Adeka Future Growth
Future criteria checks 1/6
Adeka is forecast to grow earnings and revenue by 8.6% and 4.6% per annum respectively. EPS is expected to grow by 9.7% per annum. Return on equity is forecast to be 10.1% in 3 years.
Key information
8.6%
Earnings growth rate
9.67%
EPS growth rate
| Chemicals earnings growth | 13.4% |
| Revenue growth rate | 4.6% |
| Future return on equity | 10.06% |
| Analyst coverage | Good |
| Last updated | 23 Mar 2026 |
Recent future growth updates
Recent updates
Narrative Update • Apr 21
4401: Renewable Plastics Alliance And Steady Guidance Will Shape Balanced Future Prospects
Adeka's analyst price target remains steady at ¥4,420, with only small tweaks to the discount rate and forward P/E assumptions as analysts fine tune their models rather than rethink the core outlook. What's in the News Adeka revised its consolidated earnings guidance for the fiscal year ending March 31, 2026, with net sales now expected at ¥415,000 million and operating profit at ¥41,500 million.Narrative Update • Apr 06
4401: Share Buybacks And Renewable Plastics Initiative Will Support Future Upside Potential
Adeka’s analyst price target has shifted from ¥4,344 to ¥4,420. Analysts point to updated assumptions for revenue growth, profit margins, discount rate, and a higher future P/E as the key drivers behind this recalibration.Narrative Update • Mar 23
4401: Revised Guidance And Share Buybacks Will Support Future Upside Potential
Adeka's analyst price target has been adjusted from ¥4,398 to ¥4,344 as analysts update their assumptions on fair value, discount rate, revenue growth, profit margin and future P/E to reflect the latest inputs. What's in the News Adeka revised its consolidated earnings guidance for the fiscal year ending March 31, 2026.Narrative Update • Mar 08
4401: Softer Guidance And Buybacks Will Likely Limit Future Share Upside
Analysts have maintained their fair value estimate for Adeka at ¥4,398, with a slightly lower discount rate and minor adjustments to revenue growth, profit margin, and future P/E assumptions supporting an unchanged price target outlook. What's in the News Adeka revised consolidated guidance for the fiscal year ending March 31, 2026, now expecting net sales of ¥415,000 million, operating profit of ¥41,500 million, profit attributable to owners of the parent of ¥25,500 million, and basic EPS of ¥257.70.Narrative Update • Feb 21
4401: Revised Guidance And Buybacks Will Likely Cap Future Share Upside
Analysts have raised their price target on Adeka from ¥4,238 to approximately ¥4,398, reflecting updated assumptions around fair value, discount rate, revenue growth, profit margins and future P/E levels. What's in the News Adeka lowered its consolidated earnings guidance for the fiscal year ending March 31, 2026, now expecting net sales of ¥415,000 million, operating profit of ¥41,500 million, profit attributable to owners of the parent of ¥25,500 million, and basic earnings per share of ¥257.70, compared with previous guidance of net sales of ¥441,000 million, operating profit of ¥43,000 million, profit attributable to owners of the parent of ¥26,400 million, and basic earnings per share of ¥262.97 (Key Developments).Narrative Update • Feb 06
4401: Rising Payouts And Buybacks Will Likely Constrain Future Share Returns
Narrative Update on Adeka The analyst price target for Adeka has been revised from ¥3,998 to ¥4,238. Analysts point to small adjustments in the discount rate, profit margin assumptions, and a slightly higher future P/E multiple as the key drivers of this change.Narrative Update • Jan 22
4401: Higher Dividend And Guided Earnings Will Likely Limit Future Upside
Analysts have revised their price target for Adeka slightly higher to ¥3,998 from ¥3,981, reflecting modest tweaks to assumptions around fair value, discount rate, revenue growth, profit margin, and future P/E. What's in the News Adeka announced a second quarter end dividend of ¥52.00 per share for the six months ended September 30, 2025, compared with ¥48.00 per share a year earlier, with dividend payments scheduled to start on December 4, 2025 (Key Developments).Analysis Article • Jan 20
Does Adeka (TSE:4401) Have A Healthy Balance Sheet?
