Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • May 21
Investor sentiment deteriorates as stock falls 28% After last week's 28% share price decline to JP¥3,060, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 35x. Average forward P/E is 13x in the Consumer Retailing industry in Japan. Total returns to shareholders of 35% over the past year. Simply Wall St's valuation model estimates the intrinsic value at JP¥5,499 per share. Live News • May 20
TRIAL Holdings Shares Drop 31.8% Following Valuation and Debt Concerns as Store Network Changes Continue TRIAL Holdings stock dropped 31.8% after concerns about its valuation, high debt-to-equity ratio and thin operating margins triggered heavy selling.
The selloff came as Japan’s discount retail sector showed broader weakness, putting additional pressure on investor sentiment toward the company.
Management is reshaping the store network by opening larger-format outlets, closing smaller stores and converting a SEIYU site, while same-store sales met and exceeded its internal plan through higher spending per visit.
The sharp share price decline highlights how sensitive the stock is to balance sheet worries and profitability, even as the core retail format and merchandising mix continue to support same-store sales performance in key categories like beer, bakery, ready meals and household goods.
Investors may want to pay close attention to the August 19, 2026 earnings release, as any new detail on debt, margins and the impact of store network changes on overall productivity could be an important input to reassessing the risk profile. Reported Earnings • May 18
Third quarter 2026 earnings: EPS exceeds analyst expectations Third quarter 2026 results: EPS: JP¥15.23 (down from JP¥18.35 in 3Q 2025). Revenue: JP¥333.8b (up 70% from 3Q 2025). Net income: JP¥1.87b (down 17% from 3Q 2025). Profit margin: 0.6% (down from 1.1% in 3Q 2025). The decrease in margin was driven by higher expenses. Revenue was in line with analyst estimates. Earnings per share (EPS) surpassed analyst estimates by 3.5%. Revenue is forecast to grow 8.1% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 5.3% growth forecast for the Consumer Retailing industry in Japan. Announcement • May 09
TRIAL Holdings, Inc. to Report Q3, 2026 Results on May 14, 2026 TRIAL Holdings, Inc. announced that they will report Q3, 2026 results on May 14, 2026 Major Estimate Revision • Mar 14
Consensus EPS estimates increase by 81% The consensus outlook for fiscal year 2026 has been updated. 2026 EPS estimate increased from JP¥15.13 to JP¥27.32. Revenue forecast steady at JP¥1.34t. Net income forecast to shrink 19% next year vs 5.1% growth forecast for Consumer Retailing industry in Japan . Consensus price target up from JP¥3,457 to JP¥4,400. Share price was steady at JP¥4,020 over the past week. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Mar 09
Investor sentiment deteriorates as stock falls 15% After last week's 15% share price decline to JP¥3,820, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 85x. Average forward P/E is 14x in the Consumer Retailing industry in Japan. Total returns to shareholders of 73% over the past year. Simply Wall St's valuation model estimates the intrinsic value at JP¥3,119 per share. Major Estimate Revision • Feb 19
Consensus EPS estimates increase by 92% The consensus outlook for fiscal year 2026 has been updated. 2026 EPS estimate increased from JP¥7.88 to JP¥15.13. Revenue forecast steady at JP¥1.33t. Net income forecast to shrink 39% next year vs 6.0% growth forecast for Consumer Retailing industry in Japan . Consensus price target up from JP¥3,129 to JP¥3,457. Share price rose 40% to JP¥4,480 over the past week. Price Target Changed • Feb 18
Price target increased by 14% to JP¥3,457 Up from JP¥3,043, the current price target is an average from 7 analysts. New target price is 15% below last closing price of JP¥4,045. Stock is up 120% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of JP¥7.11 for next year compared to JP¥96.23 last year. Declared Dividend • Feb 14
Dividend of JP¥16.00 announced Dividend of JP¥16.00 is the same as last year. Ex-date: 29th June 2026 Payment date: 29th September 2026 Dividend yield will be 0.4%, which is lower than the industry average of 1.6%. Payout Ratios Payout ratio: 20%. Cash payout ratio: 5%. Reported Earnings • Feb 14
