Subaru Corporation Beat Analyst Estimates: See What The Consensus Is Forecasting For Next Year

Subaru Corporation (TSE:7270) just released its latest third-quarter results and things are looking bullish. It was overall a positive result, with revenues beating expectations by 2.5% to hit JP¥1.3t. Subaru also reported a statutory profit of JP¥210, which was an impressive 71% above what the analysts had forecast. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

Check out our latest analysis for Subaru

Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from Subaru's 15 analysts is for revenues of JP¥4.87t in 2026. This reflects a credible 2.7% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are expected to plummet 21% to JP¥438 in the same period. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of JP¥4.86t and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥429 in 2026. The analysts seems to have become more bullish on the business, judging by their new earnings per share estimates.

The consensus price target was unchanged at JP¥2,943, implying that the improved earnings outlook is not expected to have a long term impact on value creation for shareholders. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Subaru at JP¥4,400 per share, while the most bearish prices it at JP¥1,900. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Subaru's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2026 expected to display 2.2% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 11% over the past five years. Compare this against other companies (with analyst forecasts) in the industry, which are in aggregate expected to see revenue growth of 3.1% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while revenue growth is expected to slow down, the wider industry is also expected to grow faster than Subaru.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing here is that the analysts upgraded their earnings per share estimates, suggesting that there has been a clear increase in optimism towards Subaru following these results. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at JP¥2,943, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Subaru going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here..

Don't forget that there may still be risks. For instance, we've identified 2 warning signs for Subaru (1 is concerning) you should be aware of.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.