Raksul (TSE:4384) - Share price, News & Analysis

Q: What is the Fair Price of 4384 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

4384 (¥2356) is trading above our estimate of [[fair value]] (¥458.25)

4384 fundamental analysis
Snowflake Score
Valuation	1/6
Future Growth	0/6
Past Performance	1/6
Financial Health	3/6
Dividends	0/6

4384 Stock Overview

Raksul Inc. provides printing services in Japan.

Risk Analysis

Highly volatile share price over the past 3 months

Large one-off items impacting financial results

Profit margins (0.5%) are lower than last year (1.8%)

Raksul Competitors

Takara

TSE:7921

JP¥25.7b

PRONEXUS

TSE:7893

JP¥28.0b

KOSAIDO Holdings

TSE:7868

JP¥28.5b

JAPAN Creative Platform Group

TSE:7814

JP¥17.7b

Price History & Performance

Summary of all time highs, changes and price drops for Raksul
Historical stock prices
Current Share Price	JP¥2,356.00
52 Week High	JP¥7,310.00
52 Week Low	JP¥1,422.00
Beta	0.95
1 Month Change	28.60%
3 Month Change	6.94%
1 Year Change	-54.43%
3 Year Change	-34.37%
5 Year Change	n/a
Change since IPO	17.86%

Shareholder Returns

	4384	JP Commercial Services	JP Market
7D	0.2%	-0.2%	0.06%
1Y	-54.4%	-3.3%	-2.0%

Return vs Industry: 4384 underperformed the JP Commercial Services industry which returned -3.3% over the past year.

Return vs Market: 4384 underperformed the JP Market which returned -2% over the past year.

Price Volatility

Is 4384's price volatile compared to industry and market?
4384 volatility
4384 Average Weekly Movement	10.6%
Commercial Services Industry Average Movement	3.7%
Market Average Movement	3.9%
10% most volatile stocks in JP Market	8.0%
10% least volatile stocks in JP Market	2.1%

Stable Share Price: 4384 is more volatile than 90% of JP stocks over the past 3 months, typically moving +/- 11% a week.

Volatility Over Time: 4384's weekly volatility (11%) has been stable over the past year, but is still higher than 75% of JP stocks.

About the Company

Founded	Employees	CEO	Website
2009	n/a	Yasukane Matsumoto	https://corp.raksul.com

Raksul Inc. provides printing services in Japan. The company provides printing for office/industry supplies, such as labels, clothing, stationary, mobile phone peripherals, bags, and cardboard and packing materials; and flyers, business cards, booklets, envelopes, postcards, etc. It also provides local advertising services through inserted leaflets, posting, direct mails, TV commercials, and Websites. In addition, the company offers an advertising platform.

Raksul Fundamentals Summary

How do Raksul's earnings and revenue compare to its market cap?
4384 fundamental statistics
Market Cap	JP¥68.34b
Earnings (TTM)	JP¥156.80m
Revenue (TTM)	JP¥32.36b

435.8x

P/E Ratio

2.1x

P/S Ratio

Is 4384 overvalued?

See Fair Value and valuation analysis

Earnings & Revenue

Key profitability statistics from the latest earnings report
4384 income statement (TTM)
Revenue	JP¥32.36b
Cost of Revenue	JP¥23.54b
Gross Profit	JP¥8.82b
Other Expenses	JP¥8.66b
Earnings	JP¥156.80m

Last Reported Earnings

Apr 30, 2022

Next Earnings Date

Sep 14, 2022

Earnings per share (EPS)	5.41
Gross Margin	27.26%
Net Profit Margin	0.48%
Debt/Equity Ratio	130.0%

How did 4384 perform over the long term?

See historical performance and comparison

We’ve recently updated our valuation analysis.

Valuation

Is 4384 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

1/6

Valuation Score 1/6

Price-To-Sales vs Peers
Price-To-Sales vs Industry
Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio
Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Analyst Forecast

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for 4384?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

The above table shows the n/a ratio for 4384. This is calculated by dividing 4384's market cap by their current preferred multiple.
What is 4384's n/a Ratio?
n/a Ratio	0x
n/a	n/a
Market Cap	JP¥68.34b

4384 key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	2.1x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	1016.5x
PEG Ratio	n/a

Price to Sales Ratio vs Peers

How does 4384's PS Ratio compare to its peers?

4384 PS Ratio vs Peers

The above table shows the PS ratio for 4384 vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	PS	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	0.8x
7921 Takara	1x	n/a	JP¥25.7b
7893 PRONEXUS	1x	n/a	JP¥28.0b
7868 KOSAIDO Holdings	0.8x	n/a	JP¥28.5b
7814 JAPAN Creative Platform Group	0.3x	n/a	JP¥17.7b
4384 Raksul	2.1x	n/a	JP¥68.3b

Price-To-Sales vs Peers: 4384 is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (2.1x) compared to the peer average (0.8x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does 4384's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the JP Commercial Services Industry?

