David Iben put it well when he said, 'Volatility is not a risk we care about. What we care about is avoiding the permanent loss of capital.' When we think about how risky a company is, we always like to look at its use of debt, since debt overload can lead to ruin. As with many other companies A2A S.p.A. (BIT:A2A) makes use of debt. But the real question is whether this debt is making the company risky.
Why Does Debt Bring Risk?
Debt assists a business until the business has trouble paying it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. If things get really bad, the lenders can take control of the business. However, a more frequent (but still costly) occurrence is where a company must issue shares at bargain-basement prices, permanently diluting shareholders, just to shore up its balance sheet. Of course, the upside of debt is that it often represents cheap capital, especially when it replaces dilution in a company with the ability to reinvest at high rates of return. The first thing to do when considering how much debt a business uses is to look at its cash and debt together.
See our latest analysis for A2A
What Is A2A's Debt?
As you can see below, at the end of June 2023, A2A had €6.67b of debt, up from €6.03b a year ago. Click the image for more detail. However, because it has a cash reserve of €2.44b, its net debt is less, at about €4.23b.
How Healthy Is A2A's Balance Sheet?
According to the last reported balance sheet, A2A had liabilities of €6.73b due within 12 months, and liabilities of €6.89b due beyond 12 months. Offsetting these obligations, it had cash of €2.44b as well as receivables valued at €3.21b due within 12 months. So its liabilities outweigh the sum of its cash and (near-term) receivables by €7.97b.
The deficiency here weighs heavily on the €5.15b company itself, as if a child were struggling under the weight of an enormous back-pack full of books, his sports gear, and a trumpet. So we definitely think shareholders need to watch this one closely. After all, A2A would likely require a major re-capitalisation if it had to pay its creditors today.
We measure a company's debt load relative to its earnings power by looking at its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and by calculating how easily its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) cover its interest expense (interest cover). Thus we consider debt relative to earnings both with and without depreciation and amortization expenses.
A2A's debt is 2.8 times its EBITDA, and its EBIT cover its interest expense 5.9 times over. This suggests that while the debt levels are significant, we'd stop short of calling them problematic. Importantly, A2A grew its EBIT by 31% over the last twelve months, and that growth will make it easier to handle its debt. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But ultimately the future profitability of the business will decide if A2A can strengthen its balance sheet over time. So if you want to see what the professionals think, you might find this free report on analyst profit forecasts to be interesting.
But our final consideration is also important, because a company cannot pay debt with paper profits; it needs cold hard cash. So the logical step is to look at the proportion of that EBIT that is matched by actual free cash flow. In the last three years, A2A's free cash flow amounted to 43% of its EBIT, less than we'd expect. That weak cash conversion makes it more difficult to handle indebtedness.
Our View
A2A's level of total liabilities and net debt to EBITDA definitely weigh on it, in our esteem. But the good news is it seems to be able to grow its EBIT with ease. We should also note that Integrated Utilities industry companies like A2A commonly do use debt without problems. Taking the abovementioned factors together we do think A2A's debt poses some risks to the business. While that debt can boost returns, we think the company has enough leverage now. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. For example - A2A has 2 warning signs we think you should be aware of.
When all is said and done, sometimes its easier to focus on companies that don't even need debt. Readers can access a list of growth stocks with zero net debt 100% free, right now.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
About BIT:A2A
A2A
Engages in the production, sale, and distribution of gas and electricity, and district heating in Italy and internationally.
Undervalued with solid track record and pays a dividend.