Stock Analysis

Is There An Opportunity With Yaoko Co.,Ltd.'s (TSE:8279) 22% Undervaluation?

TSE:8279
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Key Insights

  • Using the 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity, YaokoLtd fair value estimate is JP¥11,196
  • Current share price of JP¥8,729 suggests YaokoLtd is potentially 22% undervalued
  • The JP¥8,488 analyst price target for 8279 is 24% less than our estimate of fair value

Today we will run through one way of estimating the intrinsic value of Yaoko Co.,Ltd. (TSE:8279) by projecting its future cash flows and then discounting them to today's value. One way to achieve this is by employing the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. Believe it or not, it's not too difficult to follow, as you'll see from our example!

Companies can be valued in a lot of ways, so we would point out that a DCF is not perfect for every situation. Anyone interested in learning a bit more about intrinsic value should have a read of the Simply Wall St analysis model.

View our latest analysis for YaokoLtd

Crunching The Numbers

We are going to use a two-stage DCF model, which, as the name states, takes into account two stages of growth. The first stage is generally a higher growth period which levels off heading towards the terminal value, captured in the second 'steady growth' period. To begin with, we have to get estimates of the next ten years of cash flows. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.

A DCF is all about the idea that a dollar in the future is less valuable than a dollar today, and so the sum of these future cash flows is then discounted to today's value:

10-year free cash flow (FCF) forecast

2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033
Levered FCF (¥, Millions) JP¥13.7b JP¥11.1b JP¥13.0b JP¥13.9b JP¥17.0b JP¥19.1b JP¥20.5b JP¥21.6b JP¥22.4b JP¥23.0b
Growth Rate Estimate Source Analyst x2 Analyst x2 Analyst x2 Analyst x1 Analyst x1 Analyst x1 Est @ 7.47% Est @ 5.29% Est @ 3.76% Est @ 2.69%
Present Value (¥, Millions) Discounted @ 4.7% JP¥13.1k JP¥10.1k JP¥11.3k JP¥11.6k JP¥13.5k JP¥14.5k JP¥14.9k JP¥14.9k JP¥14.8k JP¥14.5k

("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = JP¥133b

The second stage is also known as Terminal Value, this is the business's cash flow after the first stage. The Gordon Growth formula is used to calculate Terminal Value at a future annual growth rate equal to the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield of 0.2%. We discount the terminal cash flows to today's value at a cost of equity of 4.7%.

Terminal Value (TV)= FCF2033 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = JP¥23b× (1 + 0.2%) ÷ (4.7%– 0.2%) = JP¥511b

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= JP¥511b÷ ( 1 + 4.7%)10= JP¥323b

The total value is the sum of cash flows for the next ten years plus the discounted terminal value, which results in the Total Equity Value, which in this case is JP¥456b. The last step is to then divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Relative to the current share price of JP¥8.7k, the company appears a touch undervalued at a 22% discount to where the stock price trades currently. The assumptions in any calculation have a big impact on the valuation, so it is better to view this as a rough estimate, not precise down to the last cent.

dcf
TSE:8279 Discounted Cash Flow June 4th 2024

The Assumptions

The calculation above is very dependent on two assumptions. The first is the discount rate and the other is the cash flows. Part of investing is coming up with your own evaluation of a company's future performance, so try the calculation yourself and check your own assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at YaokoLtd as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 4.7%, which is based on a levered beta of 0.800. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

SWOT Analysis for YaokoLtd

Strength
  • Earnings growth over the past year exceeded its 5-year average.
  • Debt is not viewed as a risk.
  • Dividends are covered by earnings and cash flows.
Weakness
  • Earnings growth over the past year underperformed the Consumer Retailing industry.
  • Dividend is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the Consumer Retailing market.
  • Shareholders have been diluted in the past year.
Opportunity
  • Annual earnings are forecast to grow faster than the Japanese market.
  • Good value based on P/E ratio and estimated fair value.
Threat
  • Revenue is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.

Next Steps:

Whilst important, the DCF calculation ideally won't be the sole piece of analysis you scrutinize for a company. DCF models are not the be-all and end-all of investment valuation. Instead the best use for a DCF model is to test certain assumptions and theories to see if they would lead to the company being undervalued or overvalued. For example, changes in the company's cost of equity or the risk free rate can significantly impact the valuation. Can we work out why the company is trading at a discount to intrinsic value? For YaokoLtd, there are three fundamental factors you should assess:

  1. Risks: To that end, you should be aware of the 1 warning sign we've spotted with YaokoLtd .
  2. Future Earnings: How does 8279's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
  3. Other High Quality Alternatives: Do you like a good all-rounder? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing!

PS. Simply Wall St updates its DCF calculation for every Japanese stock every day, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here.

Valuation is complex, but we're helping make it simple.

Find out whether YaokoLtd is potentially over or undervalued by checking out our comprehensive analysis, which includes fair value estimates, risks and warnings, dividends, insider transactions and financial health.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.