Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Apr 17
Investor sentiment improves as stock rises 27% After last week's 27% share price gain to JP¥1,434, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 11x. Average forward P/E is 22x in the Luxury industry in Japan. Total returns to shareholders of 157% over the past three years. New Risk • Apr 13
New minor risk - Share price stability The company's share price has been volatile over the past 3 months. It is more volatile than 75% of Japanese stocks, typically moving 6.9% a week. This is considered a minor risk. Share price volatility indicates the stock is highly sensitive to market conditions or economic conditions rather than being sensitive to its own business performance, which may also be inconsistent. It also increases the risk of potential losses in the short term as the stock tends to have larger drops in price more frequently than other stocks. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Minor Risks Paying a dividend despite having no free cash flows. Share price has been volatile over the past 3 months (6.9% average weekly change). Profit margins are more than 30% lower than last year (2.3% net profit margin). Announcement • Apr 11
TSI Holdings Co.,Ltd. (TSE:3608) announces an Equity Buyback for 3,300,000 shares, representing 5.58% for ¥3,000 million. TSI Holdings Co.,Ltd. (TSE:3608) announces a share repurchase program. Under the program, the company will repurchase up to 3,300,000 shares, representing 5.58% of its issued share capital, for ¥3,000 million. The company will repurchase its treasury shares to enable flexible execution of its capital policy and to enhance shareholder returns. The company plans to cancel all treasury shares acquired under the program, excluding 630,000 shares. The program will expire on October 30, 2026. As of April 10, 2026, the company had 59,089,497 shares outstanding (excluding treasury shares) and 4,349,296 treasury shares. Announcement • Apr 03
TSI Holdings Co.,Ltd. to Report Fiscal Year 2026 Results on Apr 10, 2026 TSI Holdings Co.,Ltd. announced that they will report fiscal year 2026 results on Apr 10, 2026 Upcoming Dividend • Feb 19
Upcoming dividend of JP¥40.00 per share Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 26 February 2026. Payment date: 07 May 2026. Payout ratio is a comfortable 6.8% but the company is not cash flow positive. Trailing yield: 3.5%. Within top quartile of Japanese dividend payers (3.4%). Higher than average of industry peers (1.6%). Reported Earnings • Jan 15
Third quarter 2026 earnings released: EPS: JP¥33.81 (vs JP¥13.26 in 3Q 2025) Third quarter 2026 results: EPS: JP¥33.81 (up from JP¥13.26 in 3Q 2025). Revenue: JP¥50.4b (up 24% from 3Q 2025). Net income: JP¥1.97b (up 108% from 3Q 2025). Profit margin: 3.9% (up from 2.3% in 3Q 2025). Revenue is forecast to grow 11% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 8.0% growth forecast for the Luxury industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 92% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 34% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth. Major Estimate Revision • Nov 29
Consensus revenue estimates increase by 11% The consensus outlook for revenues in fiscal year 2026 has improved. 2026 revenue forecast increased from JP¥151.0b to JP¥167.9b. EPS estimate increased from JP¥88.30 to JP¥110 per share. Net income forecast to shrink 61% next year vs 11% growth forecast for Luxury industry in Japan . Consensus price target down from JP¥1,600 to JP¥1,500. Share price was steady at JP¥989 over the past week. Announcement • Oct 29
TSI Holdings Co.,Ltd. to Report Q3, 2026 Results on Jan 14, 2026 TSI Holdings Co.,Ltd. announced that they will report Q3, 2026 results at 9:00 AM, Tokyo Standard Time on Jan 14, 2026 Announcement • Oct 25
TSI Holdings Co.,Ltd. (TSE:3608) agreed to acquire Waterfront Co., Ltd. from JAFCO Group Co., Ltd. (TSE:8595). TSI Holdings Co.,Ltd. (TSE:3608) agreed to acquire Waterfront Co., Ltd. from JAFCO Group Co., Ltd. (TSE:8595) on October 24, 2025. For the period ending December 31, 2024, Waterfront Co., Ltd. reported total revenue of ¥3.01 billion, EBIT of ¥241 million and net income of ¥310 million. As of December 31, 2024, Waterfront Co., Ltd. reported total assets of ¥2.68 billion and total common equity of ¥1.56 billion. The expected completion of the transaction is December 1, 2025. Declared Dividend • Oct 16