Legendary fund manager Li Lu (who Charlie Munger backed) once said, 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility...Narrative Update • Jan 08
4401: Higher Dividend And Stable Outlook Will Support Measured Future Returns
Analysts have held Adeka's fair value estimate steady at ¥3,981.67 per share while making only minimal tweaks to assumptions such as discount rate, long term revenue growth, profit margin and future P/E, reflecting a broadly unchanged outlook on the stock's intrinsic value. What's in the News Adeka announced a second quarter end dividend of ¥52.00 per share for the six months ended September 30, 2025, compared with ¥48.00 per share for the same period a year earlier, with payments scheduled to start on December 4, 2025 (Key Developments).Analysis Article • Jan 06
An Intrinsic Calculation For Adeka Corporation (TSE:4401) Suggests It's 37% Undervalued
Key Insights The projected fair value for Adeka is JP¥6,463 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity Adeka is...Narrative Update • Dec 25
4401: Dividend Hike And Buyback Will Support Steady Outlook
Adeka's analyst price target remained effectively unchanged at JPY 3,981.67, as analysts maintained their outlook in light of only marginal adjustments to the discount rate, revenue growth, profit margin, and future valuation assumptions. What's in the News Adeka increased its second quarter end dividend to JPY 52.00 per share for the six months ended September 30, 2025, up from JPY 48.00 a year earlier.Analysis Article • Dec 23
Earnings Tell The Story For Adeka Corporation (TSE:4401)
There wouldn't be many who think Adeka Corporation's ( TSE:4401 ) price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 15x is worth a...Narrative Update • Dec 10
4401: Dividend Increase And Buyback Are Expected To Support Stable Outlook
Analysts have modestly raised their price target on Adeka to approximately ¥3,982 from about ¥3,915. This change reflects slightly lower perceived risk, marginally softer growth and margin expectations, and a higher justified future earnings multiple.Narrative Update • Nov 26
4401: Share Repurchase And Higher Dividend Are Expected To Support Stability
Narrative Update on Adeka: Analyst Price Target Revision Analysts have raised their price target for Adeka from ¥3,915 to ¥3,915.00, citing improvements in projected revenue growth and profit margins. This revision is supported by updated financial forecasts.Narrative Update • Nov 07
4401: Share Buyback Completion And Lower Discount Rate Will Support Stability
Adeka's analyst price target has been revised upward from ¥3,865 to ¥3,915, reflecting analysts' confidence in the company's modest improvements to its fair value estimate and a reduced discount rate. What's in the News The company completed the repurchase of 1,406,300 shares, representing 1.38% of total shares, for ¥4,589.43 million under the buyback announced on August 8, 2025 (Key Developments).Analysis Article • Nov 04
Adeka's (TSE:4401) Returns On Capital Are Heading Higher
If we want to find a stock that could multiply over the long term, what are the underlying trends we should look for...Narrative Update • Oct 24
Share Repurchases And Cash Returns Will Support Electronics and Materials Expansion
Narrative Update on Adeka: Analyst Price Target Revision Analysts have maintained their fair value estimate for Adeka at ¥3,865, with slight adjustments to underlying assumptions. This reflects stable expectations for the company's outlook.Narrative Update • Oct 10
Semiconductor Recovery And AI Investments Will Drive Future Opportunities In Electronics And Environmental Materials
Adeka’s analyst consensus price target has increased from ¥3,655.71 to ¥3,865.00, as analysts cite slightly improved fair value calculations and updates to various key estimates. What's in the News Completed share repurchase of 1,406,300 shares, representing 1.38% for ¥4,589.43 million between August 8, 2025 and September 30, 2025 under the previously announced buyback (Key Developments).Analysis Article • Sep 01
Adeka (TSE:4401) Will Pay A Dividend Of ¥52.00
The board of Adeka Corporation ( TSE:4401 ) has announced that it will pay a dividend on the 5th of December, with...Narrative Update • Aug 27
Semiconductor Recovery And AI Investments Will Drive Future Opportunities In Electronics And Environmental Materials
Despite a notable downgrade in revenue growth forecasts and a higher forward P/E ratio, Adeka’s consensus analyst price target has been raised from ¥3397 to ¥3656. What's in the News Adeka issued consolidated earnings guidance, expecting FY net sales of JPY 441,000 million, operating profit of JPY 43,000 million, and EPS of JPY 259.49.Analysis Article • Aug 12
Adeka (TSE:4401) Is Due To Pay A Dividend Of ¥52.00
The board of Adeka Corporation ( TSE:4401 ) has announced that it will pay a dividend of ¥52.00 per share on the 5th of...Analysis Article • Jul 24
Adeka (TSE:4401) Will Pay A Dividend Of ¥52.00
Adeka Corporation's ( TSE:4401 ) investors are due to receive a payment of ¥52.00 per share on 5th of December. This...Analysis Article • Jul 10
Adeka (TSE:4401) Will Pay A Dividend Of ¥52.00
The board of Adeka Corporation ( TSE:4401 ) has announced that it will pay a dividend on the 5th of December, with...Analysis Article • Jul 08
Here's Why Adeka (TSE:4401) Can Manage Its Debt Responsibly
Some say volatility, rather than debt, is the best way to think about risk as an investor, but Warren Buffett famously...Analysis Article • May 15
Returns Are Gaining Momentum At Adeka (TSE:4401)
What are the early trends we should look for to identify a stock that could multiply in value over the long term...Analysis Article • Apr 26
At JP¥2,557, Is Adeka Corporation (TSE:4401) Worth Looking At Closely?
