Results: eGuarantee, Inc. Exceeded Expectations And The Consensus Has Updated Its Estimates

It's been a good week for eGuarantee, Inc. (TSE:8771) shareholders, because the company has just released its latest interim results, and the shares gained 4.8% to JP¥1,668. The result was positive overall - although revenues of JP¥5.5b were in line with what the analysts predicted, eGuarantee surprised by delivering a statutory profit of JP¥18.74 per share, modestly greater than expected. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on eGuarantee after the latest results.

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Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from eGuarantee's three analysts is for revenues of JP¥11.3b in 2026. This would reflect an okay 4.3% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are forecast to decrease 2.2% to JP¥76.57 in the same period. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of JP¥11.6b and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥79.65 in 2026. It's pretty clear that pessimism has reared its head after the latest results, leading to a weaker revenue outlook and a small dip in earnings per share estimates.

See our latest analysis for eGuarantee

Despite the cuts to forecast earnings, there was no real change to the JP¥2,467 price target, showing that the analysts don't think the changes have a meaningful impact on its intrinsic value. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. There are some variant perceptions on eGuarantee, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at JP¥3,200 and the most bearish at JP¥2,000 per share. These price targets show that analysts do have some differing views on the business, but the estimates do not vary enough to suggest to us that some are betting on wild success or utter failure.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the eGuarantee's past performance and to peers in the same industry. We can infer from the latest estimates that forecasts expect a continuation of eGuarantee'shistorical trends, as the 8.9% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2026 is roughly in line with the 8.9% annual growth over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to see their revenues grow 1.7% per year. So although eGuarantee is expected to maintain its revenue growth rate, it's definitely expected to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. They also downgraded eGuarantee's revenue estimates, but industry data suggests that it is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at JP¥2,467, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for eGuarantee going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here..

We also provide an overview of the eGuarantee Board and CEO remuneration and length of tenure at the company, and whether insiders have been buying the stock, here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.