Dividend of JP¥40.00 announced Shareholders will receive a dividend of JP¥40.00. Ex-date: 26th February 2026 Payment date: 7th May 2026 Dividend yield will be 4.2%, which is higher than the industry average of 2.0%. Sustainability & Growth Dividend is covered by earnings (8% earnings payout ratio) but the company has no free cash flows available, indicating it may be using cash reserves or debt to pay the dividend. The dividend has increased by an average of 8.6% per year over the past 10 years. However, payments have been volatile during that time. EPS is expected to decline by 41% over the next 3 years. However, it would need to fall by 92% to increase the payout ratio to a potentially unsustainable range. Reported Earnings • Oct 15
Second quarter 2026 earnings released: JP¥10.02 loss per share (vs JP¥18.24 loss in 2Q 2025) Second quarter 2026 results: JP¥10.02 loss per share (improved from JP¥18.24 loss in 2Q 2025). Revenue: JP¥30.6b (down 15% from 2Q 2025). Net loss: JP¥653.0m (loss narrowed 51% from 2Q 2025). Revenue is forecast to grow 3.0% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 7.0% growth forecast for the Luxury industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 94% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 31% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth. Announcement • Jul 29
TSI Holdings Co.,Ltd. to Report Q2, 2026 Results on Oct 14, 2025 TSI Holdings Co.,Ltd. announced that they will report Q2, 2026 results on Oct 14, 2025 Announcement • Jul 15
TSI Holdings Co.,Ltd. (TSE:3608) agreed to acquire 70% stake in Daytona International, Corp. from Unison Capital Partners V (J), L.P. and Unison Capital Partners V, LPS, funds managed by Unison Capital, Inc. TSI Holdings Co.,Ltd. (TSE:3608) agreed to acquire 70% stake in Daytona International, Corp. from Unison Capital Partners V (J), L.P. and Unison Capital Partners V, LPS, funds managed by Unison Capital, Inc. on July 14, 2025. Daytona International, Corp. plans to repurchase 1.27 million of its own shares from K Asset Management Co., Ltd. on September 2, 2025 and if the repurchase is executed on the same date as the share acquisition, TSI Holdings Co.,Ltd. will hold 100% stake in Daytona International, Corp.
For the period ending February 28, 2025, Daytona International, Corp. reported total revenue of ¥39.34 billion, EBIT of ¥539 million and net loss of ¥70 million. As of February 28, 2025, Daytona International, Corp. reported total assets of ¥21.37 billion and total common equity of ¥6.69 billion.
The expected completion of the transaction is September 2, 2025. Reported Earnings • Jul 15
First quarter 2026 earnings released: EPS: JP¥28.44 (vs JP¥7.29 in 1Q 2025) First quarter 2026 results: EPS: JP¥28.44 (up from JP¥7.29 in 1Q 2025). Revenue: JP¥35.6b (down 9.4% from 1Q 2025). Net income: JP¥1.97b (up 260% from 1Q 2025). Profit margin: 5.5% (up from 1.4% in 1Q 2025). Revenue is forecast to grow 1.7% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 6.6% growth forecast for the Luxury industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 94% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 56% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth. Announcement • Jul 14
TSI Holdings Co.,Ltd. (TSE:3608) announces an Equity Buyback for 4,500,000 shares, representing 6.45% for ¥6,000 million. TSI Holdings Co.,Ltd. (TSE:3608) announces a share repurchase program. Under the program, the company will repurchase up to 4,500,000 shares, representing 6.45% of its total shares outstanding (excluding treasury shares), for ¥6,000 million. The acquisition of treasury stock is being carried out as part of the Company's flexible capital policy, in response to changes in the business environment and in support of its shareholder return policy. The shares repurchased will be retired. The repurchase program is valid till December 31, 2025. As of July 14, 2025, the company has 69,756,673 shares outstanding (excluding treasury shares) and has 4,349,120 shares in treasury. New Risk • Jul 09
