Earnings Miss: Tinexta S.p.A. Missed EPS By 11% And Analysts Are Revising Their Forecasts

Shareholders of Tinexta S.p.A. (BIT:TNXT) will be pleased this week, given that the stock price is up 17% to €9.09 following its latest annual results. It was not a great result overall. While revenues of €455m were in line with analyst predictions, earnings were less than expected, missing statutory estimates by 11% to hit €0.39 per share. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

Check out our latest analysis for Tinexta

Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from Tinexta's five analysts is for revenues of €507.4m in 2025. This reflects a decent 11% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to surge 45% to €0.58. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of €513.7m and earnings per share (EPS) of €0.65 in 2025. So there's definitely been a decline in sentiment after the latest results, noting the real cut to new EPS forecasts.

The consensus price target held steady at €16.15, with the analysts seemingly voting that their lower forecast earnings are not expected to lead to a lower stock price in the foreseeable future. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. There are some variant perceptions on Tinexta, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at €27.00 and the most bearish at €10.00 per share. So we wouldn't be assigning too much credibility to analyst price targets in this case, because there are clearly some widely different views on what kind of performance this business can generate. With this in mind, we wouldn't rely too heavily the consensus price target, as it is just an average and analysts clearly have some deeply divergent views on the business.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. We can infer from the latest estimates that forecasts expect a continuation of Tinexta'shistorical trends, as the 11% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2025 is roughly in line with the 12% annual growth over the past five years. Compare this with the broader industry, which analyst estimates (in aggregate) suggest will see revenues grow 9.6% annually. It's clear that while Tinexta's revenue growth is expected to continue on its current trajectory, it's only expected to grow in line with the industry itself.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Tinexta. They also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, with the company predicted to grow at about the same rate as the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at €16.15, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Tinexta. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Tinexta going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here..

You should always think about risks though. Case in point, we've spotted 4 warning signs for Tinexta you should be aware of, and 1 of them is concerning.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.