Price-To-Sales vs Industry: 4384 is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (2.1x) compared to the JP Commercial Services industry average (0.5x)

Price to Sales Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is 4384's PS Ratio compared to its Fair PS Ratio? This is the expected PS Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

4384 PS Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PS Ratio	2.1x
Fair PS Ratio	n/a

Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio: Insufficient data to calculate 4384's Price-To-Sales Fair Ratio for valuation analysis.

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of 4384 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: 4384 (¥2356) is trading above our estimate of fair value (¥458.25)

Significantly Below Fair Value: 4384 is trading above our estimate of fair value.

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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Future Growth

How is Raksul forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 0 analysts?

Future Growth Score

0/6

Future Growth Score 0/6

Earnings vs Savings Rate
Earnings vs Market
High Growth Earnings
Revenue vs Market
High Growth Revenue
Future ROE

4.8%

Forecasted Commercial Services industry annual growth in earnings

In this section we usually present revenue and earnings growth projections based on the consensus estimates of professional analysts to help investors understand the company’s ability to generate profit. But as Raksul has not provided enough past data and has no analyst forecast, its future earnings cannot be reliably calculated by extrapolating past data or using analyst predictions.

This is quite a rare situation as 97% of companies covered by SimplyWall St do have past financial data.

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Take a look at our analysis of 4384’s management and see if the CEO’s compensation is within a reasonable range, who is on the board and if insiders have been trading lately.

Past Performance

How has Raksul performed over the past 5 years?

Past Performance Score

1/6

Past Performance Score 1/6

Quality Earnings
Growing Profit Margin
Earnings Trend
Accelerating Growth
Earnings vs Industry
High ROE

25.7%

Historical annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue History

Quality Earnings: 4384 has a large one-off gain of ¥667.0M impacting its April 30 2022 financial results.

Growing Profit Margin: 4384's current net profit margins (0.5%) are lower than last year (1.8%).

Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: 4384 has become profitable over the past 5 years, growing earnings by 25.7% per year.

Accelerating Growth: 4384's has had negative earnings growth over the past year, so it can't be compared to its 5-year average.

Earnings vs Industry: 4384 had negative earnings growth (-67.2%) over the past year, making it difficult to compare to the Commercial Services industry average (21.2%).

Return on Equity

High ROE: 4384's Return on Equity (1.9%) is considered low.

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Financial Health

How is Raksul's financial position?

Financial Health Score

3/6

Financial Health Score 3/6

Short Term Liabilities
Long Term Liabilities
Debt Level
Reducing Debt
Debt Coverage
Interest Coverage

Financial Position Analysis

Short Term Liabilities: 4384's short term assets (¥15.4B) exceed its short term liabilities (¥6.9B).

Long Term Liabilities: 4384's short term assets (¥15.4B) exceed its long term liabilities (¥8.5B).

Debt to Equity History and Analysis

Debt Level: 4384's net debt to equity ratio (11.7%) is considered satisfactory.

Reducing Debt: Insufficient data to determine if 4384's debt to equity ratio has reduced over the past 5 years.

Debt Coverage: 4384's debt is not well covered by operating cash flow (7.4%).

Interest Coverage: Insufficient data to determine if 4384's interest payments on its debt are well covered by EBIT.

Balance Sheet

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Dividend

What is Raksul current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

Dividend Score

0/6

Dividend Score 0/6

Notable Dividend
High Dividend
Stable Dividend
Growing Dividend
Earnings Coverage
Cash Flow Coverage

Dividend Yield vs Market

Notable Dividend: Unable to evaluate 4384's dividend yield against the bottom 25% of dividend payers, as the company has not reported any recent payouts.

High Dividend: Unable to evaluate 4384's dividend yield against the top 25% of dividend payers, as the company has not reported any recent payouts.

Stability and Growth of Payments

Stable Dividend: Insufficient data to determine if 4384's dividends per share have been stable in the past.

Growing Dividend: Insufficient data to determine if 4384's dividend payments have been increasing.

Earnings Payout to Shareholders

Earnings Coverage: Insufficient data to calculate payout ratio to determine if its dividend payments are covered by earnings.

Cash Payout to Shareholders

Cash Flow Coverage: Unable to calculate sustainability of dividends as 4384 has not reported any payouts.

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Management

How experienced are the management team and are they aligned to shareholders interests?

4.0yrs

Average management tenure

CEO

Yasukane Matsumoto

12.92yrs

Tenure

Mr. Yasukane Matsumoto is Founder of Raksul Inc. and has been its Chief Executive Officer since September 2009 and also serves as its President and Representative Director. Mr. Matsumoto had been an Outsid...

Leadership Team

Experienced Management: 4384's management team is considered experienced (4 years average tenure).

Board Members

Experienced Board: 4384's board of directors are not considered experienced ( 2.7 years average tenure), which suggests a new board.

Ownership

Who are the major shareholders and have insiders been buying or selling?

Insider Trading Volume

Insider Buying: Insufficient data to determine if insiders have bought more shares than they have sold in the past 3 months.

Ownership Breakdown

Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have not been meaningfully diluted in the past year.

Data	Last Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis	2022/08/11 00:00
End of Day Share Price	2022/08/10 00:00
Earnings	2022/04/30
Annual Earnings	2021/07/31