New minor risk - Share price stability The company's share price has been volatile over the past 3 months. It is more volatile than 75% of Japanese stocks, typically moving 6.0% a week. This is considered a minor risk. Share price volatility indicates the stock is highly sensitive to market conditions or economic conditions rather than being sensitive to its own business performance, which may also be inconsistent. It also increases the risk of potential losses in the short term as the stock tends to have larger drops in price more frequently than other stocks. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risk Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 19% per year for the foreseeable future. Minor Risks Dividend is not well covered by cash flows (104% cash payout ratio). Share price has been volatile over the past 3 months (6.0% average weekly change). Large one-off items impacting financial results. Board Change • Jul 08
Less than half of directors are independent Following the recent departure of a director, there are only 2 independent directors on the board. The company's board is composed of: 2 independent directors. 3 non-independent directors. Independent Outside Director Rumiko Tanabe was the last independent director to join the board, commencing their role in 2025. The company's minority of independent directors is a risk according to the Simply Wall St Risk Model. Announcement • Apr 29
TSI Holdings Co.,Ltd. to Report Q1, 2026 Results on Jul 14, 2025 TSI Holdings Co.,Ltd. announced that they will report Q1, 2026 results on Jul 14, 2025 Reported Earnings • Apr 12
Full year 2025 earnings: EPS misses analyst expectations Full year 2025 results: EPS: JP¥210 (up from JP¥59.96 in FY 2024). Revenue: JP¥156.6b (flat on FY 2024). Net income: JP¥15.2b (up 214% from FY 2024). Profit margin: 9.7% (up from 3.1% in FY 2024). Revenue was in line with analyst estimates. Earnings per share (EPS) missed analyst estimates by 4.6%. Revenue is forecast to grow 3.2% p.a. on average during the next 2 years, compared to a 6.9% growth forecast for the Luxury industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 82% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 56% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth. New Risk • Mar 26
New major risk - Revenue and earnings growth Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 3.2% per year for the foreseeable future. This is considered a major risk. Ultimately, shareholders want to see a good return on their investment and that generally comes from sharing in the company's profits. If profits are expected to decline, then in most cases the share price will decline over time as well. In addition, if the company pays dividends it will also likely need to reduce or cut them, striking a dual blow to total shareholder returns. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risks Share price has been highly volatile over the past 3 months (9.9% average weekly change). Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 3.2% per year for the foreseeable future. Minor Risks Dividend is not well covered by cash flows (469% cash payout ratio). Large one-off items impacting financial results. Announcement • Mar 19
TSI Holdings Co.,Ltd. Announces CEO Changes At Subsidiary Urth Caffe Japan Co., Ltd TSI Holdings Co.,Ltd. announced that it will implement personnel changes at a subsidiary Urth Caffe Japan Co. Ltd. Shigehiko Onodera, Chief Executive Officer, Urth Caffe Japan Co. Ltd. Yuichiro Ikejima: Outgoing Chief Executive Officer, Urth Caffe Japan Co. Ltd. Upcoming Dividend • Feb 20
Upcoming dividend of JP¥65.00 per share Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 27 February 2025. Payment date: 07 May 2025. Payout ratio is a comfortable 65% but the company is paying out more than the cash it is generating. Trailing yield: 5.3%. Within top quartile of Japanese dividend payers (3.8%). Higher than average of industry peers (1.6%). Major Estimate Revision • Feb 04
Consensus EPS estimates increase by 274%, revenue downgraded The consensus outlook for fiscal year 2025 has been updated. 2025 revenue forecast fell from JP¥159.6b to JP¥157.3b. EPS estimate rose from JP¥58.88 to JP¥220. Net income forecast to grow 357% next year vs 22% growth forecast for Luxury industry in Japan. Consensus price target up from JP¥1,200 to JP¥1,500. Share price rose 6.7% to JP¥1,279 over the past week. Announcement • Jan 29
TSI Holdings Co.,Ltd. to Report Fiscal Year 2025 Results on Apr 11, 2025 TSI Holdings Co.,Ltd. announced that they will report fiscal year 2025 results on Apr 11, 2025 New Risk • Jan 15
