Results: Saizeriya Co.,Ltd. Exceeded Expectations And The Consensus Has Updated Its Estimates

A week ago, Saizeriya Co.,Ltd. (TSE:7581) came out with a strong set of third-quarter numbers that could potentially lead to a re-rate of the stock. The company beat forecasts, with revenue of JP¥59b, some 5.7% above estimates, and statutory earnings per share (EPS) coming in at JP¥53.52, 31% ahead of expectations. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

View our latest analysis for SaizeriyaLtd

Following the latest results, SaizeriyaLtd's seven analysts are now forecasting revenues of JP¥235.2b in 2025. This would be a notable 9.7% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to surge 51% to JP¥236. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of JP¥233.2b and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥229 in 2025. The analysts seems to have become more bullish on the business, judging by their new earnings per share estimates.

There's been no major changes to the consensus price target of JP¥7,014, suggesting that the improved earnings per share outlook is not enough to have a long-term positive impact on the stock's valuation. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. The most optimistic SaizeriyaLtd analyst has a price target of JP¥8,100 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at JP¥6,400. With such a narrow range of valuations, the analysts apparently share similar views on what they think the business is worth.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. We can infer from the latest estimates that forecasts expect a continuation of SaizeriyaLtd'shistorical trends, as the 7.7% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2025 is roughly in line with the 7.1% annual growth over the past five years. Juxtapose this against our data, which suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the industry are forecast to see their revenues grow 6.7% per year. It's clear that while SaizeriyaLtd's revenue growth is expected to continue on its current trajectory, it's only expected to grow in line with the industry itself.

The Bottom Line

The biggest takeaway for us is the consensus earnings per share upgrade, which suggests a clear improvement in sentiment around SaizeriyaLtd's earnings potential next year. They also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, with the company predicted to grow at about the same rate as the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at JP¥7,014, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have estimates - from multiple SaizeriyaLtd analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

We also provide an overview of the SaizeriyaLtd Board and CEO remuneration and length of tenure at the company, and whether insiders have been buying the stock, here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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