Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • May 11
Investor sentiment improves as stock rises 20% After last week's 20% share price gain to €27.53, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 11x. Average forward P/E is 8x in the Oil and Gas industry in Europe. Total loss to shareholders of 20% over the past three years. Simply Wall St's valuation model estimates the intrinsic value at €43.93 per share. Buy Or Sell Opportunity • May 04
Now 31% undervalued Over the last 90 days, the stock has risen 17% to €22.86. The fair value is estimated to be €33.18, however this is not to be taken as a buy recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has declined by 8.8% over the last 3 years. Meanwhile, the company has become profitable. For the next 3 years, revenue is forecast to grow by 8.0% per annum. Earnings are also forecast to grow by 11% per annum over the same time period. Reported Earnings • Apr 30
First quarter 2026 earnings released: EPS: €0.69 (vs €0.052 loss in 1Q 2025) First quarter 2026 results: EPS: €0.69 (up from €0.052 loss in 1Q 2025). Revenue: €5.17b (up 3.1% from 1Q 2025). Net income: €533.0m (up €573.0m from 1Q 2025). Profit margin: 10% (up from net loss in 1Q 2025). The move to profitability was primarily driven by lower expenses. Revenue is forecast to grow 7.9% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 1.6% growth forecast for the Oil and Gas industry in Europe. Over the last 3 years on average, the company's share price growth rate has exceeded its earnings growth rate by 60 percentage points per year, which is a significant difference in performance. New Risk • Apr 29
New major risk - Revenue and earnings growth Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 5.3% per year for the foreseeable future. This is considered a major risk. Ultimately, shareholders want to see a good return on their investment and that generally comes from sharing in the company's profits. If profits are expected to decline, then in most cases the share price will decline over time as well. In addition, if the company pays dividends it will also likely need to reduce or cut them, striking a dual blow to total shareholder returns. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risks Share price has been highly volatile over the past 3 months (32% average weekly change). Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 5.3% per year for the foreseeable future. Buy Or Sell Opportunity • Apr 16
Now 28% undervalued Over the last 90 days, the stock has risen 5.7% to €21.49. The fair value is estimated to be €29.84, however this is not to be taken as a buy recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has declined by 9.4% over the last 3 years. Meanwhile, the company has become profitable. For the next 3 years, revenue is forecast to grow by 7.0% per annum. Earnings are also forecast to grow by 26% per annum over the same time period. Buy Or Sell Opportunity • Mar 23
Now 21% undervalued Over the last 90 days, the stock has risen 49% to €28.86. The fair value is estimated to be €36.46, however this is not to be taken as a buy recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has declined by 9.4% over the last 3 years. Meanwhile, the company has become profitable. For the next 3 years, revenue is forecast to grow by 6.8% per annum. Earnings are also forecast to grow by 28% per annum over the same time period. Upcoming Dividend • Mar 19
Upcoming dividend of €0.20 per share Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 26 March 2026. Payment date: 07 April 2026. The company is paying out more than 100% of its profits but is generating plenty of cash to support the dividend. Trailing yield: 0.7%. Lower than top quartile of Italian dividend payers (4.9%). Lower than average of industry peers (4.3%). Buy Or Sell Opportunity • Mar 05
Now 29% undervalued Over the last 90 days, the stock has risen 7.3% to €19.10. The fair value is estimated to be €26.78, however this is not to be taken as a buy recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has declined by 9.4% over the last 3 years. Meanwhile, the company has become profitable. For the next 3 years, revenue is forecast to grow by 7.0% per annum. Earnings are also forecast to grow by 31% per annum over the same time period. Announcement • Mar 05
