would normally provide a boost to the share price.

And what about other risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 2 warning signs for Godo Steel you should know about.

If these risks are making you reconsider your opinion on Godo Steel, explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com