New minor risk - Earnings quality The company has large one-off items impacting its financial results. One-off items were 64% of the size of the rest of the company's trailing 12-month earnings before tax. This is considered a minor risk. One-off items are incomes or expenses that the company does not expect to repeat in future periods. Examples include profits from the sale of a business or expenses from a restructuring or legal settlements. If the company's reported statutory earnings include a large proportion of one-off items it means they may be an unreliable indicator of its true business performance as the earnings were skewed by these incomes or expenses. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risk Share price has been highly volatile over the past 3 months (9.7% average weekly change). Minor Risk Large one-off items impacting financial results. Reported Earnings • Jan 15
Third quarter 2025 earnings released: EPS: JP¥13.26 (vs JP¥22.61 in 3Q 2024) Third quarter 2025 results: EPS: JP¥13.26 (down from JP¥22.61 in 3Q 2024). Revenue: JP¥40.8b (down 1.8% from 3Q 2024). Net income: JP¥950.0m (down 48% from 3Q 2024). Profit margin: 2.3% (down from 4.4% in 3Q 2024). Revenue is forecast to grow 2.5% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 5.7% growth forecast for the Luxury industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 42% per year but the company’s share price has increased by 58% per year, which means it is well ahead of earnings. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Jan 15
Investor sentiment improves as stock rises 30% After last week's 30% share price gain to JP¥1,306, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 20x. Average forward P/E is 15x in the Luxury industry in Japan. Total returns to shareholders of 318% over the past three years. Simply Wall St's valuation model estimates the intrinsic value at JP¥2,569 per share. Announcement • Jan 15
TSI Holdings Co.,Ltd. Provides Consolidated Earnings Guidance for the Full Year Ending February 28, 2025 TSI Holdings Co.,Ltd. provides consolidated earnings guidance for the full year ending February 28, 2025. For the period, the company now expects net sales to be JPY 157,000 million, operating income to be JPY 2,000 million,net income attributable to owners of parent to be JPY 15,000 million and net income per share to be JPY 211.67 as compared to the previous guidance of net sales to be JPY 160,000 million, operating income to be JPY 2,000 million, profit attributable to owners of parent to be JPY 4,000 million and net income per share to be JPY 53.04. Major Estimate Revision • Nov 21
Consensus EPS estimates increase by 35% The consensus outlook for fiscal year 2025 has been updated. 2025 EPS estimate increased from JP¥45.90 to JP¥61.80. Revenue forecast steady at JP¥159.4b. Net income forecast to grow 66% next year vs 22% growth forecast for Luxury industry in Japan. Consensus price target up from JP¥1,080 to JP¥1,200. Share price rose 3.1% to JP¥857 over the past week. New Risk • Nov 07
New minor risk - Share price stability The company's share price has been volatile over the past 3 months. It is more volatile than 75% of Japanese stocks, typically moving 6.5% a week. This is considered a minor risk. Share price volatility indicates the stock is highly sensitive to market conditions or economic conditions rather than being sensitive to its own business performance, which may also be inconsistent. It also increases the risk of potential losses in the short term as the stock tends to have larger drops in price more frequently than other stocks. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Minor Risks Dividend is not well covered by cash flows (142% cash payout ratio). Share price has been volatile over the past 3 months (6.5% average weekly change). Announcement • Oct 29
TSI Holdings Co.,Ltd. to Report Q3, 2025 Results on Jan 14, 2025 TSI Holdings Co.,Ltd. announced that they will report Q3, 2025 results on Jan 14, 2025 Reported Earnings • Oct 15
Second quarter 2025 earnings released: JP¥18.24 loss per share (vs JP¥6.25 loss in 2Q 2024) Second quarter 2025 results: JP¥18.24 loss per share (further deteriorated from JP¥6.25 loss in 2Q 2024). Revenue: JP¥35.9b (up 6.0% from 2Q 2024). Net loss: JP¥1.34b (loss widened 159% from 2Q 2024). Revenue is forecast to grow 1.6% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 5.1% growth forecast for the Luxury industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, the company's share price growth rate has exceeded its earnings growth rate by 113 percentage points per year, which is a significant difference in performance. Declared Dividend • Oct 13