Neste Corporation Announces Management Changes, Effective 1 April 2026 Neste Corporation appointed new leadership team members as part of an organizational change that primarily affects the company's Renewable Products business. As of 1 April 2026, Renewable Products commercial, refining, and feedstock sourcing and trading will be represented in Neste's leadership team. At the same time, Neste will establish a Renewable Products, North America business unit, responsible for all renewable products business in North America, including regional feedstock and commercial operations as well as Martinez joint venture. From 1 April 2026 onwards, Neste's leadership team members will consist of Heikki Malinen, President and CEO, and the following leadership team members, who will all report to the President and CEO: Jori Sahlsten, Executive Vice President, Oil Products business area; Artturi Mikkola, Senior Vice President, Renewable Products Feedstock Sourcing and Trading; Jukka Kanerva, Senior Vice President, Renewable Products Refining; Carl Nyberg, Senior Vice President, Renewable Products Commercial; N.N., President, Renewable Products, North America (Carl Nyberg as interim); Markku Korvenranta, Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer (COO); Eeva Sipilä, Chief Financial Officer (CFO); Hannele Jakosuo-Jansson, Executive Vice President, People & Culture. These changes will not affect Neste's financial reporting segments. Declared Dividend • Feb 07
Dividend of €0.20 announced Dividend of €0.20 is the same as last year. Ex-date: 26th March 2026 Payment date: 7th April 2026 Dividend yield will be 1.2%, which is lower than the industry average of 6.4%. Sustainability & Growth Dividend is not covered by earnings (107% earnings payout ratio). However, it is well covered by cash flows (19% cash payout ratio). The dividend has decreased over the past 10 years, indicating a lack of growth and stability in payments. The company's earnings per share (EPS) would need to grow by 19% to bring the payout ratio under control. EPS is expected to grow by 120% over the next 3 years, which is sufficient to bring the dividend into a sustainable range. Announcement • Feb 07
Neste Corporation Appoints Jukka Siukosaari as Senior Vice President, Public Affairs and Geopolitics, Effective June 1, 2026 Neste Corporation has appointed Jukka Siukosaari, MSc (Econ.), as Senior Vice President, Public Affairs and Geopolitics, effective June 1, 2026. He will report to Heikki Malinen, President and CEO of Neste and be a member of Neste’s Extended Leadership Team. Siukosaari will join Neste from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs where he currently serves as Ambassador of Finland to the Kingdom of Denmark. Previously he has served as Finland’s ambassador to the United Kingdom, Japan and Argentina as well as the Permanent Representative to the IMO (International Maritime Organization). From 2018 to 2021 he was Chief of Staff at the Office of the President of the Republic of Finland. Reported Earnings • Feb 06
Full year 2025 earnings released: EPS: €0.19 (vs €0.12 loss in FY 2024) Full year 2025 results: EPS: €0.19 (up from €0.12 loss in FY 2024). Revenue: €19.0b (down 7.8% from FY 2024). Net income: €144.0m (up €239.0m from FY 2024). Profit margin: 0.8% (up from net loss in FY 2024). The move to profitability was driven by lower expenses. Revenue is forecast to grow 8.8% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 1.0% growth forecast for the Oil and Gas industry in Europe. Over the last 3 years on average, the company's share price growth rate has exceeded its earnings growth rate by 57 percentage points per year, which is a significant difference in performance. New Risk • Oct 30
New major risk - Financial position The company's interest payments are not well covered by earnings. Net interest cover: 0.8x This is considered a major risk. If the company is unable to fund interest repayments on its debt through profits, it may be forced into reducing its debt burden through selling assets, undertaking a potentially costly capital raising or even into bankruptcy in the worst case scenario. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risks Interest payments are not well covered by earnings (0.8x net interest cover). Share price has been highly volatile over the past 3 months (15% average weekly change). Reported Earnings • Oct 30
Third quarter 2025 earnings released: EPS: €0.14 (vs €0.03 in 3Q 2024) Third quarter 2025 results: EPS: €0.14 (up from €0.03 in 3Q 2024). Revenue: €4.53b (down 19% from 3Q 2024). Net income: €106.0m (up 361% from 3Q 2024). Profit margin: 2.3% (up from 0.4% in 3Q 2024). The increase in margin was driven by lower expenses. Revenue is forecast to grow 6.6% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 1.6% growth forecast for the Oil and Gas industry in Europe. Over the last 3 years on average, the company's share price growth rate has exceeded its earnings growth rate by 54 percentage points per year, which is a significant difference in performance. Announcement • Oct 29
Neste Oyj Announces Guidance Unchanged for 2025 Neste Oyj announced guidance unchanged. for 2025 For the year, the company expected renewable products' sales volumes in 2025 are expected to be higher than in 2024. Oil Products' sales volumes in 2025 are expected to be higher than in 2024. Buy Or Sell Opportunity • Oct 17