While Adeka Corporation ( TSE:4401 ) might not have the largest market cap around , it saw a decent share price growth...
New Narrative • Feb 14
Semiconductor Recovery And AI Investments Will Drive Future Opportunities In Electronics And Environmental Materials
Restructuring into Electronics and Environmental Materials divisions aims to boost future revenue and margins through efficiency and collaboration.Analysis Article • Feb 09
Adeka (TSE:4401) Seems To Use Debt Quite Sensibly
The external fund manager backed by Berkshire Hathaway's Charlie Munger, Li Lu, makes no bones about it when he says...Analysis Article • Sep 12
Slowing Rates Of Return At Adeka (TSE:4401) Leave Little Room For Excitement
If you're not sure where to start when looking for the next multi-bagger, there are a few key trends you should keep an...Analysis Article • Aug 28
Adeka (TSE:4401) Is Due To Pay A Dividend Of ¥45.00
Adeka Corporation's ( TSE:4401 ) investors are due to receive a payment of ¥45.00 per share on 5th of December. This...Analysis Article • Aug 14
Adeka (TSE:4401) Will Pay A Dividend Of ¥45.00
The board of Adeka Corporation ( TSE:4401 ) has announced that it will pay a dividend on the 5th of December, with...Analysis Article • Aug 12
Is There Now An Opportunity In Adeka Corporation (TSE:4401)?
While Adeka Corporation ( TSE:4401 ) might not have the largest market cap around , it saw a decent share price growth...Analysis Article • Jul 26
Adeka (TSE:4401) Will Pay A Dividend Of ¥45.00
Adeka Corporation ( TSE:4401 ) will pay a dividend of ¥45.00 on the 5th of December. This will take the dividend yield...Analysis Article • Jul 12
Adeka (TSE:4401) Has Announced A Dividend Of ¥45.00
Adeka Corporation's ( TSE:4401 ) investors are due to receive a payment of ¥45.00 per share on 5th of December. This...Analysis Article • Jun 03
Is Adeka (TSE:4401) A Risky Investment?
The external fund manager backed by Berkshire Hathaway's Charlie Munger, Li Lu, makes no bones about it when he says...Analysis Article • May 09
The Price Is Right For Adeka Corporation (TSE:4401)
With a price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 18.6x Adeka Corporation ( TSE:4401 ) may be sending bearish signals at the...Analysis Article • Apr 08
Is There An Opportunity With Adeka Corporation's (TSE:4401) 40% Undervaluation?