Dividend of JP¥19.00 announced Shareholders will receive a dividend of JP¥19.00. Ex-date: 27th February 2025 Payment date: 7th May 2025 Dividend yield will be 2.0%, which is about the same as the industry average. Sustainability & Growth Dividend is covered by earnings (35% earnings payout ratio) but the company has no free cash flows available, indicating it may be using cash reserves or debt to pay the dividend. The dividend has increased over the past 10 years. However, payments have been volatile during that time. EPS is expected to grow by 115% over the next 3 years, which should provide support to the dividend and adequate earnings cover. Announcement • Sep 26
TSI Holdings Co.,Ltd. Revises Consolidated Earnings Guidance for the Second Quarter of the Fiscal Year Ending February 28, 2025 TSI Holdings Co.,Ltd. revised consolidated earnings guidance for the Second Quarter of the Fiscal Year Ending February 28, 2025. For the period, the company now expects net sales of JPY 75,200 million compared to prior guidance of JPY 74,500 million; operating loss of JPY 170 million compared to prior guidance of JPY 900 million; loss attributable to owners of parent of JPY 900 million and loss per share of JPY 12.14 compared to prior guidance of JPY 900 million and loss per share of JPY 11.93. Reasons for the Revision: Although sales struggled in March due to unfavorable weather conditions, they showed signs of recovery from April onwards with rising temperatures. Additionally, increased demand from inbound tourists contributed to slightly exceeding the original projection. While gross profit fell short of the plan due to JPY depreciation, rising raw material costs, and efforts to promote the clearance of prior years' inventory, operating profit is expected to increase by JPY 730 million compared to the original projection. This increase is due to cost control efforts in advertising, logistics, and headquarters expenses, as part of the Company's structural reform initiatives. In non-operating income and expenses, despite a decrease in dividend income and foreign exchange losses, ordinary profit is expected to increase by JPY 425 million. While JPY 466 million in gains from the sale of cross-shareholding shares was recorded, the reversal of deferred tax assets accumulated in prior periods is expected to result in an increase in income taxes, leading to an interim net loss attributable to owners of the parent of JPY 900 million, in line with the plan. Considering the impact of additional costs related to business withdrawals as part of the business portfolio review, which is being carried out as part of the structural reforms, as well as the streamlining of the headquarters organization, the full-year consolidated earnings forecast remains unchanged. The Company will promptly disclose the impact of the structural reforms on the consolidated financial results as soon as it is confirmed. Announcement • Sep 25
TSI Holdings Co.,Ltd. Announces Changes in Executive Roles and Personnel Transfers Within the Company and Its Subsidiaries TSI Holdings Co. Ltd. announced the following changes in executive roles and personnel transfers within the Company and its subsidiaries. Personnel Transfers within the Company and TSI Inc. (Effective as of September 25, 2024): Mitsuru Naito, currently Executive General Manager Corporate Headquarters of TSI Holdings Co. Ltd. Executive General Manager Corporate Headquarters of TSI Inc. New position was Executive General Manager of Corporate Headquarters Director of Legal & Compliance Dept. of Corporate Headquarters, TSI Holdings Co. Ltd. Executive General Manager of Corporate Headquarters Director of Legal & Compliance Dept. of Corporate Headquarters, TSI Inc. Hirohito Furuuchi: current position: General Manager of Legal & Compliance Dept. TSI Holdings Co. Ltd. General Manager of Legal & Compliance Dept. TSI Inc. New position: Legal & Compliance Dept. TSI Holdings Co. Ltd. Legal & Compliance Dept. TSI Inc. Buy Or Sell Opportunity • Sep 10
Now 21% undervalued after recent price drop Over the last 90 days, the stock has fallen 2.9% to JP¥896. The fair value is estimated to be JP¥1,140, however this is not to be taken as a buy recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has grown by 3.6% over the last 3 years. Earnings per share has declined by 76%. Revenue is forecast to grow by 4.4% in 2 years. Earnings are forecast to grow by 33% in the next 2 years. Major Estimate Revision • Aug 15
