What trends should we look for it we want to identify stocks that can multiply in value over the long term? Firstly, we'll want to see a proven return on capital employed (ROCE) that is increasing, and secondly, an expanding base of capital employed. Put simply, these types of businesses are compounding machines, meaning they are continually reinvesting their earnings at ever-higher rates of return. However, after investigating Elica (BIT:ELC), we don't think it's current trends fit the mold of a multi-bagger.
Return On Capital Employed (ROCE): What is it?
Just to clarify if you're unsure, ROCE is a metric for evaluating how much pre-tax income (in percentage terms) a company earns on the capital invested in its business. Analysts use this formula to calculate it for Elica:
Return on Capital Employed = Earnings Before Interest and Tax (EBIT) ÷ (Total Assets - Current Liabilities)
0.038 = €9.3m ÷ (€382m - €137m) (Based on the trailing twelve months to September 2020).
Thus, Elica has an ROCE of 3.8%. Ultimately, that's a low return and it under-performs the Consumer Durables industry average of 7.9%.
See our latest analysis for Elica
In the above chart we have measured Elica's prior ROCE against its prior performance, but the future is arguably more important. If you'd like to see what analysts are forecasting going forward, you should check out our free report for Elica.
What Can We Tell From Elica's ROCE Trend?
In terms of Elica's historical ROCE movements, the trend isn't fantastic. Around five years ago the returns on capital were 9.1%, but since then they've fallen to 3.8%. Meanwhile, the business is utilizing more capital but this hasn't moved the needle much in terms of sales in the past 12 months, so this could reflect longer term investments. It may take some time before the company starts to see any change in earnings from these investments.
On a side note, Elica has done well to pay down its current liabilities to 36% of total assets. That could partly explain why the ROCE has dropped. What's more, this can reduce some aspects of risk to the business because now the company's suppliers or short-term creditors are funding less of its operations. Since the business is basically funding more of its operations with it's own money, you could argue this has made the business less efficient at generating ROCE.The Key Takeaway
In summary, Elica is reinvesting funds back into the business for growth but unfortunately it looks like sales haven't increased much just yet. Since the stock has gained an impressive 62% over the last five years, investors must think there's better things to come. Ultimately, if the underlying trends persist, we wouldn't hold our breath on it being a multi-bagger going forward.
On a final note, we found 2 warning signs for Elica (1 is a bit unpleasant) you should be aware of.
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About BIT:ELC
Elica
Designs, manufactures, and sells a range of hoods and extractor hobs in Europe and CIS countries, the United States, and internationally.
Excellent balance sheet and fair value.