Earnings Miss: Ain Holdings Inc. Missed EPS By 9.9% And Analysts Are Revising Their Forecasts

It's been a pretty great week for Ain Holdings Inc. (TSE:9627) shareholders, with its shares surging 13% to JP¥6,895 in the week since its latest first-quarter results. Ain Holdings beat revenue expectations by 8.2%, at JP¥133b. Statutory earnings per share (EPS) came in at JP¥55.03, some 9.9% short of analyst estimates. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

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Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from Ain Holdings' five analysts is for revenues of JP¥627.0b in 2026. This reflects a huge 29% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to surge 29% to JP¥352. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of JP¥621.8b and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥350 in 2026. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.

See our latest analysis for Ain Holdings

It will come as no surprise then, to learn that the consensus price target is largely unchanged at JP¥6,760. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. The most optimistic Ain Holdings analyst has a price target of JP¥8,900 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at JP¥5,100. There are definitely some different views on the stock, but the range of estimates is not wide enough as to imply that the situation is unforecastable, in our view.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. The analysts are definitely expecting Ain Holdings' growth to accelerate, with the forecast 40% annualised growth to the end of 2026 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 10% per annum over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 3.3% per year. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that Ain Holdings is expected to grow much faster than its industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Additionally, our data suggests that revenue is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have estimates - from multiple Ain Holdings analysts - going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You can also see whether Ain Holdings is carrying too much debt, and whether its balance sheet is healthy, for free on our platform here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.