Optimistic Investors Push Safilo Group S.p.A. (BIT:SFL) Shares Up 35% But Growth Is Lacking

Those holding Safilo Group S.p.A. (BIT:SFL) shares would be relieved that the share price has rebounded 35% in the last thirty days, but it needs to keep going to repair the recent damage it has caused to investor portfolios. Unfortunately, the gains of the last month did little to right the losses of the last year with the stock still down 26% over that time.

In spite of the firm bounce in price, there still wouldn't be many who think Safilo Group's price-to-sales (or "P/S") ratio of 0.4x is worth a mention when the median P/S in Italy's Luxury industry is similar at about 0.5x. While this might not raise any eyebrows, if the P/S ratio is not justified investors could be missing out on a potential opportunity or ignoring looming disappointment.

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See our latest analysis for Safilo Group

How Has Safilo Group Performed Recently?

Safilo Group hasn't been tracking well recently as its declining revenue compares poorly to other companies, which have seen some growth in their revenues on average. Perhaps the market is expecting its poor revenue performance to improve, keeping the P/S from dropping. You'd really hope so, otherwise you're paying a relatively elevated price for a company with this sort of growth profile.

If you'd like to see what analysts are forecasting going forward, you should check out our free report on Safilo Group.

What Are Revenue Growth Metrics Telling Us About The P/S?

The only time you'd be comfortable seeing a P/S like Safilo Group's is when the company's growth is tracking the industry closely.

Retrospectively, the last year delivered a frustrating 3.1% decrease to the company's top line. This has erased any of its gains during the last three years, with practically no change in revenue being achieved in total. Accordingly, shareholders probably wouldn't have been overly satisfied with the unstable medium-term growth rates.

Turning to the outlook, the next three years should generate growth of 3.2% per annum as estimated by the four analysts watching the company. That's shaping up to be materially lower than the 7.6% each year growth forecast for the broader industry.

With this information, we find it interesting that Safilo Group is trading at a fairly similar P/S compared to the industry. Apparently many investors in the company are less bearish than analysts indicate and aren't willing to let go of their stock right now. These shareholders may be setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/S falls to levels more in line with the growth outlook.

The Key Takeaway

Safilo Group appears to be back in favour with a solid price jump bringing its P/S back in line with other companies in the industry We'd say the price-to-sales ratio's power isn't primarily as a valuation instrument but rather to gauge current investor sentiment and future expectations.

Our look at the analysts forecasts of Safilo Group's revenue prospects has shown that its inferior revenue outlook isn't negatively impacting its P/S as much as we would have predicted. At present, we aren't confident in the P/S as the predicted future revenues aren't likely to support a more positive sentiment for long. A positive change is needed in order to justify the current price-to-sales ratio.

It is also worth noting that we have found 1 warning sign for Safilo Group that you need to take into consideration.

Of course, profitable companies with a history of great earnings growth are generally safer bets. So you may wish to see this free collection of other companies that have reasonable P/E ratios and have grown earnings strongly.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.