Buy Or Sell Opportunity • Apr 28
Now 22% undervalued Over the last 90 days, the stock has risen 22% to €1.67. The fair value is estimated to be €2.14, however this is not to be taken as a buy recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has declined by 13% over the last 3 years. Meanwhile, the company has become profitable. Revenue is forecast to grow by 25% in 2 years. Earnings are forecast to grow by 2,199% in the next 2 years. Price Target Changed • Apr 24
Price target increased by 25% to €2.50 Up from €2.00, the current price target is provided by 1 analyst. New target price is 46% above last closing price of €1.71. Stock is up 8.2% over the past year. Reported Earnings • Apr 06
Full year 2025 earnings released Full year 2025 results: Revenue: €46.7m (up 11% from FY 2024). Net income: €100.0k (up €6.75m from FY 2024). Profit margin: 0.2% (up from net loss in FY 2024). The move to profitability was primarily driven by higher revenue. New Risk • Apr 05
New major risk - Revenue and earnings growth Earnings have declined by 66% per year over the past 5 years. This is considered a major risk. Ultimately, shareholders want to see a good return on their investment and that generally comes from sharing in the company's profits. If profits are declining over an extended period, then in most cases the share price will decline over time unless the company can turn around its fortunes. A trend of falling earnings can be very difficult to turn around. If the company is well already established it may also be a sign the company has matured and is in decline. In addition, if the company pays dividends it will also likely need to reduce or cut them, striking a dual blow to total shareholder returns. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risk Earnings have declined by 66% per year over the past 5 years. Minor Risks High level of debt (162% net debt to equity). Share price has been volatile over the past 3 months (6.8% average weekly change). Market cap is less than US$100m (€19.2m market cap, or US$22.1m). Announcement • Apr 02
Leone Film Group S.p.A., Annual General Meeting, Apr 29, 2026 Leone Film Group S.p.A., Annual General Meeting, Apr 29, 2026, at 17:00 W. Europe Standard Time. Location: in via birmania 74 and 76, roma Italy New Risk • Mar 08
New minor risk - Share price stability The company's share price has been volatile over the past 3 months. It is more volatile than 75% of Italian stocks, typically moving 5.9% a week. This is considered a minor risk. Share price volatility indicates the stock is highly sensitive to market conditions or economic conditions rather than being sensitive to its own business performance, which may also be inconsistent. It also increases the risk of potential losses in the short term as the stock tends to have larger drops in price more frequently than other stocks. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Minor Risks High level of debt (162% net debt to equity). Share price has been volatile over the past 3 months (5.9% average weekly change). Market cap is less than US$100m (€21.6m market cap, or US$25.0m). Board Change • Aug 19
Less than half of directors are independent Following the recent departure of a director, there is only 1 independent director on the board. The company's board is composed of: 1 independent director. 6 non-independent directors. Independent Director Fabrizio de Scisciolo was the last independent director to join the board, commencing their role in 2019. The company's minority of independent directors is a risk according to the Simply Wall St Risk Model. Major Estimate Revision • Apr 23
Consensus revenue estimates fall by 18% The consensus outlook for revenues in fiscal year 2025 has deteriorated. 2025 revenue forecast decreased from €72.1m to €58.9m. Forecast loss of -€0.02, down from profit of €0.287 per share profit previously. Entertainment industry in Italy expected to see average net income growth of 40% next year. Consensus price target down from €2.00 to €1.92. Share price was steady at €1.58 over the past week. Price Target Changed • Apr 23
Price target decreased by 8.6% to €1.92 Down from €2.10, the current price target is provided by 1 analyst. New target price is 22% above last closing price of €1.58. Stock is down 7.6% over the past year. The company is forecast to post a net loss per share of €0.02 next year compared to a net loss per share of €0.47 last year. Reported Earnings • Apr 16
Full year 2024 earnings: EPS and revenues miss analyst expectations Full year 2024 results: €0.47 loss per share (further deteriorated from €0.055 loss in FY 2023). Revenue: €43.1m (down 49% from FY 2023). Net loss: €6.65m (loss widened €5.87m from FY 2023). Revenue missed analyst estimates by 14%. Earnings per share (EPS) were also behind analyst expectations. Over the last 3 years on average, the company's share price growth rate has exceeded its earnings growth rate by 108 percentage points per year, which is a significant difference in performance. Announcement • Apr 07
