ACEA S.p.A. Recorded A 28% Miss On Revenue: Analysts Are Revisiting Their Models

It's been a good week for ACEA S.p.A. (BIT:ACE) shareholders, because the company has just released its latest interim results, and the shares gained 5.1% to €20.34. Revenues were €1.5b, 28% shy of what the analysts were expecting, although statutory earnings of €1.56 per share were roughly in line with what was forecast. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.

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Following last week's earnings report, ACEA's four analysts are forecasting 2025 revenues to be €4.26b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory per share are forecast to be €1.75, approximately in line with the last 12 months. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of €4.51b and earnings per share (EPS) of €1.61 in 2025. If anything, the analysts look to have become slightly more optimistic overall; while they decreased their revenue forecasts, EPS predictions increased and ultimately earnings are more important.

View our latest analysis for ACEA

The consensus has made no major changes to the price target of €22.25, suggesting the forecast improvement in earnings is expected to offset the decline in revenues next year. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. Currently, the most bullish analyst values ACEA at €22.50 per share, while the most bearish prices it at €22.00. The narrow spread of estimates could suggest that the business' future is relatively easy to value, or thatthe analysts have a strong view on its prospects.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. We would highlight that ACEA's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 3.8% annualised growth rate until the end of 2025 being well below the historical 5.9% p.a. growth over the last five years. Juxtapose this against the other companies in the industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenues (in aggregate) 3.5% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while ACEA's revenue growth is expected to slow, it's expected to grow roughly in line with the industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing here is that the analysts upgraded their earnings per share estimates, suggesting that there has been a clear increase in optimism towards ACEA following these results. Sadly, they also downgraded their revenue forecasts, but the business is still expected to grow at roughly the same rate as the industry itself. Even so, earnings per share are more important to the intrinsic value of the business. The consensus price target held steady at €22.25, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have estimates - from multiple ACEA analysts - going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

It is also worth noting that we have found 2 warning signs for ACEA that you need to take into consideration.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.