MEC Company Ltd.

TSE:4971 Stock Report

Market Cap: JP¥63.8b

MEC Valuation

Is 4971 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of 4971 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: 4971 (¥3480) is trading below our estimate of fair value (¥5813.67)

Significantly Below Fair Value: 4971 is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for 4971?

Key metric: As 4971 is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for 4971. This is calculated by dividing 4971's market cap by their current earnings.
What is 4971's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio20.2x
EarningsJP¥3.23b
Market CapJP¥63.76b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does 4971's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for 4971 vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average10.3x
4362 Nippon Fine Chemical
15.2x7.9%JP¥56.7b
4008 Sumitomo Seika Chemicals Company
9.7xn/aJP¥64.1b
4365 Matsumoto Yushi-SeiyakuLtd
8xn/aJP¥51.9b
4633 Sakata INX
8.4x7.6%JP¥76.7b
4971 MEC
20.2x14.2%JP¥63.8b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: 4971 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (20.2x) compared to the peer average (10.3x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does 4971's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the JP Chemicals Industry?

1 CompanyPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
4119 Nippon Pigment Holdings
0.6xn/aUS$31.27m
No more companies available in this PE range
4971 20.2xIndustry Avg. 12.1xNo. of Companies19PE0612182430+
1 CompanyEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: 4971 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (20.2x) compared to the JP Chemicals industry average (12.1x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is 4971's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

4971 PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio20.2x
Fair PE Ratio13.6x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: 4971 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (20.2x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (13.6x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst 4971 forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentJP¥3,480.00
JP¥4,700.00
+35.1%
14.0%JP¥5,500.00JP¥4,000.00n/a4
Nov ’25JP¥3,530.00
JP¥4,775.00
+35.3%
12.3%JP¥5,500.00JP¥4,100.00n/a4
Oct ’25JP¥3,715.00
JP¥4,675.00
+25.8%
15.3%JP¥5,500.00JP¥3,700.00n/a4
Sep ’25JP¥3,955.00
JP¥4,500.00
+13.8%
16.6%JP¥5,500.00JP¥3,700.00n/a3
Aug ’25JP¥3,830.00
JP¥4,033.33
+5.3%
1.2%JP¥4,100.00JP¥4,000.00n/a3
Jul ’25JP¥4,445.00
JP¥4,033.33
-9.3%
1.2%JP¥4,100.00JP¥4,000.00n/a3
Jun ’25JP¥4,365.00
JP¥4,033.33
-7.6%
1.2%JP¥4,100.00JP¥4,000.00n/a3
May ’25JP¥4,025.00
JP¥4,100.00
+1.9%
9.1%JP¥4,600.00JP¥3,700.00n/a3
Apr ’25JP¥3,930.00
JP¥4,100.00
+4.3%
9.1%JP¥4,600.00JP¥3,700.00n/a3
Mar ’25JP¥4,580.00
JP¥4,266.67
-6.8%
9.4%JP¥4,600.00JP¥3,700.00n/a3
Feb ’25JP¥4,485.00
JP¥4,266.67
-4.9%
9.4%JP¥4,600.00JP¥3,700.00n/a3
Jan ’25JP¥4,395.00
JP¥4,100.00
-6.7%
9.8%JP¥4,500.00JP¥3,700.00n/a2
Dec ’24JP¥4,020.00
JP¥4,466.67
+11.1%
13.7%JP¥5,200.00JP¥3,700.00n/a3
Nov ’24JP¥3,420.00
JP¥4,166.67
+21.8%
16.7%JP¥4,800.00JP¥3,200.00JP¥3,530.003
Oct ’24JP¥3,700.00
JP¥3,975.00
+7.4%
17.3%JP¥4,800.00JP¥3,200.00JP¥3,715.004
Sep ’24JP¥3,830.00
JP¥3,766.67
-1.7%
17.7%JP¥4,700.00JP¥3,200.00JP¥3,955.003
Aug ’24JP¥3,495.00
JP¥3,575.00
+2.3%
18.6%JP¥4,700.00JP¥3,000.00JP¥3,830.004
Jul ’24JP¥3,525.00
JP¥3,200.00
-9.2%
5.1%JP¥3,400.00JP¥3,000.00JP¥4,445.003
Jun ’24JP¥3,185.00
JP¥3,200.00
+0.5%
5.1%JP¥3,400.00JP¥3,000.00JP¥4,365.003
May ’24JP¥2,554.00
JP¥3,200.00
+25.3%
5.1%JP¥3,400.00JP¥3,000.00JP¥4,025.003
Apr ’24JP¥2,561.00
JP¥3,200.00
+25.0%
5.1%JP¥3,400.00JP¥3,000.00JP¥3,930.003
Mar ’24JP¥2,360.00
JP¥3,333.33
+41.2%
10.2%JP¥3,800.00JP¥3,000.00JP¥4,580.003
Feb ’24JP¥2,496.00
JP¥3,933.33
+57.6%
10.7%JP¥4,500.00JP¥3,500.00JP¥4,485.003
Jan ’24JP¥2,078.00
JP¥3,933.33
+89.3%
10.7%JP¥4,500.00JP¥3,500.00JP¥4,395.003
Dec ’23JP¥2,636.00
JP¥4,033.33
+53.0%
10.2%JP¥4,500.00JP¥3,500.00JP¥4,020.003
Nov ’23JP¥2,370.00
JP¥4,033.33
+70.2%
10.2%JP¥4,500.00JP¥3,500.00JP¥3,420.003

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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