H2O Retailing Corporation

TSE:8242 Stock Report

Market Cap: JP¥200.6b

H2O Retailing Valuation

Is 8242 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

5/6

Valuation Score 5/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of 8242 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: 8242 (¥2054.5) is trading below our estimate of fair value (¥14506.72)

Significantly Below Fair Value: 8242 is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for 8242?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

8242 key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.5x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA7x
PEG Ratio-0.2x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does 8242's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for 8242 vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average14.8x
2659 SAN-ALTD
15.9x4.5%JP¥174.6b
8194 Life
9.2x5.1%JP¥158.6b
9948 ARCS
12.4x4.5%JP¥136.2b
2791 DaikokutenbussanLtd
21.6xn/aJP¥146.8b
8242 H2O Retailing
4.7x-22.6%JP¥210.1b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: 8242 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (4.7x) compared to the peer average (14.8x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does 8242's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the JP Consumer Retailing Industry?

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.n/a12.9%
 n/an/an/a
No. of CompaniesPE048121620

Fetching data

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.n/a12.9%
 n/an/an/a
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: 8242 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (4.7x) compared to the JP Consumer Retailing industry average (12.2x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is 8242's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

8242 PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio4.7x
Fair PE Ratio7.3x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: 8242 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (4.7x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (7.4x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst 8242 forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentJP¥2,054.50
JP¥2,425.00
+18.0%
9.3%JP¥2,650.00JP¥2,200.00n/a2
Oct ’25JP¥2,114.00
JP¥2,425.00
+14.7%
9.3%JP¥2,650.00JP¥2,200.00n/a2
Sep ’25JP¥2,144.00
JP¥2,500.00
+16.6%
12.0%JP¥2,800.00JP¥2,200.00n/a2
Aug ’25JP¥2,410.00
JP¥2,450.00
+1.7%
14.3%JP¥2,800.00JP¥2,100.00n/a2
Jul ’25JP¥2,538.00
JP¥2,450.00
-3.5%
14.3%JP¥2,800.00JP¥2,100.00n/a2
Jun ’25JP¥2,489.00
JP¥1,975.00
-20.7%
6.3%JP¥2,100.00JP¥1,850.00n/a2
May ’25JP¥1,765.00
JP¥1,800.00
+2.0%
2.8%JP¥1,850.00JP¥1,750.00n/a2
Apr ’25JP¥1,900.00
JP¥1,800.00
-5.3%
2.8%JP¥1,850.00JP¥1,750.00n/a2
Mar ’25JP¥1,738.00
JP¥1,800.00
+3.6%
2.8%JP¥1,850.00JP¥1,750.00n/a2
Feb ’25JP¥1,599.00
JP¥1,650.00
+3.2%
6.1%JP¥1,750.00JP¥1,550.00n/a2
Jan ’25JP¥1,527.00
JP¥1,650.00
+8.1%
6.1%JP¥1,750.00JP¥1,550.00n/a2
Dec ’24JP¥1,654.00
JP¥1,650.00
-0.2%
6.1%JP¥1,750.00JP¥1,550.00n/a2
Nov ’24JP¥1,613.00
JP¥1,625.00
+0.7%
7.7%JP¥1,750.00JP¥1,500.00JP¥2,029.502
Oct ’24JP¥1,814.00
JP¥1,625.00
-10.4%
7.7%JP¥1,750.00JP¥1,500.00JP¥2,114.002
Sep ’24JP¥1,788.00
JP¥1,525.00
-14.7%
1.6%JP¥1,550.00JP¥1,500.00JP¥2,144.002
Aug ’24JP¥1,558.00
JP¥1,525.00
-2.1%
1.6%JP¥1,550.00JP¥1,500.00JP¥2,410.002
Jul ’24JP¥1,470.00
JP¥1,525.00
+3.7%
1.6%JP¥1,550.00JP¥1,500.00JP¥2,538.002
Jun ’24JP¥1,448.00
JP¥1,475.00
+1.9%
1.7%JP¥1,500.00JP¥1,450.00JP¥2,489.002
May ’24JP¥1,629.00
JP¥1,400.00
-14.1%
3.6%JP¥1,450.00JP¥1,350.00JP¥1,765.002
Apr ’24JP¥1,489.00
JP¥1,400.00
-6.0%
3.6%JP¥1,450.00JP¥1,350.00JP¥1,900.002
Mar ’24JP¥1,387.00
JP¥1,325.00
-4.5%
1.9%JP¥1,350.00JP¥1,300.00JP¥1,738.002
Feb ’24JP¥1,256.00
JP¥1,325.00
+5.5%
1.9%JP¥1,350.00JP¥1,300.00JP¥1,599.002
Jan ’24JP¥1,290.00
JP¥1,325.00
+2.7%
1.9%JP¥1,350.00JP¥1,300.00JP¥1,527.002
Dec ’23JP¥1,189.00
JP¥1,250.00
+5.1%
8.0%JP¥1,350.00JP¥1,150.00JP¥1,654.002
Nov ’23JP¥1,273.00
JP¥1,040.00
-18.3%
10.6%JP¥1,150.00JP¥930.00JP¥1,613.002

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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