Tenaris (BIT:TEN): Assessing Valuation After Recent Share Price Gains

Tenaris (BIT:TEN) has seen its shares nudge higher recently, catching some attention from investors tracking energy sector moves. After a steady month, questions are popping up about what could drive momentum from this point.

See our latest analysis for Tenaris.

Tenaris’s 12.8% share price jump over the past month stands out, especially after a quieter start to the year. This momentum contributed to a stronger 1-year total shareholder return of 6.7%, in addition to impressive longer-term gains for investors.

If Tenaris’s recent surge has you thinking about what else could take off next, now’s a great chance to discover fast growing stocks with high insider ownership

With shares up but growth metrics mixed, the question now is whether Tenaris is trading below its true value or if the market has already factored in every bit of future upside. Is this a fresh opportunity, or has the window already closed?

Most Popular Narrative: 1.3% Undervalued

Tenaris's most-watched narrative puts its fair value just above the current share price, hinting the market may be undervaluing the company’s future prospects. With the latest close at €17.60 and a narrative fair value of €17.83, even small changes in outlook could quickly shift investor sentiment.

Ongoing global energy demand, supported by population and economic growth, continues to drive long-term investments in oil and gas infrastructure. This is illustrated by Tenaris's expanding backlog of large-scale projects (for example, Brazil, Nigeria, Guyana-Suriname Basin, Vaca Muerta), which is likely to underpin resilient future revenues. The dual focus on energy security and regional diversification is prompting new exploration and development in strategic markets (such as the Middle East and Latin America). This allows Tenaris to capture incremental sales from both traditional and frontier basins, supporting revenue stability and expansion.

Read the complete narrative.

Curious what’s behind this valuation edge? The blueprint mixes powerful macro drivers with precise financial assumptions about margins, project scale, and geographic pivots. Want to see how tightly these growth levers shape the story and why analysts remain split on the years ahead? Dive in to unpack the specific forward bets anchoring Tenaris’s projected worth.

Result: Fair Value of $17.83 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, persistent U.S. inventory overhang and intensifying regulatory pressures on fossil fuels could quickly undermine the bullish view and spark renewed doubts about future earnings.

Find out about the key risks to this Tenaris narrative.

Build Your Own Tenaris Narrative

If you see the story differently or want to dig through the numbers yourself, you can assemble your own take in just a few minutes. Do it your way

A great starting point for your Tenaris research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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