Safilo Group S.p.A.'s (BIT:SFL) 25% Share Price Plunge Could Signal Some Risk

Safilo Group S.p.A. (BIT:SFL) shareholders that were waiting for something to happen have been dealt a blow with a 25% share price drop in the last month. The drop over the last 30 days has capped off a tough year for shareholders, with the share price down 37% in that time.

Even after such a large drop in price, you could still be forgiven for feeling indifferent about Safilo Group's P/S ratio of 0.3x, since the median price-to-sales (or "P/S") ratio for the Luxury industry in Italy is also close to 0.4x. While this might not raise any eyebrows, if the P/S ratio is not justified investors could be missing out on a potential opportunity or ignoring looming disappointment.

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Check out our latest analysis for Safilo Group

What Does Safilo Group's P/S Mean For Shareholders?

Safilo Group hasn't been tracking well recently as its declining revenue compares poorly to other companies, which have seen some growth in their revenues on average. Perhaps the market is expecting its poor revenue performance to improve, keeping the P/S from dropping. However, if this isn't the case, investors might get caught out paying too much for the stock.

If you'd like to see what analysts are forecasting going forward, you should check out our free report on Safilo Group .

Is There Some Revenue Growth Forecasted For Safilo Group?

Safilo Group's P/S ratio would be typical for a company that's only expected to deliver moderate growth, and importantly, perform in line with the industry.

In reviewing the last year of financials, we were disheartened to see the company's revenues fell to the tune of 3.1%. This has erased any of its gains during the last three years, with practically no change in revenue being achieved in total. Accordingly, shareholders probably wouldn't have been overly satisfied with the unstable medium-term growth rates.

Shifting to the future, estimates from the four analysts covering the company suggest revenue should grow by 4.2% each year over the next three years. That's shaping up to be materially lower than the 8.7% per annum growth forecast for the broader industry.

With this information, we find it interesting that Safilo Group is trading at a fairly similar P/S compared to the industry. It seems most investors are ignoring the fairly limited growth expectations and are willing to pay up for exposure to the stock. Maintaining these prices will be difficult to achieve as this level of revenue growth is likely to weigh down the shares eventually.

The Bottom Line On Safilo Group's P/S

Following Safilo Group's share price tumble, its P/S is just clinging on to the industry median P/S. We'd say the price-to-sales ratio's power isn't primarily as a valuation instrument but rather to gauge current investor sentiment and future expectations.

Our look at the analysts forecasts of Safilo Group's revenue prospects has shown that its inferior revenue outlook isn't negatively impacting its P/S as much as we would have predicted. When we see companies with a relatively weaker revenue outlook compared to the industry, we suspect the share price is at risk of declining, sending the moderate P/S lower. A positive change is needed in order to justify the current price-to-sales ratio.

The company's balance sheet is another key area for risk analysis. You can assess many of the main risks through our free balance sheet analysis for Safilo Group with six simple checks.

If you're unsure about the strength of Safilo Group's business, why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals for some other companies you may have missed.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.