Now 21% undervalued Over the last 90 days, the stock has risen 24% to €16.45. The fair value is estimated to be €20.75, however this is not to be taken as a buy recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has declined by 5.7% over the last 3 years. Meanwhile, the company became loss making. Buy Or Sell Opportunity • Aug 18
Now 21% undervalued Over the last 90 days, the stock has risen 43% to €14.44. The fair value is estimated to be €18.27, however this is not to be taken as a buy recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has declined by 5.7% over the last 3 years. Meanwhile, the company became loss making. Buy Or Sell Opportunity • Jul 30
Now 26% undervalued Over the last 90 days, the stock has risen 52% to €13.99. The fair value is estimated to be €18.79, however this is not to be taken as a buy recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has declined by 5.7% over the last 3 years. Meanwhile, the company became loss making. Reported Earnings • Jul 25
Second quarter 2025 earnings released: €0.05 loss per share (vs €0.19 loss in 2Q 2024) Second quarter 2025 results: €0.05 loss per share (improved from €0.19 loss in 2Q 2024). Revenue: €4.51b (down 2.8% from 2Q 2024). Net loss: €36.0m (loss narrowed 75% from 2Q 2024). Revenue is forecast to grow 4.6% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, while revenues in the Oil and Gas industry in Europe are expected to remain flat. Over the last 3 years on average, the company's share price growth rate has exceeded its earnings growth rate by 36 percentage points per year, which is a significant difference in performance. Announcement • Jun 09
Neste Corporation Appoints Members to Shareholders' Nomination Board Neste Corporation has appointed the following members to the Shareholders' Nomination Board: Director General Maija Strandberg of the Ownership Steering Department in the Prime Minister's Office of Finland, as the Chair, and Senior Vice President, Investments Timo Sallinen of Varma Mutual Pension Insurance Company and Head of Equities Annika Ekman of Ilmarinen Mutual Pension Insurance Company, as its members. Pasi Laine, the Chair of Neste's Board of Directors, acts as an expert to the Nomination Board. According to the Charter for the Shareholders' Nomination Board, the members represent the company's three largest shareholders. Shareholders entitled to elect members to the Nomination Board are determined annually on the basis of the shareholders' register as of the first banking day in June. The Shareholders' Nomination Board is responsible for preparing and presenting proposals to the Annual General Meeting concerning Board members and the number of Board members. The Nomination Board shall forward its proposals to Neste's Board of Directors by January 31, 2026. Buy Or Sell Opportunity • May 29
Now 30% undervalued after recent price drop Over the last 90 days, the stock has fallen 8.8% to €7.86. The fair value is estimated to be €11.19, however this is not to be taken as a buy recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has been flat over the last 3 years. Meanwhile, the company became loss making. Buy Or Sell Opportunity • May 06
Now 22% undervalued after recent price drop Over the last 90 days, the stock has fallen 22% to €9.23. The fair value is estimated to be €11.81, however this is not to be taken as a buy recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has been flat over the last 3 years. Meanwhile, the company became loss making. Reported Earnings • Apr 29
First quarter 2025 earnings released: €0.052 loss per share (vs €0.21 profit in 1Q 2024) First quarter 2025 results: €0.052 loss per share (down from €0.21 profit in 1Q 2024). Revenue: €5.02b (up 4.5% from 1Q 2024). Net loss: €40.0m (down 125% from profit in 1Q 2024). Revenue is forecast to grow 5.0% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, while revenues in the Oil and Gas industry in Europe are expected to remain flat. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 58% per year but the company’s share price has only fallen by 41% per year, which means it has not declined as severely as earnings. Announcement • Nov 09
Neste Oyj (HLSE:NESTE) acquired additional 29% stake in Neste Demeter B.V. Neste Oyj (HLSE:NESTE) acquired additional 29% stake in Neste Demeter B.V. on November 8, 2023. After this transaction Neste Oyj (HLSE:NESTE) Holds 80% stake in Neste Demeter B.V. Neste has also agreed to acquire the remaining shares of Neste Demeter B.V. over the next few years as agreed with the minority shareholders.
Neste Oyj (HLSE:NESTE) completed the acquisition of additional 29% stake in Neste Demeter B.V. on November 8, 2023. 
