Toho Holdings Co., Ltd. Just Beat Revenue By 6.6%: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next

Investors in Toho Holdings Co., Ltd. (TSE:8129) had a good week, as its shares rose 5.3% to close at JP¥4,314 following the release of its first-quarter results. It was a workmanlike result, with revenues of JP¥373b coming in 6.6% ahead of expectations, and statutory earnings per share of JP¥320, in line with analyst appraisals. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.

See our latest analysis for Toho Holdings

Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus, from the four analysts covering Toho Holdings, is for revenues of JP¥1.45t in 2025. This implies a noticeable 3.1% reduction in Toho Holdings' revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are expected to dive 44% to JP¥188 in the same period. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of JP¥1.45t and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥194 in 2025. So it looks like there's been a small decline in overall sentiment after the recent results - there's been no major change to revenue estimates, but the analysts did make a small dip in their earnings per share forecasts.

It might be a surprise to learn that the consensus price target was broadly unchanged at JP¥3,955, with the analysts clearly implying that the forecast decline in earnings is not expected to have much of an impact on valuation. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. The most optimistic Toho Holdings analyst has a price target of JP¥5,300 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at JP¥2,700. Note the wide gap in analyst price targets? This implies to us that there is a fairly broad range of possible scenarios for the underlying business.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. These estimates imply that revenue is expected to slow, with a forecast annualised decline of 4.1% by the end of 2025. This indicates a significant reduction from annual growth of 4.1% over the last five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 5.4% annually for the foreseeable future. So although its revenues are forecast to shrink, this cloud does not come with a silver lining - Toho Holdings is expected to lag the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at JP¥3,955, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have forecasts for Toho Holdings going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Even so, be aware that Toho Holdings is showing 1 warning sign in our investment analysis , you should know about...

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.