Daicel Corporation Earnings Missed Analyst Estimates: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting Now

The annual results for Daicel Corporation (TSE:4202) were released last week, making it a good time to revisit its performance. Revenues of JP¥587b were in line with forecasts, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) came in below expectations at JP¥181, missing estimates by 9.5%. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

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Following last week's earnings report, Daicel's eight analysts are forecasting 2026 revenues to be JP¥594.7b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to grow 13% to JP¥210. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of JP¥608.5b and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥217 in 2026. The analysts are less bullish than they were before these results, given the reduced revenue forecasts and the small dip in earnings per share expectations.

Check out our latest analysis for Daicel

The consensus price target fell 7.4% to JP¥1,561, with the weaker earnings outlook clearly leading valuation estimates. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. There are some variant perceptions on Daicel, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at JP¥2,400 and the most bearish at JP¥1,170 per share. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Daicel's past performance and to peers in the same industry. We would highlight that Daicel's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 1.4% annualised growth rate until the end of 2026 being well below the historical 9.3% p.a. growth over the last five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 4.0% per year. So it's pretty clear that, while revenue growth is expected to slow down, the wider industry is also expected to grow faster than Daicel.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. On the negative side, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. Furthermore, the analysts also cut their price targets, suggesting that the latest news has led to greater pessimism about the intrinsic value of the business.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Daicel going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here..

Don't forget that there may still be risks. For instance, we've identified 1 warning sign for Daicel that you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.