ENEOS Holdings, Inc. Just Missed EPS By 53%: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next

ENEOS Holdings, Inc. (TSE:5020) missed earnings with its latest interim results, disappointing overly-optimistic forecasters. It wasn't a great result overall - while revenue fell marginally short of analyst estimates at JP¥6.3t, statutory earnings missed forecasts by an incredible 53%, coming in at just JP¥23.40 per share. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on ENEOS Holdings after the latest results.

View our latest analysis for ENEOS Holdings

Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from ENEOS Holdings' seven analysts is for revenues of JP¥14t in 2025. This reflects a modest 2.4% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to grow 17% to JP¥77.89. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of JP¥14t and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥80.36 in 2025. So it looks like there's been a small decline in overall sentiment after the recent results - there's been no major change to revenue estimates, but the analysts did make a small dip in their earnings per share forecasts.

The consensus price target held steady at JP¥899, with the analysts seemingly voting that their lower forecast earnings are not expected to lead to a lower stock price in the foreseeable future. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. The most optimistic ENEOS Holdings analyst has a price target of JP¥1,100 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at JP¥670. These price targets show that analysts do have some differing views on the business, but the estimates do not vary enough to suggest to us that some are betting on wild success or utter failure.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. We would highlight that ENEOS Holdings' revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 5.0% annualised growth rate until the end of 2025 being well below the historical 11% p.a. growth over the last five years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to see a revenue decline of 1.6% annually. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it's pretty clear that ENEOS Holdings is still expected to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. On the plus side, they made no changes to their revenue estimates - and they expect it to perform better than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on ENEOS Holdings. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for ENEOS Holdings going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here..

And what about risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 1 warning sign for ENEOS Holdings you should know about.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.