Daicel Corporation Just Missed Earnings - But Analysts Have Updated Their Models

As you might know, Daicel Corporation (TSE:4202) last week released its latest third-quarter, and things did not turn out so great for shareholders. It wasn't a great result overall - while revenue fell marginally short of analyst estimates at JP¥143b, statutory earnings missed forecasts by 16%, coming in at just JP¥44.12 per share. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

View our latest analysis for Daicel

Following the latest results, Daicel's nine analysts are now forecasting revenues of JP¥622.6b in 2026. This would be a solid 8.0% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to accumulate 2.3% to JP¥212. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of JP¥622.4b and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥215 in 2026. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.

It will come as no surprise then, to learn that the consensus price target is largely unchanged at JP¥1,781. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. The most optimistic Daicel analyst has a price target of JP¥2,400 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at JP¥1,260. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Daicel's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2026 expected to display 6.4% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 9.1% over the past five years. Juxtapose this against the other companies in the industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenues (in aggregate) 5.0% per year. So it's pretty clear that, while Daicel's revenue growth is expected to slow, it's still expected to grow faster than the industry itself.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at JP¥1,781, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Daicel. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Daicel going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here..

You still need to take note of risks, for example - Daicel has 2 warning signs we think you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.