Tenaris S.A. Beat Analyst Estimates: See What The Consensus Is Forecasting For Next Year

A week ago, Tenaris S.A. (BIT:TEN) came out with a strong set of third-quarter numbers that could potentially lead to a re-rate of the stock. It was overall a positive result, with revenues beating expectations by 4.4% to hit US$2.9b. Tenaris also reported a statutory profit of US$0.40, which was an impressive 25% above what the analysts had forecast. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.

Check out our latest analysis for Tenaris

After the latest results, the consensus from Tenaris' 15 analysts is for revenues of US$12.3b in 2025, which would reflect a perceptible 6.0% decline in revenue compared to the last year of performance. Statutory earnings per share are expected to plummet 22% to US$1.87 in the same period. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$12.1b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$1.81 in 2025. The analysts seems to have become more bullish on the business, judging by their new earnings per share estimates.

The consensus price target was unchanged at €18.41, implying that the improved earnings outlook is not expected to have a long term impact on value creation for shareholders. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Tenaris at €22.64 per share, while the most bearish prices it at €14.09. This shows there is still a bit of diversity in estimates, but analysts don't appear to be totally split on the stock as though it might be a success or failure situation.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. These estimates imply that revenue is expected to slow, with a forecast annualised decline of 4.9% by the end of 2025. This indicates a significant reduction from annual growth of 22% over the last five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 2.5% annually for the foreseeable future. So although its revenues are forecast to shrink, this cloud does not come with a silver lining - Tenaris is expected to lag the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing here is that the analysts upgraded their earnings per share estimates, suggesting that there has been a clear increase in optimism towards Tenaris following these results. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have forecasts for Tenaris going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You still need to take note of risks, for example - Tenaris has 2 warning signs (and 1 which is concerning) we think you should know about.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.