Nisshin Seifun Group Inc.

TSE:2002 Stock Report

Market Cap: JP¥546.0b

Nisshin Seifun Group Valuation

Is 2002 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

5/6

Valuation Score 5/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of 2002 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: 2002 (¥1836.5) is trading below our estimate of fair value (¥2657.98)

Significantly Below Fair Value: 2002 is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for 2002?

Key metric: As 2002 is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for 2002. This is calculated by dividing 2002's market cap by their current earnings.
What is 2002's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio16.2x
EarningsJP¥33.66b
Market CapJP¥546.00b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does 2002's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for 2002 vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average19.3x
2212 Yamazaki Baking
15x3.1%JP¥571.4b
2871 Nichirei
20x7.1%JP¥514.8b
2809 Kewpie
22.7x7.1%JP¥496.8b
2282 NH Foods
19.5x12.2%JP¥506.8b
2002 Nisshin Seifun Group
16.2x4.4%JP¥546.0b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: 2002 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (16.2x) compared to the peer average (19.3x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does 2002's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the JP Food Industry?

1 CompanyPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
2215 First Baking
1.7xn/aUS$25.26m
No more companies available in this PE range
2002 16.2xIndustry Avg. 15.0xNo. of Companies16PE0816243240+
1 CompanyEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: 2002 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (16.2x) compared to the JP Food industry average (15.1x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is 2002's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

2002 PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio16.2x
Fair PE Ratio18.9x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: 2002 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (16.2x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (18.9x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst 2002 forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentJP¥1,836.50
JP¥2,425.00
+32.0%
13.8%JP¥2,800.00JP¥2,000.00n/a4
Nov ’25JP¥1,783.00
JP¥2,400.00
+34.6%
12.8%JP¥2,700.00JP¥2,000.00n/a4
Oct ’25JP¥1,812.00
JP¥2,400.00
+32.5%
12.8%JP¥2,700.00JP¥2,000.00n/a4
Sep ’25JP¥1,888.50
JP¥2,400.00
+27.1%
12.8%JP¥2,700.00JP¥2,000.00n/a4
Aug ’25JP¥1,936.00
JP¥2,350.00
+21.4%
12.9%JP¥2,700.00JP¥2,000.00n/a4
Jul ’25JP¥1,856.50
JP¥2,487.50
+34.0%
13.8%JP¥2,900.00JP¥2,000.00n/a4
Jun ’25JP¥1,762.00
JP¥2,570.00
+45.9%
13.6%JP¥2,900.00JP¥2,000.00n/a5
May ’25JP¥2,075.00
JP¥2,630.00
+26.7%
9.9%JP¥2,900.00JP¥2,300.00n/a5
Apr ’25JP¥2,095.50
JP¥2,630.00
+25.5%
9.9%JP¥2,900.00JP¥2,300.00n/a5
Mar ’25JP¥2,087.50
JP¥2,428.33
+16.3%
14.5%JP¥2,900.00JP¥2,020.00n/a6
Feb ’25JP¥2,102.00
JP¥2,408.33
+14.6%
15.3%JP¥2,900.00JP¥1,950.00n/a6
Jan ’25JP¥1,898.50
JP¥2,258.33
+19.0%
12.8%JP¥2,700.00JP¥1,750.00n/a6
Dec ’24JP¥2,043.50
JP¥2,241.67
+9.7%
13.4%JP¥2,700.00JP¥1,750.00n/a6
Nov ’24JP¥2,281.50
JP¥2,125.00
-6.9%
15.2%JP¥2,700.00JP¥1,750.00JP¥1,783.006
Oct ’24JP¥1,905.50
JP¥2,075.00
+8.9%
11.8%JP¥2,400.00JP¥1,750.00JP¥1,812.006
Sep ’24JP¥1,940.50
JP¥2,041.67
+5.2%
13.0%JP¥2,400.00JP¥1,750.00JP¥1,888.506
Aug ’24JP¥1,796.50
JP¥1,995.00
+11.0%
15.4%JP¥2,400.00JP¥1,570.00JP¥1,936.006
Jul ’24JP¥1,779.50
JP¥1,961.67
+10.2%
15.0%JP¥2,400.00JP¥1,570.00JP¥1,856.506
Jun ’24JP¥1,756.00
JP¥1,853.33
+5.5%
15.2%JP¥2,400.00JP¥1,570.00JP¥1,762.006
May ’24JP¥1,673.00
JP¥1,790.00
+7.0%
14.6%JP¥2,200.00JP¥1,390.00JP¥2,075.006
Apr ’24JP¥1,551.00
JP¥1,790.00
+15.4%
14.6%JP¥2,200.00JP¥1,390.00JP¥2,095.506
Mar ’24JP¥1,567.00
JP¥1,841.67
+17.5%
10.9%JP¥2,200.00JP¥1,600.00JP¥2,087.506
Feb ’24JP¥1,608.00
JP¥1,850.00
+15.0%
10.4%JP¥2,200.00JP¥1,650.00JP¥2,102.006
Jan ’24JP¥1,653.00
JP¥1,841.67
+11.4%
9.3%JP¥2,100.00JP¥1,650.00JP¥1,898.506
Dec ’23JP¥1,611.00
JP¥1,841.67
+14.3%
9.3%JP¥2,100.00JP¥1,650.00JP¥2,043.506
Nov ’23JP¥1,589.00
JP¥1,763.33
+11.0%
11.0%JP¥2,100.00JP¥1,530.00JP¥2,281.506

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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