Earnings Miss: HOYA Corporation Missed EPS By 6.9% And Analysts Are Revising Their Forecasts

HOYA Corporation (TSE:7741) shareholders are probably feeling a little disappointed, since its shares fell 9.5% to JP¥19,315 in the week after its latest third-quarter results. It looks like the results were a bit of a negative overall. While revenues of JP¥221b were in line with analyst predictions, statutory earnings were less than expected, missing estimates by 6.9% to hit JP¥145 per share. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.

See our latest analysis for HOYA

Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from HOYA's 16 analysts is for revenues of JP¥933.8b in 2026. This reflects a meaningful 12% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to grow 15% to JP¥690. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of JP¥933.2b and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥693 in 2026. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.

The analysts reconfirmed their price target of JP¥23,147, showing that the business is executing well and in line with expectations. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. Currently, the most bullish analyst values HOYA at JP¥26,000 per share, while the most bearish prices it at JP¥18,700. Analysts definitely have varying views on the business, but the spread of estimates is not wide enough in our view to suggest that extreme outcomes could await HOYA shareholders.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. We can infer from the latest estimates that forecasts expect a continuation of HOYA'shistorical trends, as the 9.1% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2026 is roughly in line with the 9.0% annual growth over the past five years. Compare this with the broader industry, which analyst estimates (in aggregate) suggest will see revenues grow 7.0% annually. So although HOYA is expected to maintain its revenue growth rate, it's definitely expected to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Additionally, our data suggests that revenue is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for HOYA going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here..

We also provide an overview of the HOYA Board and CEO remuneration and length of tenure at the company, and whether insiders have been buying the stock, here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.