Consensus EPS estimates fall by 15% The consensus outlook for fiscal year 2025 has been updated. 2025 EPS estimate fell from JP¥31.20 to JP¥26.60 per share. Revenue forecast steady at JP¥158.3b. Net income forecast to shrink 29% next year vs 15% growth forecast for Luxury industry in Japan . Consensus price target of JP¥1,080 unchanged from last update. Share price rose 7.9% to JP¥863 over the past week. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Aug 05
Investor sentiment deteriorates as stock falls 16% After last week's 16% share price decline to JP¥755, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 22x. Average forward P/E is 16x in the Luxury industry in Japan. Total returns to shareholders of 138% over the past three years. Simply Wall St's valuation model estimates the intrinsic value at JP¥1,134 per share. Announcement • Jul 31
TSI Holdings Co.,Ltd. to Report Q2, 2025 Results on Oct 11, 2024 TSI Holdings Co.,Ltd. announced that they will report Q2, 2025 results on Oct 11, 2024 Reported Earnings • Jul 15
First quarter 2025 earnings released: EPS: JP¥7.29 (vs JP¥23.77 in 1Q 2024) First quarter 2025 results: EPS: JP¥7.29 (down from JP¥23.77 in 1Q 2024). Revenue: JP¥39.3b (flat on 1Q 2024). Net income: JP¥546.0m (down 73% from 1Q 2024). Profit margin: 1.4% (down from 5.0% in 1Q 2024). Revenue is forecast to grow 1.9% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 6.0% growth forecast for the Luxury industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, the company's share price growth rate has exceeded its earnings growth rate by 115 percentage points per year, which is a significant difference in performance. Major Estimate Revision • Jun 01
Consensus EPS estimates fall by 13% The consensus outlook for fiscal year 2025 has been updated. 2025 EPS estimate fell from JP¥35.80 to JP¥31.20 per share. Revenue forecast steady at JP¥157.8b. Net income forecast to shrink 53% next year vs 7.9% growth forecast for Luxury industry in Japan . Consensus price target up from JP¥860 to JP¥1,080. Share price was steady at JP¥891 over the past week. Announcement • Apr 27
TSI Holdings Co.,Ltd. to Report Q1, 2025 Results on Jul 12, 2024 TSI Holdings Co.,Ltd. announced that they will report Q1, 2025 results on Jul 12, 2024 New Risk • Apr 15
New minor risk - Share price stability The company's share price has been volatile over the past 3 months. It is more volatile than 75% of Japanese stocks, typically moving 6.1% a week. This is considered a minor risk. Share price volatility indicates the stock is highly sensitive to market conditions or economic conditions rather than being sensitive to its own business performance, which may also be inconsistent. It also increases the risk of potential losses in the short term as the stock tends to have larger drops in price more frequently than other stocks. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risk Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 29% per year for the foreseeable future. Minor Risks Paying a dividend despite having no free cash flows. Share price has been volatile over the past 3 months (6.1% average weekly change). Buy Or Sell Opportunity • Apr 15
Now 23% overvalued after recent price rise Over the last 90 days, the stock has risen 25% to JP¥923. The fair value is estimated to be JP¥752, however this is not to be taken as a sell recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has grown by 4.4% over the last 3 years. Earnings per share has declined by 65%. Revenue is forecast to grow by 4.2% in 2 years. Earnings are forecast to decline by 40% in the next 2 years. Reported Earnings • Apr 14
Full year 2024 earnings: EPS exceeds analyst expectations Full year 2024 results: EPS: JP¥59.96 (up from JP¥35.21 in FY 2023). Revenue: JP¥155.4b (flat on FY 2023). Net income: JP¥4.85b (up 58% from FY 2023). Profit margin: 3.1% (up from 2.0% in FY 2023). Revenue was in line with analyst estimates. Earnings per share (EPS) surpassed analyst estimates by 69%. Revenue is forecast to grow 2.1% p.a. on average during the next 2 years, compared to a 5.8% growth forecast for the Luxury industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, the company's share price growth rate has exceeded its earnings growth rate by 96 percentage points per year, which is a significant difference in performance. Price Target Changed • Mar 09