Second quarter 2026 earnings: EPS and revenues exceed analyst expectations Second quarter 2026 results: EPS: JP¥41.16 (up from JP¥24.35 in 2Q 2025). Revenue: JP¥355.9b (up 70% from 2Q 2025). Net income: JP¥5.04b (up 69% from 2Q 2025). Profit margin: 1.4% (in line with 2Q 2025). Revenue exceeded analyst estimates by 2.0%. Earnings per share (EPS) also surpassed analyst estimates by 112%. Revenue is forecast to grow 7.4% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 5.3% growth forecast for the Consumer Retailing industry in Japan. New Risk • Feb 13
New major risk - Share price stability The company's share price has been highly volatile over the past 3 months. It is more volatile than 90% of Japanese stocks, typically moving 9.7% a week. This is considered a major risk. Share price volatility increases the risk of potential losses in the short-term as the stock tends to have larger drops in price more frequently than other stocks. It may also indicate the stock is highly sensitive to market conditions or economic conditions rather than being sensitive to its own business performance, which may also be inconsistent. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risks Debt is not well covered by operating cash flow (currently running at an operating cash loss). Share price has been highly volatile over the past 3 months (9.7% average weekly change). Minor Risk Profit margins are more than 30% lower than last year (0.8% net profit margin). Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Feb 13
Investor sentiment improves as stock rises 31% After last week's 31% share price gain to JP¥3,890, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 155x. Average forward P/E is 16x in the Consumer Retailing industry in Japan. Total returns to shareholders of 86% over the past year. Simply Wall St's valuation model estimates the intrinsic value at JP¥2,231 per share. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Dec 15
Investor sentiment improves as stock rises 21% After last week's 21% share price gain to JP¥2,876, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 115x. Average forward P/E is 15x in the Consumer Retailing industry in Japan. Total returns to shareholders of 4.1% over the past year. Simply Wall St's valuation model estimates the intrinsic value at JP¥2,005 per share. Announcement • Dec 11
TRIAL Holdings, Inc. to Report Q2, 2026 Results on Feb 12, 2026 TRIAL Holdings, Inc. announced that they will report Q2, 2026 results on Feb 12, 2026 New Risk • Nov 15
New major risk - Financial position The company's debt is not well covered by operating cash flow. Currently running at an operating cash loss. This is considered a major risk. If the company's operating cash flows are too small relative to the size of their debt, it increases their balance sheet risk. The company has less cash from operations to cover its expenses from servicing large debt and it increases the risk of liquidity issues. It also extends the time it would take for the company to pay back the debt in full, meaning it may not be able to easily pay it all off in a distress scenario. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risk Debt is not well covered by operating cash flow (currently running at an operating cash loss). Minor Risks Share price has been volatile over the past 3 months (5.8% average weekly change). Profit margins are more than 30% lower than last year (0.8% net profit margin). Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Nov 14
Investor sentiment improves as stock rises 16% After last week's 16% share price gain to JP¥2,420, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 323x. Average forward P/E is 16x in the Consumer Retailing industry in Japan. Total loss to shareholders of 16% over the past year. Simply Wall St's valuation model estimates the intrinsic value at JP¥4,047 per share. Major Estimate Revision • Sep 03
Consensus EPS estimates fall by 19% The consensus outlook for fiscal year 2026 has been updated. 2026 EPS estimate fell from JP¥117 to JP¥94.74 per share. Revenue forecast steady at JP¥1.35t. Net income forecast to shrink 94% next year vs 6.3% growth forecast for Consumer Retailing industry in Japan . Consensus price target broadly unchanged at JP¥2,920. Share price fell 12% to JP¥2,508 over the past week. Announcement • Sep 03
Trial Holdings Inc. to Report Q1, 2026 Results on Nov 13, 2025 Trial Holdings Inc. announced that they will report Q1, 2026 results on Nov 13, 2025 Reported Earnings • Aug 15
