Promotica (BIT:PMT) - Share price, News & Analysis

Q: What is the Fair Price of PMT when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

PMT (€3.09) is trading below our estimate of [[fair value]] (€11.73)

PMT fundamental analysis
Snowflake Score
Valuation	3/6
Future Growth	2/6
Past Performance	1/6
Financial Health	4/6
Dividends	1/6

PMT Stock Overview

Promotica S.p.A. operates in the loyalty marketing sector in Italy.

Rewards

Trading at 73.7% below our estimate of its fair value

Revenue is forecast to grow 23.53% per year

Risk Analysis

Debt is not well covered by operating cash flow

High level of non-cash earnings

Dividend of 1.94% is not well covered by earnings

Profit margins (3.5%) are lower than last year (7.5%)

+ 1 more risk

Promotica Competitors

IVS Group

BIT:IVS

€381.3m

Compagnia dei Caraibi

BIT:1TIME

€60.5m

Acquazzurra

BIT:ACQ

€30.0m

Nice Footwear

BIT:NFT

€23.0m

Price History & Performance

Summary of all time highs, changes and price drops for Promotica
Historical stock prices
Current Share Price	€3.09
52 Week High	€3.76
52 Week Low	€2.36
Beta	0
1 Month Change	-2.83%
3 Month Change	13.60%
1 Year Change	16.17%
3 Year Change	n/a
5 Year Change	n/a
Change since IPO	79.51%

Shareholder Returns

	PMT	IT Online Retail	IT Market
7D	4.4%	2.2%	1.1%
1Y	16.2%	-43.0%	-15.4%

Return vs Industry: PMT exceeded the Italian Online Retail industry which returned -44.5% over the past year.

Return vs Market: PMT exceeded the Italian Market which returned -16% over the past year.

Price Volatility

Is PMT's price volatile compared to industry and market?
PMT volatility
PMT Average Weekly Movement	5.9%
Online Retail Industry Average Movement	5.4%
Market Average Movement	4.9%
10% most volatile stocks in IT Market	7.7%
10% least volatile stocks in IT Market	3.1%

Stable Share Price: PMT is not significantly more volatile than the rest of Italian stocks over the past 3 months, typically moving +/- 6% a week.

Volatility Over Time: PMT's weekly volatility (6%) has been stable over the past year.

About the Company

Founded	Employees	CEO	Website
2003	68	Diego Toscani	https://www.promotica.it

Promotica S.p.A. operates in the loyalty marketing sector in Italy. It designs, organizes, and manages promotional operations and campaigns. The company was founded in 2003 and is headquartered in Desenzano del Garda, Italy.

Promotica Fundamentals Summary

How do Promotica's earnings and revenue compare to its market cap?
PMT fundamental statistics
Market Cap	€49.66m
Earnings (TTM)	€1.38m
Revenue (TTM)	€39.92m

36.0x

P/E Ratio

1.2x

P/S Ratio

Is PMT overvalued?

See Fair Value and valuation analysis

Earnings & Revenue

Key profitability statistics from the latest earnings report
PMT income statement (TTM)
Revenue	€39.92m
Cost of Revenue	€37.51m
Gross Profit	€2.41m
Other Expenses	€1.03m
Earnings	€1.38m

Last Reported Earnings

Dec 31, 2021

Next Earnings Date

Sep 08, 2022

Earnings per share (EPS)	0.086
Gross Margin	6.04%
Net Profit Margin	3.46%
Debt/Equity Ratio	123.1%

How did PMT perform over the long term?

See historical performance and comparison

Dividends

1.9%

Current Dividend Yield

n/a

Payout Ratio

We’ve recently updated our valuation analysis.

Valuation

Is PMT undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Analyst Forecast

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for PMT?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

The above table shows the n/a ratio for PMT. This is calculated by dividing PMT's market cap by their current preferred multiple.
What is PMT's n/a Ratio?
n/a Ratio	0x
n/a	n/a
Market Cap	€49.66m

PMT key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	1.6x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	31.4x
PEG Ratio	n/a

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does PMT's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

PMT PE Ratio vs Peers

The above table shows the PE ratio for PMT vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	PE	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	48.8x
IVS IVS Group	50.8x	55.5%	€381.3m
1TIME Compagnia dei Caraibi	25.4x	25.0%	€60.5m
ACQ Acquazzurra	92.9x	30.9%	€30.0m
NFT Nice Footwear	26.1x	31.4%	€23.0m
PMT Promotica	36x	n/a	€49.7m

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: PMT is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (36x) compared to the peer average (48.8x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does PMT's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Online Retail Industry?

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: PMT is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (36x) compared to the European Online Retail industry average (22.4x)

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is PMT's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

PMT PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio	36x
Fair PE Ratio	n/a

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: Insufficient data to calculate PMT's Price-To-Earnings Fair Ratio for valuation analysis.