Price target decreased by 21% to JP¥860 Down from JP¥1,090, the current price target is provided by 1 analyst. New target price is 32% above last closing price of JP¥651. Stock is down 1.4% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of JP¥38.60 for next year compared to JP¥35.21 last year. Major Estimate Revision • Mar 09
Consensus EPS estimates fall by 11% The consensus outlook for earnings per share (EPS) in fiscal year 2024 has deteriorated. 2024 revenue forecast decreased from JP¥159.9b to JP¥157.4b. EPS estimate also fell from JP¥43.30 per share to JP¥38.60 per share. Net income forecast to grow 77% next year vs 11% growth forecast for Luxury industry in Japan. Consensus price target down from JP¥1,090 to JP¥860. Share price fell 2.8% to JP¥651 over the past week. Upcoming Dividend • Feb 21
Upcoming dividend of JP¥15.00 per share Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 28 February 2024. Payment date: 08 May 2024. Payout ratio is a comfortable 48% but the company is not cash flow positive. Trailing yield: 2.1%. Lower than top quartile of Japanese dividend payers (3.3%). Lower than average of industry peers (10%). Announcement • Jan 31
TSI Holdings Co.,Ltd. to Report Fiscal Year 2024 Results on Apr 12, 2024 TSI Holdings Co.,Ltd. announced that they will report fiscal year 2024 results on Apr 12, 2024 Reported Earnings • Jan 14
Third quarter 2024 earnings released Third quarter 2024 results: Net income: (down JP¥2.37b from profit in 3Q 2023). Revenue is forecast to grow 4.3% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 5.8% growth forecast for the Luxury industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 19% per year but the company’s share price has increased by 43% per year, which means it is well ahead of earnings. Announcement • Oct 28
TSI Holdings Co.,Ltd. to Report Q3, 2024 Results on Jan 12, 2024 TSI Holdings Co.,Ltd. announced that they will report Q3, 2024 results on Jan 12, 2024 Reported Earnings • Oct 15
Second quarter 2024 earnings released: JP¥6.25 loss per share (vs JP¥2.13 profit in 2Q 2023) Second quarter 2024 results: JP¥6.25 loss per share (down from JP¥2.13 profit in 2Q 2023). Revenue: JP¥33.9b (flat on 2Q 2023). Net loss: JP¥516.0m (down 377% from profit in 2Q 2023). Revenue is forecast to grow 4.0% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 5.8% growth forecast for the Luxury industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 19% per year but the company’s share price has increased by 39% per year, which means it is tracking significantly ahead of earnings growth. Announcement • Oct 14
TSI Holdings Co.,Ltd. (TSE:3608) announces an Equity Buyback for 7,000,000 shares, representing 8.46% for ¥5,000 million. TSI Holdings Co.,Ltd. (TSE:3608) announces a share repurchase program. Under the program, the company will repurchase up to 7,000,000 shares, representing 8.46% of its total shares outstanding (excluding treasury shares), for a total of ¥5,000 million. The purpose of repurchase program is to implement flexible capital policy in response to changes in the business environment and acquiring treasury stock as part of shareholder return measures. The repurchase program is valid till March 29, 2024. As of October 13, 2023, the company has 82,726,355 shares outstanding (excluding treasury shares) and has 7,417,738 shares in treasury. Announcement • Jul 28
TSI Holdings Co.,Ltd. to Report Q2, 2024 Results on Oct 13, 2023 TSI Holdings Co.,Ltd. announced that they will report Q2, 2024 results on Oct 13, 2023 New Risk • Jul 14
New minor risk - Share price stability The company's share price has been volatile over the past 3 months. It is more volatile than 75% of Japanese stocks, typically moving 6.9% a week. This is considered a minor risk. Share price volatility indicates the stock is highly sensitive to market conditions or economic conditions rather than being sensitive to its own business performance, which may also be inconsistent. It also increases the risk of potential losses in the short term as the stock tends to have larger drops in price more frequently than other stocks. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Minor Risks Paying a dividend despite having no free cash flows. Share price has been volatile over the past 3 months (6.9% average weekly change). Large one-off items impacting financial results. Reported Earnings • Jul 13
First quarter 2024 earnings released: EPS: JP¥23.77 (vs JP¥23.03 in 1Q 2023) First quarter 2024 results: EPS: JP¥23.77. Revenue: JP¥39.4b (up 3.3% from 1Q 2023). Net income: JP¥1.99b (down 3.6% from 1Q 2023). Profit margin: 5.0% (down from 5.4% in 1Q 2023). Revenue is forecast to grow 3.7% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 5.7% growth forecast for the Luxury industry in Japan. Board Change • Jun 11