Full year 2025 earnings: EPS misses analyst expectations Full year 2025 results: EPS: JP¥96.23. Revenue: JP¥803.8b (up 12% from FY 2024). Net income: JP¥11.8b (up 2.7% from FY 2024). Profit margin: 1.5% (down from 1.6% in FY 2024). The decrease in margin was driven by higher expenses. Revenue was in line with analyst estimates. Earnings per share (EPS) missed analyst estimates by 1.8%. Revenue is forecast to grow 16% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 3.1% growth forecast for the Consumer Retailing industry in Japan. Announcement • Aug 13
Trial Holdings Inc., Annual General Meeting, Sep 26, 2025 Trial Holdings Inc., Annual General Meeting, Sep 26, 2025. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Jul 03
Investor sentiment improves as stock rises 15% After last week's 15% share price gain to JP¥2,518, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 23x. Average forward P/E is 16x in the Consumer Retailing industry in Japan. Total loss to shareholders of 4.8% over the past year. Announcement • Jul 02
Trial Holdings Inc. (TSE:141A) completed the acquisition of Seiyu GK from KKR Asian Fund IV a fund managed by KKR & Co. Inc. (NYSE:KKR) and Walmart Inc. (NYSE:WMT). Trial Holdings Inc. (TSE:141A) entered into an agreement to acquire Seiyu GK from KKR Asian Fund IV a fund managed by KKR & Co. Inc. (NYSE:KKR) and Walmart Inc. (NYSE:WMT) for approximately ¥380 billion on March 5, 2025. As part of the transaction, Walmart to sell 15% stake and KKR to sell 85% of Seiyu to Trial. Seiyu has unaudited financial figures of net sales of ¥483.5 billion, EBITDA of ¥34 billion, and operating profit of ¥23.5 billion for 2024. The funds for the acquisition of shares will be sourced from its own funds, leveraging our solid financial position. Trial plan to utilize existing cash and newly arranged bank borrowings of ¥370 billion from banks.
The transaction is subject to regulatory and customary closing conditions and Scheduled Date of commencement of share transfer is on July 1, 2025, may change depending on the progress of procedures related to competition laws.
Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley Securities acted as the financial advisor to Seiyu GK. Noritaka Kumamoto, Jonathan Stradling, Makiko Harunari and Atsushi Usui of Simpson Thacher & Bartlett LLP acted as legal advisor to KKR & Co. Inc.
Trial Holdings Inc. (TSE:141A) completed the acquisition of Seiyu GK from KKR Asian Fund IV a fund managed by KKR & Co. Inc. (NYSE:KKR) and Walmart Inc. (NYSE:WMT) on July 1, 2025. As part of acquisition, 99,234,000 shares were acquired. Upcoming Dividend • Jun 20
Upcoming dividend of JP¥16.00 per share Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 27 June 2025. Payment date: 30 September 2025. Trailing yield: 0.8%. Lower than top quartile of Japanese dividend payers (4.0%). Lower than average of industry peers (1.7%). Announcement • Jun 06
Trial Holdings Inc. to Report Fiscal Year 2025 Results on Aug 13, 2025 Trial Holdings Inc. announced that they will report fiscal year 2025 results on Aug 13, 2025 Price Target Changed • May 08
Price target decreased by 7.4% to JP¥2,940 Down from JP¥3,175, the current price target is an average from 5 analysts. New target price is 29% above last closing price of JP¥2,271. Stock is down 20% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of JP¥101 for next year compared to JP¥110 last year. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Apr 14
Investor sentiment improves as stock rises 19% After last week's 19% share price gain to JP¥2,354, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 21x. Average forward P/E is 14x in the Consumer Retailing industry in Japan. Total loss to shareholders of 8.7% over the past year. Announcement • Mar 25
Trial Holdings Inc. Announces President Changes, Effective April 1, 2025 TRIAL Holdings Inc. announced that at the Board of Directors meeting held on March 25, 2025, it has resolved to change the Company's representative directors as described below. Koichi Kameda: Current Position- President; new position: Director and Vice Chairman; Hiro Nagata- New Position: Representative Director and President. Reason for the Changes; The Company aims to ensure the sustainable growth of the group and further enhance corporate value under the new management structure. Date of Change: April 1, 2025; Career Summary of the newly appointed Representative Director: Hiro Nagata; DOB: (April 2, 1982); Career Summary: August 2009 Joined TRIAL Company Inc.; May 2012 Executive Manager of Corporate Planning Department of Trial Retail Engineering Inc.; November 2018 Representative Director and CEO of Retail AI Inc. (current position); September 2020 Director of TRIAL Holdings Inc. (current position); October 2021 Executive Manager of Company Communication of TRIAL Holdings Inc. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Mar 10
