Kumiai Chemical Industry Valuation

Q: What is the Fair Price of 4996 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

4996 (¥820) is trading below our estimate of [[fair value]] (¥1766.78)

Is 4996 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

5/6

Valuation Score 5/6

Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of 4996 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: 4996 (¥820) is trading below our estimate of fair value (¥1766.78)

Significantly Below Fair Value: 4996 is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for 4996?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

The above table shows the n/a ratio for 4996. This is calculated by dividing 4996's market cap by their current preferred multiple.
What is 4996's n/a Ratio?
n/a	0x
n/a	n/a
Market Cap	JP¥98.71b

4996 key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	1x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	9.2x
PEG Ratio	-0.9x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does 4996's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for 4996 vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	Forward PE	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	12.7x
4997 Nihon Nohyaku	13.9x	n/a	JP¥52.6b
4992 Hokko Chemical Industry	8.9x	12.1%	JP¥33.9b
4025 Taki Chemical	17.4x	n/a	JP¥30.5b
4979 OAT Agrio	10.6x	21.2%	JP¥18.8b
4996 Kumiai Chemical Industry	6x	-6.6%	JP¥98.7b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: 4996 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (6x) compared to the peer average (12.7x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does 4996's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the JP Chemicals Industry?

0 Companies	Price / Earnings	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Industry Avg.	n/a	12.4%
	n/a	n/a	n/a

Fetching data

0 Companies	Price / Earnings	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Industry Avg.	n/a	12.4%
	n/a	n/a	n/a

No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: 4996 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (6x) compared to the JP Chemicals industry average (11.8x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is 4996's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

4996 PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio	6x
Fair PE Ratio	8.6x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: 4996 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (6x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (8.6x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst 4996 forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
Date	Share Price	Average 1Y Price Target	Dispersion	High	Low	1Y Actual price	Analysts
Current	JP¥820.00	JP¥1,070.00 +30.5%	23.4%	JP¥1,420.00	JP¥850.00	n/a	3
Oct ’25	JP¥846.00	JP¥1,070.00 +26.5%	23.4%	JP¥1,420.00	JP¥850.00	n/a	3
Sep ’25	JP¥777.00	JP¥993.33 +27.8%	15.1%	JP¥1,200.00	JP¥850.00	n/a	3
Aug ’25	JP¥778.00	JP¥993.33 +27.7%	15.1%	JP¥1,200.00	JP¥850.00	n/a	3
Jul ’25	JP¥813.00	JP¥993.33 +22.2%	15.1%	JP¥1,200.00	JP¥850.00	n/a	3
Jun ’25	JP¥769.00	JP¥1,033.33 +34.4%	16.0%	JP¥1,250.00	JP¥850.00	n/a	3
May ’25	JP¥803.00	JP¥1,033.33 +28.7%	16.0%	JP¥1,250.00	JP¥850.00	n/a	3
Apr ’25	JP¥830.00	JP¥1,050.00 +26.5%	17.8%	JP¥1,300.00	JP¥850.00	n/a	3
Mar ’25	JP¥825.00	JP¥1,073.33 +30.1%	17.1%	JP¥1,300.00	JP¥850.00	n/a	3
Feb ’25	JP¥840.00	JP¥1,073.33 +27.8%	17.1%	JP¥1,300.00	JP¥850.00	n/a	3
Jan ’25	JP¥807.00	JP¥1,456.67 +80.5%	14.3%	JP¥1,750.00	JP¥1,300.00	n/a	3
Dec ’24	JP¥1,084.00	JP¥1,456.67 +34.4%	14.3%	JP¥1,750.00	JP¥1,300.00	n/a	3
Nov ’24	JP¥1,120.00	JP¥1,456.67 +30.1%	14.3%	JP¥1,750.00	JP¥1,300.00	JP¥820.00	3
Oct ’24	JP¥1,108.00	JP¥1,456.67 +31.5%	14.3%	JP¥1,750.00	JP¥1,300.00	JP¥846.00	3
Sep ’24	JP¥1,146.00	JP¥1,480.00 +29.1%	15.3%	JP¥1,800.00	JP¥1,300.00	JP¥777.00	3
Aug ’24	JP¥1,071.00	JP¥1,480.00 +38.2%	15.3%	JP¥1,800.00	JP¥1,300.00	JP¥778.00	3
Jul ’24	JP¥1,120.00	JP¥1,480.00 +32.1%	15.3%	JP¥1,800.00	JP¥1,300.00	JP¥813.00	3
Jun ’24	JP¥910.00	JP¥1,425.00 +56.6%	15.8%	JP¥1,650.00	JP¥1,200.00	JP¥769.00	2
May ’24	JP¥918.00	JP¥1,425.00 +55.2%	15.8%	JP¥1,650.00	JP¥1,200.00	JP¥803.00	2
Apr ’24	JP¥850.00	JP¥1,425.00 +67.6%	15.8%	JP¥1,650.00	JP¥1,200.00	JP¥830.00	2
Mar ’24	JP¥861.00	JP¥1,425.00 +65.5%	15.8%	JP¥1,650.00	JP¥1,200.00	JP¥825.00	2
Feb ’24	JP¥870.00	JP¥1,425.00 +63.8%	15.8%	JP¥1,650.00	JP¥1,200.00	JP¥840.00	2
Jan ’24	JP¥907.00	JP¥1,425.00 +57.1%	15.8%	JP¥1,650.00	JP¥1,200.00	JP¥807.00	2
Dec ’23	JP¥915.00	JP¥1,525.00 +66.7%	8.2%	JP¥1,650.00	JP¥1,400.00	JP¥1,084.00	2
Nov ’23	JP¥977.00	JP¥1,525.00 +56.1%	8.2%	JP¥1,650.00	JP¥1,400.00	JP¥1,120.00	2

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price, but analysts are not within a statistically confident range of agreement.