Earnings Miss: Sysmex Corporation Missed EPS By 6.2% And Analysts Are Revising Their Forecasts

Last week, you might have seen that Sysmex Corporation (TSE:6869) released its half-year result to the market. The early response was not positive, with shares down 5.2% to JP¥1,638 in the past week. Revenues of JP¥233b were in line with forecasts, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) came in below expectations at JP¥23.20, missing estimates by 6.2%. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

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After the latest results, the 16 analysts covering Sysmex are now predicting revenues of JP¥515.1b in 2026. If met, this would reflect a satisfactory 3.3% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to climb 11% to JP¥82.79. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of JP¥520.9b and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥86.93 in 2026. The analysts seem to have become a little more negative on the business after the latest results, given the small dip in their earnings per share numbers for next year.

View our latest analysis for Sysmex

It might be a surprise to learn that the consensus price target was broadly unchanged at JP¥2,666, with the analysts clearly implying that the forecast decline in earnings is not expected to have much of an impact on valuation. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. There are some variant perceptions on Sysmex, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at JP¥3,600 and the most bearish at JP¥1,920 per share. Note the wide gap in analyst price targets? This implies to us that there is a fairly broad range of possible scenarios for the underlying business.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. We would highlight that Sysmex's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 6.7% annualised growth rate until the end of 2026 being well below the historical 11% p.a. growth over the last five years. Juxtapose this against the other companies in the industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenues (in aggregate) 5.6% annually. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it looks like Sysmex is forecast to grow at about the same rate as the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Sysmex. They also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, with the company predicted to grow at about the same rate as the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have estimates - from multiple Sysmex analysts - going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You should always think about risks though. Case in point, we've spotted 1 warning sign for Sysmex you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.