Less than half of directors are independent There are 8 new directors who have joined the board in the last 3 years. Of these new board members, 1 was an independent director. The company's board is composed of: 8 new directors. 3 experienced directors. No highly experienced directors. 3 independent directors (4 non-independent directors). Independent Outside Director Yutaka Nishimura is the most experienced director on the board, commencing their role in 2019. Independent Outside Director Naoko Ichikawa was the last independent director to join the board, commencing their role in 2021. The following issues are considered to be risks according to the Simply Wall St Risk Model: Minority of independent directors. Lack of board continuity. Lack of experienced directors. Reported Earnings • May 30
Full year 2023 earnings: EPS and revenues exceed analyst expectations Full year 2023 results: EPS: JP¥35.21 (up from JP¥11.32 in FY 2022). Revenue: JP¥154.5b (up 10.0% from FY 2022). Net income: JP¥3.06b (up 200% from FY 2022). Profit margin: 2.0% (up from 0.7% in FY 2022). Revenue exceeded analyst estimates by 1.5%. Earnings per share (EPS) also surpassed analyst estimates by 25%. Revenue is forecast to grow 3.4% p.a. on average during the next 2 years, compared to a 6.3% growth forecast for the Luxury industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 42% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 12% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth. Reported Earnings • Apr 15
Full year 2023 earnings: EPS and revenues exceed analyst expectations Full year 2023 results: EPS: JP¥35.21 (up from JP¥11.32 in FY 2022). Revenue: JP¥154.5b (up 10.0% from FY 2022). Net income: JP¥3.06b (up 200% from FY 2022). Profit margin: 2.0% (up from 0.7% in FY 2022). Revenue exceeded analyst estimates by 1.5%. Earnings per share (EPS) also surpassed analyst estimates by 25%. Revenue is forecast to grow 3.4% p.a. on average during the next 2 years, compared to a 7.0% growth forecast for the Luxury industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 42% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 19% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth. Upcoming Dividend • Feb 20
Upcoming dividend of JP¥7.00 per share at 1.2% yield Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 27 February 2023. Payment date: 09 May 2023. Trailing yield: 1.2%. Lower than top quartile of Japanese dividend payers (3.6%). Lower than average of industry peers (1.9%). Announcement • Jan 31
TSI Holdings Co.,Ltd. to Report Fiscal Year 2023 Results on Apr 13, 2023 TSI Holdings Co.,Ltd. announced that they will report fiscal year 2023 results on Apr 13, 2023 Reported Earnings • Jan 14
Third quarter 2023 earnings released: EPS: JP¥27.56 (vs JP¥39.58 in 3Q 2022) Third quarter 2023 results: EPS: JP¥27.56 (down from JP¥39.58 in 3Q 2022). Revenue: JP¥43.3b (up 11% from 3Q 2022). Net income: JP¥2.37b (down 34% from 3Q 2022). Profit margin: 5.5% (down from 9.1% in 3Q 2022). Revenue is forecast to grow 7.4% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 6.3% growth forecast for the Luxury industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 42% per year but the company’s share price has fallen by 10% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings. Board Change • Nov 16
Less than half of directors are independent There are 7 new directors who have joined the board in the last 3 years. Of these new board members, 2 were independent directors. The company's board is composed of: 7 new directors. 2 experienced directors. 2 highly experienced directors. 3 independent directors (4 non-independent directors). Executive Chairman of the Board Takahiko Miyake is the most experienced director on the board, commencing their role in 2011. Independent Outside Director Naoko Ichikawa was the last independent director to join the board, commencing their role in 2021. The following issues are considered to be risks according to the Simply Wall St Risk Model: Minority of independent directors. Lack of board continuity. Lack of experienced directors. Announcement • Nov 02
TSI Holdings Co.,Ltd. to Report Q3, 2023 Results on Jan 13, 2023 TSI Holdings Co.,Ltd. announced that they will report Q3, 2023 results on Jan 13, 2023