Key Insights The projected fair value for Adeka is JP¥5,549 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity Adeka is...Analysis Article • Mar 19
Adeka (TSE:4401) Has More To Do To Multiply In Value Going Forward
Did you know there are some financial metrics that can provide clues of a potential multi-bagger? Amongst other things...Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts
| Date | Revenue | Earnings | Free Cash Flow | Cash from Op | Avg. No. Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3/31/2029 | 473,350 | 32,900 | 31,600 | N/A | 2 |
| 3/31/2028 | 456,240 | 31,580 | 25,613 | N/A | 5 |
| 3/31/2027 | 443,425 | 28,967 | 19,203 | N/A | 6 |
| 3/31/2026 | 420,300 | 25,940 | 22,706 | N/A | 5 |
| 12/31/2025 | 407,552 | 25,666 | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 9/30/2025 | 407,780 | 25,953 | 28,424 | 44,520 | N/A |
| 6/30/2025 | 410,585 | 25,443 | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 3/31/2025 | 407,145 | 25,019 | 30,008 | 46,235 | N/A |
| 12/31/2024 | 409,663 | 25,730 | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 9/30/2024 | 407,185 | 23,912 | 30,225 | 48,290 | N/A |
| 6/30/2024 | 403,334 | 24,678 | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 3/31/2024 | 399,770 | 22,977 | 20,203 | 41,954 | N/A |
| 12/31/2023 | 393,650 | 18,549 | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 9/30/2023 | 394,524 | 17,348 | 8,873 | 30,643 | N/A |
| 6/30/2023 | 396,221 | 15,761 | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 3/31/2023 | 403,343 | 16,778 | -603 | 17,253 | N/A |
| 12/31/2022 | 398,195 | 19,308 | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 9/30/2022 | 391,113 | 23,037 | -3,610 | 13,152 | N/A |
| 6/30/2022 | 380,694 | 23,927 | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 3/31/2022 | 363,034 | 23,744 | 7,768 | 21,367 | N/A |
| 12/31/2021 | 374,259 | 25,135 | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 9/30/2021 | 356,849 | 21,383 | 24,264 | 38,006 | N/A |
| 6/30/2021 | 343,289 | 19,269 | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 3/31/2021 | 327,080 | 16,419 | 22,420 | 36,872 | N/A |
| 12/31/2020 | 299,605 | 15,506 | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 9/30/2020 | 296,590 | 15,021 | 14,496 | 31,697 | N/A |
| 6/30/2020 | 301,825 | 15,106 | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 3/31/2020 | 304,131 | 15,216 | 9,375 | 27,398 | N/A |
| 12/31/2019 | 316,443 | 15,830 | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 9/30/2019 | 319,399 | 15,217 | N/A | 24,624 | N/A |
| 6/30/2019 | 307,730 | 16,179 | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 3/31/2019 | 299,354 | 17,055 | N/A | 18,331 | N/A |
| 12/31/2018 | 263,831 | 14,549 | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 9/30/2018 | 251,027 | 15,840 | N/A | 25,122 | N/A |
| 6/30/2018 | 243,909 | 15,576 | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 3/31/2018 | 239,612 | 15,346 | N/A | 22,221 | N/A |
| 12/31/2017 | 234,866 | 16,398 | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 9/30/2017 | 229,257 | 16,502 | N/A | 19,750 | N/A |
| 6/30/2017 | 227,333 | 16,363 | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 3/31/2017 | 223,440 | 15,325 | N/A | 22,183 | N/A |
| 12/31/2016 | 220,794 | 14,385 | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 9/30/2016 | 221,944 | 13,481 | N/A | 25,413 | N/A |
| 6/30/2016 | 222,955 | 12,791 | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 3/31/2016 | 222,746 | 13,259 | N/A | 23,806 | N/A |
| 12/31/2015 | 224,416 | 13,449 | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 9/30/2015 | 223,832 | 12,419 | N/A | 19,677 | N/A |
| 6/30/2015 | 217,845 | 12,325 | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Analyst Future Growth Forecasts
Earnings vs Savings Rate: 4401's forecast earnings growth (8.6% per year) is above the savings rate (0.8%).
Earnings vs Market: 4401's earnings (8.6% per year) are forecast to grow slower than the JP market (10.1% per year).
High Growth Earnings: 4401's earnings are forecast to grow, but not significantly.
Revenue vs Market: 4401's revenue (4.6% per year) is forecast to grow slower than the JP market (5.9% per year).
High Growth Revenue: 4401's revenue (4.6% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.
Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts
Future Return on Equity
Future ROE: 4401's Return on Equity is forecast to be low in 3 years time (10.1%).
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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status
| Data | Last Updated (UTC time) |
|---|---|
| Company Analysis | 2026/05/07 13:17 |
| End of Day Share Price | 2026/05/07 00:00 |
| Earnings | 2025/12/31 |
| Annual Earnings | 2025/03/31 |
Data Sources
The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.
| Package | Data | Timeframe | Example US Source * |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company Financials | 10 years |
| |
| Analyst Consensus Estimates | +3 years |
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| Market Prices | 30 years |
| |
| Ownership | 10 years |
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| Management | 10 years |
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| Key Developments | 10 years |
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* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.
Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.
Analysis Model and Snowflake
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Industry and Sector Metrics
Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.
Analyst Sources
Adeka Corporation is covered by 12 analysts. 6 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.
| Analyst | Institution |
|---|---|
| Niima Komura | BofA Global Research |
| Yusuke Miura | Daiwa Securities Co. Ltd. |
| Koichi Hariya | Ichiyoshi Research Institute Inc. |