Leone Film Group S.p.A., Annual General Meeting, Apr 17, 2025 Leone Film Group S.p.A., Annual General Meeting, Apr 17, 2025, at 17:00 W. Europe Standard Time. Location: in via birmania 74 76, roma Italy New Risk • Apr 15
New major risk - Revenue and earnings growth Earnings have declined by 8.2% per year over the past 5 years. This is considered a major risk. Ultimately, shareholders want to see a good return on their investment and that generally comes from sharing in the company's profits. If profits are declining over an extended period, then in most cases the share price will decline over time unless the company can turn around its fortunes. A trend of falling earnings can be very difficult to turn around. If the company is well already established it may also be a sign the company has matured and is in decline. In addition, if the company pays dividends it will also likely need to reduce or cut them, striking a dual blow to total shareholder returns. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risks Interest payments are not well covered by earnings (0.8x net interest cover). Dividend is not well covered by earnings and cash flows. Payout ratio: 112% Paying a dividend despite having no free cash flows. Earnings have declined by 8.2% per year over the past 5 years. Minor Risk Market cap is less than US$100m (€24.1m market cap, or US$25.6m). Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Dec 18
Investor sentiment improves as stock rises 20% After last week's 20% share price gain to €1.68, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 11x. Average forward P/E is 6x in the Entertainment industry in Italy. Total loss to shareholders of 18% over the past three years. Major Estimate Revision • Oct 19
Consensus EPS estimates fall by 62% The consensus outlook for fiscal year 2023 has been updated. 2023 EPS estimate fell from €0.26 to €0.10 per share. Revenue forecast steady at €99.5m. Net income forecast to grow 94% next year vs 94% growth forecast for Entertainment industry in Italy. Consensus price target down from €2.70 to €2.50. Share price rose 2.1% to €1.47 over the past week. Buying Opportunity • Jul 03
Now 22% undervalued after recent price drop Over the last 90 days, the stock is down 14%. The fair value is estimated to be €2.28, however this is not to be taken as a buy recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has grown by 3.0% over the last 3 years. Earnings per share has grown by 82%. Revenue is forecast to grow by 121% in 2 years. Earnings is forecast to grow by 93% in the next 2 years. Upcoming Dividend • Jun 26
Upcoming dividend of €0.90 per share at 4.6% yield Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 03 July 2023. Payment date: 05 July 2023. Payout ratio is a comfortable 51% but the company is not cash flow positive. Trailing yield: 4.6%. Lower than top quartile of Italian dividend payers (5.3%). Higher than average of industry peers (2.1%). Major Estimate Revision • Apr 26
Consensus EPS estimates fall by 13%, revenue upgraded The consensus outlook for fiscal year 2023 has been updated. 2023 revenue forecast increased from €91.5m to €99.5m. EPS estimate fell from €0.30 to €0.26 per share. Net income forecast to grow 50% next year vs 38% growth forecast for Entertainment industry in Italy. Consensus price target down from €3.00 to €2.70. Share price was steady at €1.94 over the past week. Board Change • Nov 16
Less than half of directors are independent No new directors have joined the board in the last 3 years. The company's board is composed of: No new directors. 8 experienced directors. No highly experienced directors. 1 independent director (4 non-independent directors). Independent Director Marra De Fabrizio was the last independent director to join the board, commencing their role in 2019. The following issues are considered to be risks according to the Simply Wall St Risk Model: Minority of independent directors. Insufficient board refreshment. Major Estimate Revision • Oct 11
Consensus revenue estimates fall by 36% The consensus outlook for revenues in 2022 has deteriorated. 2022 revenue forecast decreased from €75.7m to €48.6m. EPS estimate fell from €0.26 to €0.18 per share. Net income forecast to shrink 49% next year vs 3.3% growth forecast for Entertainment industry in Italy . Consensus price target down from €3.60 to €3.00. Share price fell 4.0% to €1.91 over the past week. Reported Earnings • Oct 03
