Nomura (TSE:8604): Assessing Valuation Following Dividend Increase to JPY 27 Per Share

Nomura Holdings (TSE:8604) is raising its dividend to JPY 27 per share, up from last year’s JPY 23, for shareholders of record at the end of September 2025. This move often signals management’s optimism about future performance.

See our latest analysis for Nomura Holdings.

Nomura Holdings’ bigger story has been impressive for patient investors, with a 28.8% total shareholder return over the past year and a remarkable 165% gain over five years. The latest dividend hike comes as the shares trade near ¥1,100, and sentiment seems robust, reflecting both renewed growth potential and shifting outlooks on risk. Momentum has built steadily as total returns outpace underlying share price moves. This suggests investors continue to reward Nomura’s evolving strategy.

If Nomura’s positive momentum has you thinking about what else might be in play, now is the perfect moment to broaden your search and discover fast growing stocks with high insider ownership

With shares already up strongly and a fresh dividend increase on the table, the real question is whether Nomura is still a bargain or if the current price already reflects all its future growth potential.

Most Popular Narrative: 5.1% Undervalued

With the narrative fair value set at ¥1,160 and Nomura’s last close at ¥1,101, the valuation case is tilted slightly in favor of upside. However, the gap is slim enough that every future catalyst could matter.

Digital disruption, regulatory complexity, and unsustainable deal-driven gains could pressure Nomura's margins. Underperforming overseas divisions also threaten long-term group returns.

Read the complete narrative.

Want to unravel why analysts are still optimistic? The real story behind this fair value is anchored in a rare blend of rising revenues and future profit expectations. Curious what could shift sentiment from here? Dive in to discover how the underlying numbers might surprise you.

Result: Fair Value of ¥1,160 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, ongoing digital disruption and underperformance in certain overseas divisions could challenge Nomura’s outlook. These factors could become catalysts for a shift in sentiment.

Find out about the key risks to this Nomura Holdings narrative.

Build Your Own Nomura Holdings Narrative

If you have your own perspective or want to dig into the numbers firsthand, it’s quick and easy to craft your unique view in just minutes, so why not Do it your way

A great starting point for your Nomura Holdings research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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