Stock Analysis

Investors in Telecom Italia (BIT:TIT) from five years ago are still down 50%, even after 6.0% gain this past week

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BIT:TIT

Telecom Italia S.p.A. (BIT:TIT) shareholders should be happy to see the share price up 10% in the last quarter. But that is little comfort to those holding over the last half decade, sitting on a big loss. The share price has failed to impress anyone , down a sizable 53% during that time. So we're hesitant to put much weight behind the short term increase. But it could be that the fall was overdone.

Although the past week has been more reassuring for shareholders, they're still in the red over the last five years, so let's see if the underlying business has been responsible for the decline.

Check out our latest analysis for Telecom Italia

Telecom Italia wasn't profitable in the last twelve months, it is unlikely we'll see a strong correlation between its share price and its earnings per share (EPS). Arguably revenue is our next best option. When a company doesn't make profits, we'd generally hope to see good revenue growth. That's because it's hard to be confident a company will be sustainable if revenue growth is negligible, and it never makes a profit.

In the last five years Telecom Italia saw its revenue shrink by 2.9% per year. While far from catastrophic that is not good. With neither profit nor revenue growth, the loss of 9% per year doesn't really surprise us. We don't think anyone is rushing to buy this stock. Ultimately, it may be worth watching - should revenue pick up, the share price might follow.

The image below shows how earnings and revenue have tracked over time (if you click on the image you can see greater detail).

BIT:TIT Earnings and Revenue Growth September 14th 2024

If you are thinking of buying or selling Telecom Italia stock, you should check out this FREE detailed report on its balance sheet.

What About The Total Shareholder Return (TSR)?

Investors should note that there's a difference between Telecom Italia's total shareholder return (TSR) and its share price change, which we've covered above. Arguably the TSR is a more complete return calculation because it accounts for the value of dividends (as if they were reinvested), along with the hypothetical value of any discounted capital that have been offered to shareholders. Telecom Italia's TSR of was a loss of 50% for the 5 years. That wasn't as bad as its share price return, because it has paid dividends.

A Different Perspective

Investors in Telecom Italia had a tough year, with a total loss of 22%, against a market gain of about 18%. However, keep in mind that even the best stocks will sometimes underperform the market over a twelve month period. Regrettably, last year's performance caps off a bad run, with the shareholders facing a total loss of 9% per year over five years. We realise that Baron Rothschild has said investors should "buy when there is blood on the streets", but we caution that investors should first be sure they are buying a high quality business. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. Even so, be aware that Telecom Italia is showing 1 warning sign in our investment analysis , you should know about...

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Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Italian exchanges.

Valuation is complex, but we're here to simplify it.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.