Investor sentiment improves as stock rises 22% After last week's 22% share price gain to JP¥2,208, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 19x. Average forward P/E is 14x in the Consumer Retailing industry in Japan. Simply Wall St's valuation model estimates the intrinsic value at JP¥4,203 per share. Announcement • Mar 08
Trial Holdings Inc. to Report Q3, 2025 Results on May 14, 2025 Trial Holdings Inc. announced that they will report Q3, 2025 results on May 14, 2025 Announcement • Mar 07
Trial Holdings Inc. (TSE:141A) entered into an agreement to acquire Seiyu GK from KKR Asian Fund IV a fund managed by KKR & Co. Inc. (NYSE:KKR) and Walmart Inc. (NYSE:WMT) for approximately ¥380 billion. Trial Holdings Inc. (TSE:141A) entered into an agreement to acquire Seiyu GK from KKR Asian Fund IV a fund managed by KKR & Co. Inc. (NYSE:KKR) and Walmart Inc. (NYSE:WMT) for approximately ¥380 billion on March 5, 2025. As part of the transaction, Walmart to sell 15% stake and KKR to sell 85% of Seiyu to Trial. Seiyu has unaudited financial figures of net sales of ¥483.5 billion, EBITDA of ¥34 billion, and operating profit of ¥23.5 billion for 2024. The funds for the acquisition of shares will be sourced from its own funds, leveraging our solid financial position. Trial plan to utilize existing cash and newly arranged bank borrowings of ¥370 billion from banks.
The transaction is subject to regulatory and customary closing conditions and Scheduled Date of commencement of share transfer is on July 1, 2025, may change depending on the progress of procedures related to competition laws.
Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley Securities acted as the financial advisor to Seiyu GK. Declared Dividend • Feb 15
Dividend of JP¥16.00 announced Shareholders will receive a dividend of JP¥16.00. Ex-date: 27th June 2025 Payment date: 30th September 2025 Dividend yield will be 0.8%, which is lower than the industry average of 1.6%. Payout Ratios Payout ratio: 16%. Cash payout ratio: 5%. New Risk • Feb 14
New minor risk - Share price stability The company's share price has been volatile over the past 3 months. It is more volatile than 75% of Japanese stocks, typically moving 6.9% a week. This is considered a minor risk. Share price volatility indicates the stock is highly sensitive to market conditions or economic conditions rather than being sensitive to its own business performance, which may also be inconsistent. It also increases the risk of potential losses in the short term as the stock tends to have larger drops in price more frequently than other stocks. This is currently the only risk that has been identified for the company. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Feb 14
Investor sentiment deteriorates as stock falls 21% After last week's 21% share price decline to JP¥2,110, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 18x. Average forward P/E is 13x in the Consumer Retailing industry in Japan. Reported Earnings • Nov 19
First quarter 2025 earnings released: EPS: JP¥25.91 (vs JP¥35.67 in 1Q 2024) First quarter 2025 results: EPS: JP¥25.91 (down from JP¥35.67 in 1Q 2024). Revenue: JP¥195.8b (up 7.4% from 1Q 2024). Net income: JP¥3.16b (down 9.0% from 1Q 2024). Profit margin: 1.6% (down from 1.9% in 1Q 2024). The decrease in margin was driven by higher expenses. Revenue is forecast to grow 11% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 2.5% growth forecast for the Consumer Retailing industry in Japan. Announcement • Nov 13
Trial Holdings Inc. to Report Q2, 2025 Results on Feb 13, 2025 Trial Holdings Inc. announced that they will report Q2, 2025 results on Feb 13, 2025 New Risk • Nov 07
