Will Weakness in Reply S.p.A.'s (BIT:REY) Stock Prove Temporary Given Strong Fundamentals?

It is hard to get excited after looking at Reply's (BIT:REY) recent performance, when its stock has declined 6.6% over the past three months. However, a closer look at its sound financials might cause you to think again. Given that fundamentals usually drive long-term market outcomes, the company is worth looking at. In this article, we decided to focus on Reply's ROE.

Return on equity or ROE is an important factor to be considered by a shareholder because it tells them how effectively their capital is being reinvested. In short, ROE shows the profit each dollar generates with respect to its shareholder investments.

See our latest analysis for Reply

How Do You Calculate Return On Equity?

ROE can be calculated by using the formula:

Return on Equity = Net Profit (from continuing operations) ÷ Shareholders' Equity

So, based on the above formula, the ROE for Reply is:

18% = €210m ÷ €1.2b (Based on the trailing twelve months to June 2024).

The 'return' is the profit over the last twelve months. That means that for every €1 worth of shareholders' equity, the company generated €0.18 in profit.

What Has ROE Got To Do With Earnings Growth?

We have already established that ROE serves as an efficient profit-generating gauge for a company's future earnings. Depending on how much of these profits the company reinvests or "retains", and how effectively it does so, we are then able to assess a company’s earnings growth potential. Assuming all else is equal, companies that have both a higher return on equity and higher profit retention are usually the ones that have a higher growth rate when compared to companies that don't have the same features.

Reply's Earnings Growth And 18% ROE

At first glance, Reply seems to have a decent ROE. And on comparing with the industry, we found that the the average industry ROE is similar at 17%. Consequently, this likely laid the ground for the decent growth of 14% seen over the past five years by Reply.

We then compared Reply's net income growth with the industry and found that the company's growth figure is lower than the average industry growth rate of 22% in the same 5-year period, which is a bit concerning.

Earnings growth is an important metric to consider when valuing a stock. The investor should try to establish if the expected growth or decline in earnings, whichever the case may be, is priced in. By doing so, they will have an idea if the stock is headed into clear blue waters or if swampy waters await. If you're wondering about Reply's's valuation, check out this gauge of its price-to-earnings ratio, as compared to its industry.

Is Reply Efficiently Re-investing Its Profits?

Reply's three-year median payout ratio to shareholders is 19% (implying that it retains 81% of its income), which is on the lower side, so it seems like the management is reinvesting profits heavily to grow its business.

Additionally, Reply has paid dividends over a period of at least ten years which means that the company is pretty serious about sharing its profits with shareholders. Based on the latest analysts' estimates, we found that the company's future payout ratio over the next three years is expected to hold steady at 18%. Therefore, the company's future ROE is also not expected to change by much with analysts predicting an ROE of 17%.

Conclusion

On the whole, we feel that Reply's performance has been quite good. Specifically, we like that the company is reinvesting a huge chunk of its profits at a high rate of return. This of course has caused the company to see a good amount of growth in its earnings. Having said that, the company's earnings growth is expected to slow down, as forecasted in the current analyst estimates. Are these analysts expectations based on the broad expectations for the industry, or on the company's fundamentals? Click here to be taken to our analyst's forecasts page for the company.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.