Shiseido Company, Limited Earnings Missed Analyst Estimates: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting Now

As you might know, Shiseido Company, Limited (TSE:4911) last week released its latest quarterly, and things did not turn out so great for shareholders. It looks like quite a negative result overall, with both revenues and earnings falling well short of analyst predictions. Revenues of JP¥214b missed by 10%, and statutory earnings per share of JP¥1.85 fell short of forecasts by 88%. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

View our latest analysis for Shiseido Company

Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Shiseido Company from 14 analysts is for revenues of JP¥1.05t in 2025. If met, it would imply a satisfactory 7.8% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to shoot up 2,382% to JP¥123. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of JP¥1.07t and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥143 in 2025. So there's definitely been a decline in sentiment after the latest results, noting the real cut to new EPS forecasts.

It might be a surprise to learn that the consensus price target fell 13% to JP¥3,646, with the analysts clearly linking lower forecast earnings to the performance of the stock price. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. There are some variant perceptions on Shiseido Company, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at JP¥4,600 and the most bearish at JP¥3,000 per share. There are definitely some different views on the stock, but the range of estimates is not wide enough as to imply that the situation is unforecastable, in our view.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. One thing stands out from these estimates, which is that Shiseido Company is forecast to grow faster in the future than it has in the past, with revenues expected to display 6.2% annualised growth until the end of 2025. If achieved, this would be a much better result than the 0.9% annual decline over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 4.6% per year. Not only are Shiseido Company's revenues expected to improve, it seems that the analysts are also expecting it to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Shiseido Company. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Additionally, our data suggests that revenue is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. Furthermore, the analysts also cut their price targets, suggesting that the latest news has led to greater pessimism about the intrinsic value of the business.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have forecasts for Shiseido Company going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

We don't want to rain on the parade too much, but we did also find 4 warning signs for Shiseido Company (1 is concerning!) that you need to be mindful of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.