Declining Stock and Solid Fundamentals: Is The Market Wrong About Oriental Land Co., Ltd. (TSE:4661)?

It is hard to get excited after looking at Oriental Land's (TSE:4661) recent performance, when its stock has declined 12% over the past three months. But if you pay close attention, you might gather that its strong financials could mean that the stock could potentially see an increase in value in the long-term, given how markets usually reward companies with good financial health. Specifically, we decided to study Oriental Land's ROE in this article.

Return on Equity or ROE is a test of how effectively a company is growing its value and managing investors’ money. Put another way, it reveals the company's success at turning shareholder investments into profits.

View our latest analysis for Oriental Land

How Is ROE Calculated?

The formula for ROE is:

Return on Equity = Net Profit (from continuing operations) ÷ Shareholders' Equity

So, based on the above formula, the ROE for Oriental Land is:

11% = JP¥111b ÷ JP¥973b (Based on the trailing twelve months to September 2024).

The 'return' is the profit over the last twelve months. Another way to think of that is that for every ¥1 worth of equity, the company was able to earn ¥0.11 in profit.

Why Is ROE Important For Earnings Growth?

Thus far, we have learned that ROE measures how efficiently a company is generating its profits. We now need to evaluate how much profit the company reinvests or "retains" for future growth which then gives us an idea about the growth potential of the company. Assuming everything else remains unchanged, the higher the ROE and profit retention, the higher the growth rate of a company compared to companies that don't necessarily bear these characteristics.

Oriental Land's Earnings Growth And 11% ROE

At first glance, Oriental Land seems to have a decent ROE. And on comparing with the industry, we found that the the average industry ROE is similar at 12%. This probably goes some way in explaining Oriental Land's significant 33% net income growth over the past five years amongst other factors. However, there could also be other drivers behind this growth. For instance, the company has a low payout ratio or is being managed efficiently.

We then performed a comparison between Oriental Land's net income growth with the industry, which revealed that the company's growth is similar to the average industry growth of 31% in the same 5-year period.

Earnings growth is an important metric to consider when valuing a stock. What investors need to determine next is if the expected earnings growth, or the lack of it, is already built into the share price. Doing so will help them establish if the stock's future looks promising or ominous. One good indicator of expected earnings growth is the P/E ratio which determines the price the market is willing to pay for a stock based on its earnings prospects. So, you may want to check if Oriental Land is trading on a high P/E or a low P/E, relative to its industry.

Is Oriental Land Making Efficient Use Of Its Profits?

Oriental Land has a really low three-year median payout ratio of 16%, meaning that it has the remaining 84% left over to reinvest into its business. So it seems like the management is reinvesting profits heavily to grow its business and this reflects in its earnings growth number.

Moreover, Oriental Land is determined to keep sharing its profits with shareholders which we infer from its long history of paying a dividend for at least ten years.

Summary

In total, we are pretty happy with Oriental Land's performance. In particular, it's great to see that the company is investing heavily into its business and along with a high rate of return, that has resulted in a sizeable growth in its earnings. That being so, a study of the latest analyst forecasts show that the company is expected to see a slowdown in its future earnings growth. To know more about the latest analysts predictions for the company, check out this visualization of analyst forecasts for the company.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.