Kumiai Chemical Industry Co., Ltd.

TSE:4996 Stock Report

Market Cap: JP¥98.0b

Kumiai Chemical Industry Valuation

Is 4996 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

5/6

Valuation Score 5/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of 4996 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: 4996 (¥812) is trading below our estimate of fair value (¥1748.56)

Significantly Below Fair Value: 4996 is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for 4996?

Key metric: As 4996 is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for 4996. This is calculated by dividing 4996's market cap by their current earnings.
What is 4996's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio6x
EarningsJP¥16.37b
Market CapJP¥97.99b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does 4996's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for 4996 vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average12.2x
4997 Nihon Nohyaku
11.8xn/aJP¥55.6b
4992 Hokko Chemical Industry
9.5x12.1%JP¥36.2b
4025 Taki Chemical
14.7xn/aJP¥30.1b
4979 OAT Agrio
12.9xn/aJP¥20.9b
4996 Kumiai Chemical Industry
6x-6.6%JP¥98.0b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: 4996 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (6x) compared to the peer average (12.2x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does 4996's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the JP Chemicals Industry?

1 CompanyPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
4119 Nippon Pigment Holdings
0.6xn/aUS$31.27m
No more companies available in this PE range
4996 6.0xIndustry Avg. 12.1xNo. of Companies19PE0612182430+
1 CompanyEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: 4996 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (6x) compared to the JP Chemicals industry average (12.1x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is 4996's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

4996 PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio6x
Fair PE Ratio8.6x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: 4996 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (6x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (8.6x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst 4996 forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentJP¥812.00
JP¥1,070.00
+31.8%
23.4%JP¥1,420.00JP¥850.00n/a3
Nov ’25JP¥820.00
JP¥1,070.00
+30.5%
23.4%JP¥1,420.00JP¥850.00n/a3
Oct ’25JP¥846.00
JP¥1,070.00
+26.5%
23.4%JP¥1,420.00JP¥850.00n/a3
Sep ’25JP¥777.00
JP¥993.33
+27.8%
15.1%JP¥1,200.00JP¥850.00n/a3
Aug ’25JP¥778.00
JP¥993.33
+27.7%
15.1%JP¥1,200.00JP¥850.00n/a3
Jul ’25JP¥813.00
JP¥993.33
+22.2%
15.1%JP¥1,200.00JP¥850.00n/a3
Jun ’25JP¥769.00
JP¥1,033.33
+34.4%
16.0%JP¥1,250.00JP¥850.00n/a3
May ’25JP¥803.00
JP¥1,033.33
+28.7%
16.0%JP¥1,250.00JP¥850.00n/a3
Apr ’25JP¥830.00
JP¥1,050.00
+26.5%
17.8%JP¥1,300.00JP¥850.00n/a3
Mar ’25JP¥825.00
JP¥1,073.33
+30.1%
17.1%JP¥1,300.00JP¥850.00n/a3
Feb ’25JP¥840.00
JP¥1,073.33
+27.8%
17.1%JP¥1,300.00JP¥850.00n/a3
Jan ’25JP¥807.00
JP¥1,456.67
+80.5%
14.3%JP¥1,750.00JP¥1,300.00n/a3
Dec ’24JP¥1,084.00
JP¥1,456.67
+34.4%
14.3%JP¥1,750.00JP¥1,300.00n/a3
Nov ’24JP¥1,120.00
JP¥1,456.67
+30.1%
14.3%JP¥1,750.00JP¥1,300.00JP¥820.003
Oct ’24JP¥1,108.00
JP¥1,456.67
+31.5%
14.3%JP¥1,750.00JP¥1,300.00JP¥846.003
Sep ’24JP¥1,146.00
JP¥1,480.00
+29.1%
15.3%JP¥1,800.00JP¥1,300.00JP¥777.003
Aug ’24JP¥1,071.00
JP¥1,480.00
+38.2%
15.3%JP¥1,800.00JP¥1,300.00JP¥778.003
Jul ’24JP¥1,120.00
JP¥1,480.00
+32.1%
15.3%JP¥1,800.00JP¥1,300.00JP¥813.003
Jun ’24JP¥910.00
JP¥1,425.00
+56.6%
15.8%JP¥1,650.00JP¥1,200.00JP¥769.002
May ’24JP¥918.00
JP¥1,425.00
+55.2%
15.8%JP¥1,650.00JP¥1,200.00JP¥803.002
Apr ’24JP¥850.00
JP¥1,425.00
+67.6%
15.8%JP¥1,650.00JP¥1,200.00JP¥830.002
Mar ’24JP¥861.00
JP¥1,425.00
+65.5%
15.8%JP¥1,650.00JP¥1,200.00JP¥825.002
Feb ’24JP¥870.00
JP¥1,425.00
+63.8%
15.8%JP¥1,650.00JP¥1,200.00JP¥840.002
Jan ’24JP¥907.00
JP¥1,425.00
+57.1%
15.8%JP¥1,650.00JP¥1,200.00JP¥807.002
Dec ’23JP¥915.00
JP¥1,525.00
+66.7%
8.2%JP¥1,650.00JP¥1,400.00JP¥1,084.002
Nov ’23JP¥977.00
JP¥1,525.00
+56.1%
8.2%JP¥1,650.00JP¥1,400.00JP¥1,120.002

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price, but analysts are not within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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