Alfresa Holdings' (TSE:2784) Solid Earnings May Rest On Weak Foundations

The recent earnings posted by Alfresa Holdings Corporation (TSE:2784) were solid, but the stock didn't move as much as we expected. We believe that shareholders have noticed some concerning factors beyond the statutory profit numbers.

View our latest analysis for Alfresa Holdings

How Do Unusual Items Influence Profit?

Importantly, our data indicates that Alfresa Holdings' profit received a boost of JP¥8.1b in unusual items, over the last year. While it's always nice to have higher profit, a large contribution from unusual items sometimes dampens our enthusiasm. We ran the numbers on most publicly listed companies worldwide, and it's very common for unusual items to be once-off in nature. And that's as you'd expect, given these boosts are described as 'unusual'. If Alfresa Holdings doesn't see that contribution repeat, then all else being equal we'd expect its profit to drop over the current year.

That might leave you wondering what analysts are forecasting in terms of future profitability. Luckily, you can click here to see an interactive graph depicting future profitability, based on their estimates.

Our Take On Alfresa Holdings' Profit Performance

We'd posit that Alfresa Holdings' statutory earnings aren't a clean read on ongoing productivity, due to the large unusual item. Because of this, we think that it may be that Alfresa Holdings' statutory profits are better than its underlying earnings power. But the good news is that its EPS growth over the last three years has been very impressive. The goal of this article has been to assess how well we can rely on the statutory earnings to reflect the company's potential, but there is plenty more to consider. With this in mind, we wouldn't consider investing in a stock unless we had a thorough understanding of the risks. For example, we've discovered 2 warning signs that you should run your eye over to get a better picture of Alfresa Holdings.

Today we've zoomed in on a single data point to better understand the nature of Alfresa Holdings' profit. But there are plenty of other ways to inform your opinion of a company. For example, many people consider a high return on equity as an indication of favorable business economics, while others like to 'follow the money' and search out stocks that insiders are buying. So you may wish to see this free collection of companies boasting high return on equity, or this list of stocks with high insider ownership.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.