There's Reason For Concern Over Advance Create Co., Ltd.'s (TSE:8798) Massive 30% Price Jump

Advance Create Co., Ltd. (TSE:8798) shareholders have had their patience rewarded with a 30% share price jump in the last month. But the last month did very little to improve the 65% share price decline over the last year.

Since its price has surged higher, when almost half of the companies in Japan's Insurance industry have price-to-sales ratios (or "P/S") below 0.8x, you may consider Advance Create as a stock probably not worth researching with its 1.4x P/S ratio. Although, it's not wise to just take the P/S at face value as there may be an explanation why it's as high as it is.

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See our latest analysis for Advance Create

How Has Advance Create Performed Recently?

As an illustration, revenue has deteriorated at Advance Create over the last year, which is not ideal at all. It might be that many expect the company to still outplay most other companies over the coming period, which has kept the P/S from collapsing. If not, then existing shareholders may be quite nervous about the viability of the share price.

Want the full picture on earnings, revenue and cash flow for the company? Then our free report on Advance Create will help you shine a light on its historical performance.

What Are Revenue Growth Metrics Telling Us About The High P/S?

Advance Create's P/S ratio would be typical for a company that's expected to deliver solid growth, and importantly, perform better than the industry.

Taking a look back first, the company's revenue growth last year wasn't something to get excited about as it posted a disappointing decline of 29%. As a result, revenue from three years ago have also fallen 29% overall. So unfortunately, we have to acknowledge that the company has not done a great job of growing revenue over that time.

Comparing that to the industry, which is predicted to deliver 8.1% growth in the next 12 months, the company's downward momentum based on recent medium-term revenue results is a sobering picture.

In light of this, it's alarming that Advance Create's P/S sits above the majority of other companies. It seems most investors are ignoring the recent poor growth rate and are hoping for a turnaround in the company's business prospects. There's a very good chance existing shareholders are setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/S falls to levels more in line with the recent negative growth rates.

The Final Word

Advance Create's P/S is on the rise since its shares have risen strongly. Generally, our preference is to limit the use of the price-to-sales ratio to establishing what the market thinks about the overall health of a company.

We've established that Advance Create currently trades on a much higher than expected P/S since its recent revenues have been in decline over the medium-term. Right now we aren't comfortable with the high P/S as this revenue performance is highly unlikely to support such positive sentiment for long. If recent medium-term revenue trends continue, it will place shareholders' investments at significant risk and potential investors in danger of paying an excessive premium.

Having said that, be aware Advance Create is showing 5 warning signs in our investment analysis, and 4 of those don't sit too well with us.

Of course, profitable companies with a history of great earnings growth are generally safer bets. So you may wish to see this free collection of other companies that have reasonable P/E ratios and have grown earnings strongly.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.