Fancl Corporation

TSE:4921 Stock Report

Market Cap: JP¥338.0b

Fancl Valuation

Is 4921 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

0/6

Valuation Score 0/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of 4921 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: 4921 (¥2793.5) is trading above our estimate of fair value (¥2432.45)

Significantly Below Fair Value: 4921 is trading above our estimate of fair value.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for 4921?

Key metric: As 4921 is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for 4921. This is calculated by dividing 4921's market cap by their current earnings.
What is 4921's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio47.8x
EarningsJP¥7.07b
Market CapJP¥337.95b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does 4921's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for 4921 vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average37.4x
4927 Pola Orbis Holdings
41.2x12.5%JP¥301.8b
4922 KOSÉ
48.4x21.3%JP¥383.5b
4967 Kobayashi Pharmaceutical
38.8x16.7%JP¥395.0b
4928 Noevir Holdings
21.3x2.5%JP¥170.1b
4921 Fancl
47.8x15.6%JP¥338.0b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: 4921 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (47.8x) compared to the peer average (37.4x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does 4921's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the JP Personal Products Industry?

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies available in this PE range
4921 47.8xIndustry Avg. 24.6xNo. of Companies5PE01632486480+
0 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: 4921 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (47.8x) compared to the JP Personal Products industry average (24.6x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is 4921's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

4921 PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio47.8x
Fair PE Ratio30.2x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: 4921 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (47.8x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (30.2x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst 4921 forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentJP¥2,793.50
JP¥2,420.00
-13.4%
7.0%JP¥2,600.00JP¥2,170.00n/a4
Nov ’25JP¥2,791.50
JP¥2,420.00
-13.3%
7.0%JP¥2,600.00JP¥2,170.00n/a4
Oct ’25JP¥2,790.00
JP¥2,420.00
-13.3%
7.0%JP¥2,600.00JP¥2,170.00n/a4
Sep ’25JP¥2,800.00
JP¥2,456.00
-12.3%
6.8%JP¥2,600.00JP¥2,170.00n/a5
Aug ’25JP¥2,900.00
JP¥2,456.00
-15.3%
6.8%JP¥2,600.00JP¥2,170.00n/a5
Jul ’25JP¥2,732.50
JP¥2,456.00
-10.1%
6.8%JP¥2,600.00JP¥2,170.00n/a5
Jun ’25JP¥1,973.00
JP¥2,455.00
+24.4%
6.2%JP¥2,600.00JP¥2,170.00n/a6
May ’25JP¥1,856.50
JP¥2,576.67
+38.8%
6.5%JP¥2,900.00JP¥2,350.00n/a6
Apr ’25JP¥2,028.50
JP¥2,576.67
+27.0%
6.5%JP¥2,900.00JP¥2,350.00n/a6
Mar ’25JP¥2,062.00
JP¥2,678.00
+29.9%
7.0%JP¥2,900.00JP¥2,350.00n/a5
Feb ’25JP¥2,365.00
JP¥2,855.71
+20.7%
11.9%JP¥3,500.00JP¥2,350.00n/a7
Jan ’25JP¥2,371.00
JP¥2,865.00
+20.8%
12.8%JP¥3,500.00JP¥2,350.00n/a6
Dec ’24JP¥2,307.50
JP¥2,830.00
+22.6%
12.4%JP¥3,500.00JP¥2,350.00n/a8
Nov ’24JP¥2,251.00
JP¥2,763.33
+22.8%
13.5%JP¥3,500.00JP¥2,350.00JP¥2,791.509
Oct ’24JP¥2,284.00
JP¥2,858.75
+25.2%
11.6%JP¥3,500.00JP¥2,450.00JP¥2,790.008
Sep ’24JP¥2,566.00
JP¥2,858.75
+11.4%
11.6%JP¥3,500.00JP¥2,450.00JP¥2,800.008
Aug ’24JP¥2,467.50
JP¥2,712.50
+9.9%
13.0%JP¥3,500.00JP¥2,300.00JP¥2,900.008
Jul ’24JP¥2,400.00
JP¥2,666.67
+11.1%
13.4%JP¥3,500.00JP¥2,300.00JP¥2,732.509
Jun ’24JP¥2,306.00
JP¥2,812.22
+22.0%
14.5%JP¥3,500.00JP¥2,300.00JP¥1,973.009
May ’24JP¥2,417.00
JP¥2,882.22
+19.2%
13.4%JP¥3,500.00JP¥2,300.00JP¥1,856.509
Apr ’24JP¥2,433.00
JP¥2,882.22
+18.5%
13.4%JP¥3,500.00JP¥2,300.00JP¥2,028.509
Mar ’24JP¥2,493.00
JP¥3,117.00
+25.0%
25.3%JP¥5,200.00JP¥2,300.00JP¥2,062.0010
Feb ’24JP¥2,615.00
JP¥3,127.00
+19.6%
25.2%JP¥5,200.00JP¥2,300.00JP¥2,365.0010
Jan ’24JP¥2,688.00
JP¥3,060.91
+13.9%
25.3%JP¥5,200.00JP¥2,300.00JP¥2,371.0011
Dec ’23JP¥2,623.00
JP¥3,088.18
+17.7%
24.7%JP¥5,200.00JP¥2,400.00JP¥2,307.5011
Nov ’23JP¥2,782.00
JP¥3,139.09
+12.8%
24.4%JP¥5,200.00JP¥2,400.00JP¥2,251.0011

Analyst Forecast: Target price is lower than the current share price.

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