Analysts Are Updating Their MonotaRO Co., Ltd. (TSE:3064) Estimates After Its Third-Quarter Results

It's been a good week for MonotaRO Co., Ltd. (TSE:3064) shareholders, because the company has just released its latest quarterly results, and the shares gained 5.7% to JP¥2,153. Results look mixed - while revenue fell marginally short of analyst estimates at JP¥81b, statutory earnings were in line with expectations, at JP¥16.23 per share. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on MonotaRO after the latest results.

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After the latest results, the eleven analysts covering MonotaRO are now predicting revenues of JP¥371.3b in 2026. If met, this would reflect a notable 17% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to expand 17% to JP¥73.10. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of JP¥371.6b and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥73.12 in 2026. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.

Check out our latest analysis for MonotaRO

It will come as no surprise then, to learn that the consensus price target is largely unchanged at JP¥2,497. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. There are some variant perceptions on MonotaRO, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at JP¥3,000 and the most bearish at JP¥1,790 per share. There are definitely some different views on the stock, but the range of estimates is not wide enough as to imply that the situation is unforecastable, in our view.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the MonotaRO's past performance and to peers in the same industry. We can infer from the latest estimates that forecasts expect a continuation of MonotaRO'shistorical trends, as the 13% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2026 is roughly in line with the 14% annual growth over the past five years. Compare this with the broader industry, which analyst estimates (in aggregate) suggest will see revenues grow 4.0% annually. So although MonotaRO is expected to maintain its revenue growth rate, it's definitely expected to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at JP¥2,497, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have forecasts for MonotaRO going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

However, before you get too enthused, we've discovered 1 warning sign for MonotaRO that you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.