First half 2022 earnings released: EPS: €0.10 (vs €0.034 in 1H 2021) First half 2022 results: EPS: €0.10 (up from €0.034 in 1H 2021). Revenue: €25.2m (down 31% from 1H 2021). Net income: €1.37m (up 183% from 1H 2021). Profit margin: 5.5% (up from 1.3% in 1H 2021). The increase in margin was driven by lower expenses. Revenue is forecast to grow 18% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 8.5% growth forecast for the Entertainment industry in Italy. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 46% per year but the company’s share price has fallen by 26% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings. Upcoming Dividend • Jun 13
Upcoming dividend of €0.14 per share Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 20 June 2022. Payment date: 22 June 2022. Trailing yield: 5.1%. Within top quartile of Italian dividend payers (4.9%). Higher than average of industry peers (1.8%). Major Estimate Revision • Apr 29
Consensus revenue estimates fall by 32% The consensus outlook for revenues in 2022 has deteriorated. 2022 revenue forecast decreased from €112.1m to €75.7m. EPS estimate fell from €0.39 to €0.26 per share. Net income forecast to shrink 37% next year vs 6.4% growth forecast for Entertainment industry in Italy . Consensus price target down from €3.90 to €3.60. Share price rose 7.7% to €2.80 over the past week. Price Target Changed • Apr 27
Price target increased to €3.90 Up from €3.30, the current price target is provided by 1 analyst. New target price is 40% above last closing price of €2.79. Stock is up 3.3% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of €0.39 for next year compared to €0.42 last year. Board Change • Apr 27
Less than half of directors are independent No new directors have joined the board in the last 3 years. The company's board is composed of: No new directors. 8 experienced directors. No highly experienced directors. 1 independent director (4 non-independent directors). Independent Director Marra De Fabrizio was the last independent director to join the board, commencing their role in 2019. The following issues are considered to be risks according to the Simply Wall St Risk Model: Minority of independent directors. Insufficient board refreshment. Reported Earnings • Apr 19
Full year 2021 earnings: Revenues exceed analysts expectations while EPS lags behind Full year 2021 results: EPS: €0.42 (up from €0.085 loss in FY 2020). Revenue: €81.6m (up 31% from FY 2020). Net income: €5.87m (up €7.07m from FY 2020). Profit margin: 7.2% (up from net loss in FY 2020). The move to profitability was driven by higher revenue. Revenue exceeded analyst estimates by 5.6%. Earnings per share (EPS) missed analyst estimates by 100%. Over the next year, revenue is forecast to grow 37%, compared to a 16% growth forecast for the industry in Italy. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 26% per year but the company’s share price has only fallen by 18% per year, which means it has not declined as severely as earnings. Reported Earnings • Oct 01
First half 2021 earnings released: EPS €0.03 (vs €0.24 loss in 1H 2020) The company reported a strong first half result with improved earnings, revenues and profit margins. First half 2021 results: Revenue: €36.2m (up 152% from 1H 2020). Net income: €486.0k (up €3.94m from 1H 2020). Profit margin: 1.3% (up from net loss in 1H 2020). The move to profitability was driven by higher revenue. Over the last 3 years on average, the company's share price growth rate has exceeded its earnings growth rate by 63 percentage points per year, which is a significant difference in performance. Is New 90 Day High Low • Jan 19
New 90-day high: €3.00 The company is up 47% from its price of €2.04 on 21 October 2020. The Italian market is up 13% over the last 90 days, indicating the company outperformed over that time. It also outperformed the Entertainment industry, which is up 6.0% over the same period. Is New 90 Day High Low • Oct 21
New 90-day low: €2.04 The company is down 30% from its price of €2.90 on 22 July 2020. The Italian market is down 7.0% over the last 90 days, indicating the company underperformed over that time. It also underperformed the Entertainment industry, which is down 22% over the same period. Reported Earnings • Oct 01
First half earnings released Over the last 12 months the company has reported total losses of €4.29m, with earnings decreasing by €10.3m from the prior year. Total revenue was €55.3m over the last 12 months, down 28% from the prior year. Is New 90 Day High Low • Sep 25
New 90-day low: €2.60 The company is down 6.0% from its price of €2.78 on 26 June 2020. The Italian market is down 2.0% over the last 90 days, indicating the company underperformed over that time. However, its price trend is similar to the Entertainment industry, which is also down 6.0% over the same period.