New minor risk - Share price stability The company's share price has been volatile over the past 3 months. It is more volatile than 75% of Japanese stocks, typically moving 6.0% a week. This is considered a minor risk. Share price volatility indicates the stock is highly sensitive to market conditions or economic conditions rather than being sensitive to its own business performance, which may also be inconsistent. It also increases the risk of potential losses in the short term as the stock tends to have larger drops in price more frequently than other stocks. This is currently the only risk that has been identified for the company. Reported Earnings • Oct 03
Full year 2024 earnings: EPS exceeds analyst expectations Full year 2024 results: EPS: JP¥110 (up from JP¥82.89 in FY 2023). Revenue: JP¥720.4b (up 9.9% from FY 2023). Net income: JP¥11.4b (up 42% from FY 2023). Profit margin: 1.6% (up from 1.2% in FY 2023). The increase in margin was driven by higher revenue. Revenue was in line with analyst estimates. Earnings per share (EPS) surpassed analyst estimates by 9.2%. Revenue is forecast to grow 11% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 3.1% growth forecast for the Consumer Retailing industry in Japan. Announcement • Sep 05
Trial Holdings Inc. to Report Q1, 2025 Results on Nov 13, 2024 Trial Holdings Inc. announced that they will report Q1, 2025 results on Nov 13, 2024 Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Aug 26
Investor sentiment improves as stock rises 23% After last week's 23% share price gain to JP¥3,255, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 30x. Average forward P/E is 15x in the Consumer Retailing industry in Japan. Reported Earnings • Aug 18
Full year 2024 earnings: EPS exceeds analyst expectations Full year 2024 results: EPS: JP¥110 (up from JP¥82.89 in FY 2023). Revenue: JP¥720.4b (up 9.9% from FY 2023). Net income: JP¥11.4b (up 42% from FY 2023). Profit margin: 1.6% (up from 1.2% in FY 2023). The increase in margin was driven by higher revenue. Revenue was in line with analyst estimates. Earnings per share (EPS) surpassed analyst estimates by 9.2%. Revenue is forecast to grow 9.6% p.a. on average during the next 2 years, compared to a 3.3% growth forecast for the Consumer Retailing industry in Japan. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Aug 05
Investor sentiment deteriorates as stock falls 17% After last week's 17% share price decline to JP¥2,328, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 22x. Average forward P/E is 15x in the Consumer Retailing industry in Japan. Reported Earnings • May 18
Third quarter 2024 earnings released: EPS: JP¥25.55 (vs JP¥19.99 in 3Q 2023) Third quarter 2024 results: EPS: JP¥25.55 (up from JP¥19.99 in 3Q 2023). Revenue: JP¥174.5b (up 9.8% from 3Q 2023). Net income: JP¥2.55b (up 31% from 3Q 2023). Profit margin: 1.5% (up from 1.2% in 3Q 2023). The increase in margin was driven by higher revenue. Revenue is forecast to grow 10% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 4.3% growth forecast for the Consumer Retailing industry in Japan. Announcement • May 16
Trial Holdings Inc. to Report Fiscal Year 2024 Results on Aug 13, 2024 Trial Holdings Inc. announced that they will report fiscal year 2024 results on Aug 13, 2024 Announcement • Mar 29
Trial Holdings Inc. to Report Q3, 2024 Results on May 14, 2024 Trial Holdings Inc. announced that they will report Q3, 2024 results on May 14, 2024 Announcement • Mar 22
Trial Holdings Inc. has completed an IPO in the amount of ¥38.85027 billion. Trial Holdings Inc. has completed an IPO in the amount of ¥38.85027 billion.
Security Name: Common Stock
Security Type: Common Stock
Securities Offered: 15,768,600
Price\Range: ¥1700
Discount Per Security: ¥102
Security Name: Common Stock
Security Type: Common Stock
Securities Offered: 5,431,400
Price\Range: ¥1700
Discount Per Security: ¥102
Security Name: Common Stock
Security Type: Common Stock
Securities Offered: 1,653,100
Price\Range: ¥1700
Discount Per Security: ¥102
Transaction Features: Rule 144A; Sponsor Backed Offering Board Change • Mar 21
Less than half of directors are independent Following the recent departure of a director, there are only 2 independent directors on the board. The company's board is composed of: 2 independent directors. 4 non-independent directors. Outside Independent Director Xiangxiu Zhang was the last independent director to join the board, commencing their role in 2022. The company's minority of independent directors is a risk according to the Simply Wall St Risk Model. 
