Should Nomura Holdings' (TSE:8604) Dividend Increase Spark a Closer Look at Its Earnings Quality?

• Nomura Holdings announced a dividend increase to ¥27 per share for shareholders of record as of September 30, with payment set for December 1, 2025, up from the previous year’s ¥23 per share dividend.
• This heightened payout reflects the firm's willingness to share a larger portion of profits with investors, potentially highlighting confidence in its current financial position or future prospects.
• We’ll explore how this dividend boost may influence views on Nomura’s earnings quality and long-term income potential.

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Nomura Holdings Investment Narrative Recap

To be a shareholder in Nomura Holdings, you need to believe in the sustainable growth of fee-based wealth and asset management, driven by broader Asia-Pacific wealth trends and ongoing digital improvements. The recent dividend increase to ¥27 may reinforce short-term confidence in earnings stability, but it does not fundamentally alter the biggest current catalyst, recurring asset inflows, or address the ongoing risk of fee compression from fintech competition, so the near-term impact is limited.

Among recent announcements, the company's consistent execution of its share buyback program stands out. Completing significant buybacks worth nearly ¥60,000 million in July 2025 is directly aligned with efforts to return value to shareholders, which supports sentiment around the new dividend but also ties back to the core debate: can Nomura deliver stable, growing returns while adapting to margin pressures and evolving industry trends? Yet, while the firm appears focused on shareholder returns, it's important to remember...

Read the full narrative on Nomura Holdings (it's free!)

Nomura Holdings is projected to deliver ¥1,964.2 billion in revenue and ¥334.2 billion in earnings by 2028. This outlook is based on a 0.0% annual revenue growth rate and a decrease in earnings of ¥42.2 billion from the current ¥376.4 billion.

Uncover how Nomura Holdings' forecasts yield a ¥1083 fair value, in line with its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

Simply Wall St Community users estimated Nomura’s fair value between ¥995 and ¥1,525.70 across three perspectives, revealing a wide range of expectations. At the same time, many are weighing the longer-term risk that digital disruption could squeeze margins, highlighting the importance of considering varied angles before making any investment decision.

Explore 3 other fair value estimates on Nomura Holdings - why the stock might be worth 8% less than the current price!

Build Your Own Nomura Holdings Narrative

Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

• A great starting point for your Nomura Holdings research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free Nomura Holdings research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate Nomura Holdings' overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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