KEIWA Incorporated

TSE:4251 Stock Report

Market Cap: JP¥19.6b

KEIWA Valuation

Is 4251 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

5/6

Valuation Score 5/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of 4251 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: 4251 (¥1014) is trading below our estimate of fair value (¥3335.26)

Significantly Below Fair Value: 4251 is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for 4251?

Key metric: As 4251 is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for 4251. This is calculated by dividing 4251's market cap by their current earnings.
What is 4251's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio7.5x
EarningsJP¥2.61b
Market CapJP¥19.55b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does 4251's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for 4251 vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average25.2x
4229 Gun Ei Chemical Industry
10.4xn/aJP¥18.2b
4092 Nippon Chemical Industrial
8.2x6.0%JP¥21.5b
4228 Sekisui Kasei
65.8xn/aJP¥16.6b
4968 Arakawa Chemical Industries
16.6x34.6%JP¥22.4b
4251 KEIWA
7.5x8.9%JP¥19.6b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: 4251 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (7.5x) compared to the peer average (25.2x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does 4251's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the JP Chemicals Industry?

1 CompanyPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
4119 Nippon Pigment Holdings
0.7xn/aUS$31.38m
No more companies available in this PE range
4251 7.5xIndustry Avg. 12.0xNo. of Companies20PE0612182430+
1 CompanyEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: 4251 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (7.5x) compared to the JP Chemicals industry average (12x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is 4251's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

4251 PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio7.5x
Fair PE Ratio11.2x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: 4251 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (7.5x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (11.2x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst 4251 forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentJP¥1,014.00
JP¥1,400.00
+38.1%
14.3%JP¥1,600.00JP¥1,200.00n/a2
Nov ’25JP¥1,014.00
JP¥1,400.00
+38.1%
14.3%JP¥1,600.00JP¥1,200.00n/a2
Oct ’25JP¥1,107.00
JP¥1,400.00
+26.5%
14.3%JP¥1,600.00JP¥1,200.00n/a2
Sep ’25JP¥1,159.00
JP¥1,600.00
+38.1%
25.0%JP¥2,000.00JP¥1,200.00n/a2
Mar ’25JP¥1,110.00
JP¥1,500.00
+35.1%
26.7%JP¥1,900.00JP¥1,100.00n/a2
Feb ’25JP¥1,368.00
JP¥1,500.00
+9.6%
26.7%JP¥1,900.00JP¥1,100.00n/a2
Jan ’25JP¥1,280.00
JP¥1,500.00
+17.2%
26.7%JP¥1,900.00JP¥1,100.00n/a2
Dec ’24JP¥1,322.00
JP¥1,500.00
+13.5%
26.7%JP¥1,900.00JP¥1,100.00n/a2
Nov ’24JP¥1,306.00
JP¥1,500.00
+14.9%
26.7%JP¥1,900.00JP¥1,100.00JP¥1,014.002
Oct ’24JP¥1,415.00
JP¥1,500.00
+6.0%
26.7%JP¥1,900.00JP¥1,100.00JP¥1,107.002
Sep ’24JP¥1,207.00
JP¥1,500.00
+24.3%
26.7%JP¥1,900.00JP¥1,100.00JP¥1,159.002
Aug ’24JP¥1,070.00
JP¥1,500.00
+40.2%
26.7%JP¥1,900.00JP¥1,100.00JP¥1,460.002
Jul ’24JP¥1,136.00
JP¥1,500.00
+32.0%
26.7%JP¥1,900.00JP¥1,100.00JP¥1,734.002
Jun ’24JP¥1,064.00
JP¥1,500.00
+41.0%
26.7%JP¥1,900.00JP¥1,100.00JP¥1,540.002
May ’24JP¥1,392.00
JP¥2,850.00
+104.7%
12.3%JP¥3,200.00JP¥2,500.00JP¥1,158.002
Apr ’24JP¥1,525.00
JP¥2,850.00
+86.9%
12.3%JP¥3,200.00JP¥2,500.00JP¥1,138.002

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price, but there are not enough analysts covering the stock to determine statistical confidence in agreement.

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