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of PMT when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: PMT (€3.09) is trading below our estimate of fair value (€11.73)

Significantly Below Fair Value: PMT is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

Analyst Forecast: Insufficient data to show price forecast.

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Future Growth

How is Promotica forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 1 analyst?

Future Growth Score

2/6

Future Growth Score 2/6

Earnings vs Savings Rate
Earnings vs Market
High Growth Earnings
Revenue vs Market
High Growth Revenue
Future ROE

23.5%

Forecasted annual revenue growth

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: Insufficient data to determine if PMT's forecast earnings growth is above the savings rate (1.7%).

Earnings vs Market: Insufficient data to determine if PMT's earnings are forecast to grow faster than the Italian market

High Growth Earnings: Insufficient data to determine if PMT's earnings are expected to grow significantly over the next 3 years.

Revenue vs Market: PMT's revenue (23.5% per year) is forecast to grow faster than the Italian market (-0.1% per year).

High Growth Revenue: PMT's revenue (23.5% per year) is forecast to grow faster than 20% per year.

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: Insufficient data to determine if PMT's Return on Equity is forecast to be high in 3 years time

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Past Performance

How has Promotica performed over the past 5 years?

Past Performance Score

1/6

Past Performance Score 1/6

Quality Earnings
Growing Profit Margin
Earnings Trend
Accelerating Growth
Earnings vs Industry
High ROE

26.5%

Historical annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue History

Quality Earnings: PMT has a high level of non-cash earnings.

Growing Profit Margin: PMT's current net profit margins (3.5%) are lower than last year (7.5%).

Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: PMT's earnings have grown significantly by 26.5% per year over the past 5 years.

Accelerating Growth: PMT's has had negative earnings growth over the past year, so it can't be compared to its 5-year average.

Earnings vs Industry: PMT had negative earnings growth (-67.8%) over the past year, making it difficult to compare to the Online Retail industry average (-14.5%).

Return on Equity

High ROE: PMT's Return on Equity (11.5%) is considered low.

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Financial Health

How is Promotica's financial position?

Financial Health Score

4/6

Financial Health Score 4/6

Short Term Liabilities
Long Term Liabilities
Debt Level
Reducing Debt
Debt Coverage
Interest Coverage

Financial Position Analysis

Short Term Liabilities: PMT's short term assets (€37.8M) exceed its short term liabilities (€29.6M).

Long Term Liabilities: PMT's short term assets (€37.8M) exceed its long term liabilities (€5.6M).

Debt to Equity History and Analysis

Debt Level: PMT's net debt to equity ratio (100%) is considered high.

Reducing Debt: PMT's debt to equity ratio has reduced from 197.3% to 123.1% over the past 5 years.

Debt Coverage: PMT's operating cash flow is negative, therefore debt is not well covered.

Interest Coverage: PMT's interest payments on its debt are well covered by EBIT (11.4x coverage).

Balance Sheet

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Dividend

What is Promotica current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

Dividend Score

1/6

Dividend Score 1/6

Notable Dividend
High Dividend
Stable Dividend
Growing Dividend
Earnings Coverage
Cash Flow Coverage

1.94%

Current Dividend Yield

Dividend Yield vs Market

Notable Dividend: PMT's dividend (1.94%) is higher than the bottom 25% of dividend payers in the Italian market (1.65%).

High Dividend: PMT's dividend (1.94%) is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the Italian market (5.18%).

Stability and Growth of Payments

Stable Dividend: Too early to tell whether PMT's dividend payments have been stable as they only just started paying a dividend.

Growing Dividend: Too early to tell if PMT's dividend payments are increasing as they only just started paying a dividend.

Earnings Payout to Shareholders

Earnings Coverage: Insufficient data to calculate payout ratio to determine if its dividend payments are covered by earnings.

Cash Payout to Shareholders

Cash Flow Coverage: PMT is paying a dividend but the company has no free cash flows.

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Management

How experienced are the management team and are they aligned to shareholders interests?

CEO

Diego Toscani

no data

Tenure

Mr. Diego Toscani is Chairman of the Board of Directors and Chief Executive Officer at Promotica S.p.A. He graduated in Economics and Commerce in 1996 from the University of Brescia.

Ownership

Who are the major shareholders and have insiders been buying or selling?

Insider Trading Volume

Insider Buying: Insufficient data to determine if insiders have bought more shares than they have sold in the past 3 months.

Ownership Breakdown

Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have not been meaningfully diluted in the past year.

Data	Last Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis	2022/08/15 00:00
End of Day Share Price	2022/08/12 00:00
Earnings	2021/12/31
Annual Earnings	2021/12/31