Results: JMDC Inc. Exceeded Expectations And The Consensus Has Updated Its Estimates

JMDC Inc. (TSE:4483) just released its latest interim results and things are looking bullish. It was overall a positive result, with revenues beating expectations by 2.7% to hit JP¥19b. JMDC also reported a statutory profit of JP¥22.37, which was an impressive 49% above what the analysts had forecast. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on JMDC after the latest results.

View our latest analysis for JMDC

Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from JMDC's 14 analysts is for revenues of JP¥43.1b in 2025. This would reflect a decent 14% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to jump 57% to JP¥99.25. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of JP¥42.8b and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥98.59 in 2025. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.

It will come as no surprise then, to learn that the consensus price target is largely unchanged at JP¥5,545. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. The most optimistic JMDC analyst has a price target of JP¥7,000 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at JP¥3,900. Analysts definitely have varying views on the business, but the spread of estimates is not wide enough in our view to suggest that extreme outcomes could await JMDC shareholders.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. It's clear from the latest estimates that JMDC's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 30% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2025 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 20% p.a. over the past three years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to grow their revenue 13% annually. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that JMDC is expected to grow much faster than its industry.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Additionally, our data suggests that revenue is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for JMDC going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here..

You still need to take note of risks, for example - JMDC has 2 warning signs we think you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.