Nippon Paint Holdings Co., Ltd. Earnings Missed Analyst Estimates: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting Now

As you might know, Nippon Paint Holdings Co., Ltd. (TSE:4612) last week released its latest third-quarter, and things did not turn out so great for shareholders. Nippon Paint Holdings missed analyst forecasts, with revenues of JP¥406b and statutory earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥13.56, falling short by 4.4% and 8.1% respectively. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Nippon Paint Holdings after the latest results.

View our latest analysis for Nippon Paint Holdings

Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from Nippon Paint Holdings' eleven analysts is for revenues of JP¥1.71t in 2025. This would reflect a decent 8.3% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to climb 14% to JP¥59.91. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of JP¥1.71t and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥59.94 in 2025. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.

It will come as no surprise then, to learn that the consensus price target is largely unchanged at JP¥1,165. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. There are some variant perceptions on Nippon Paint Holdings, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at JP¥1,380 and the most bearish at JP¥950 per share. Analysts definitely have varying views on the business, but the spread of estimates is not wide enough in our view to suggest that extreme outcomes could await Nippon Paint Holdings shareholders.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Nippon Paint Holdings' revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2025 expected to display 6.6% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 19% over the past five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 5.2% annually. Even after the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that Nippon Paint Holdings is also expected to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Additionally, our data suggests that revenue is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have estimates - from multiple Nippon Paint Holdings analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

It is also worth noting that we have found 1 warning sign for Nippon Paint Holdings that you need to take into consideration.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.