Okuma Corporation Just Missed EPS By 22%: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next

As you might know, Okuma Corporation (TSE:6103) recently reported its half-year numbers. Statutory earnings per share fell badly short of expectations, coming in at JP¥51.97, some 22% below analyst forecasts, although revenues were okay, approximately in line with analyst estimates at JP¥105b. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.

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Taking into account the latest results, Okuma's six analysts currently expect revenues in 2026 to be JP¥220.8b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to grow 19% to JP¥208. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of JP¥215.5b and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥215 in 2026. Overall it looks as though the analysts were a bit mixed on the latest results. Although there was a to revenue, the consensus also made a small dip in its earnings per share forecasts.

See our latest analysis for Okuma

There's been no major changes to the price target of JP¥3,857, suggesting that the impact of higher forecast revenue and lower earnings won't result in a meaningful change to the business' valuation. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. The most optimistic Okuma analyst has a price target of JP¥4,200 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at JP¥3,500. Still, with such a tight range of estimates, it suggeststhe analysts have a pretty good idea of what they think the company is worth.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. We would highlight that Okuma's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 3.7% annualised growth rate until the end of 2026 being well below the historical 10% p.a. growth over the last five years. Compare this against other companies (with analyst forecasts) in the industry, which are in aggregate expected to see revenue growth of 4.9% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while revenue growth is expected to slow down, the wider industry is also expected to grow faster than Okuma.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Okuma. They also upgraded their revenue estimates for next year, even though it is expected to grow slower than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Okuma going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here..

It is also worth noting that we have found 1 warning sign for Okuma that you need to take into consideration.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.