Upcoming Dividend • May 27
Upcoming dividend of €0.03 per share Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 03 June 2024. Payment date: 05 June 2024. Payout ratio is a comfortable 30% and this is well supported by cash flows. Trailing yield: 1.3%. Lower than top quartile of Italian dividend payers (5.3%). Lower than average of industry peers (1.9%). New Risk • Apr 11
New major risk - Financial position The company's debt is not well covered by operating cash flow. Operating cash flow to total debt ratio: 13% This is considered a major risk. If the company's operating cash flows are too small relative to the size of their debt, it increases their balance sheet risk. The company has less cash from operations to cover its expenses from servicing large debt and it increases the risk of liquidity issues. It also extends the time it would take for the company to pay back the debt in full, meaning it may not be able to easily pay it all off in a distress scenario. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risks Debt is not well covered by operating cash flow (13% operating cash flow to total debt). Share price has been highly volatile over the past 3 months (37% average weekly change). Reported Earnings • Apr 11
Full year 2023 earnings released: EPS: €0.10 (vs €0.12 in FY 2022) Full year 2023 results: EPS: €0.10 (down from €0.12 in FY 2022). Revenue: €173.4m (up 3.5% from FY 2022). Net income: €15.0m (down 13% from FY 2022). Profit margin: 8.7% (down from 10% in FY 2022). The decrease in margin was driven by higher expenses. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 19% per year but the company’s share price has increased by 40% per year, which means it is tracking significantly ahead of earnings growth. New Risk • Apr 08
New minor risk - Financial data availability The company's latest financial reports are more than 6 months old. Last reported fiscal period ended June 2023. This is considered a minor risk. If the company has not reported its earnings on time, it may have been delayed due to audit problems or it may be finding it difficult to reconcile its accounts. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risk Share price has been highly volatile over the past 3 months (38% average weekly change). Minor Risks High level of debt (170% net debt to equity). Latest financial reports are more than 6 months old (reported June 2023 fiscal period end). New Risk • Apr 05
New major risk - Share price stability The company's share price has been highly volatile over the past 3 months. It is more volatile than 90% of Italian stocks, typically moving 37% a week. This is considered a major risk. Share price volatility increases the risk of potential losses in the short-term as the stock tends to have larger drops in price more frequently than other stocks. It may also indicate the stock is highly sensitive to market conditions or economic conditions rather than being sensitive to its own business performance, which may also be inconsistent. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risk Share price has been highly volatile over the past 3 months (37% average weekly change). Minor Risk High level of debt (170% net debt to equity). Announcement • Feb 02
Greenthesis S.p.A. (BIT:GTH) acquired an 80% stake in Elite Ambiente Srl. Greenthesis S.p.A. (BIT:GTH) acquired an 80% stake in Elite Ambiente Srl on February 1, 2024. In related transaction, Greenthesis S.p.A. acquired Ecorex Srl, Euro Veneta Srl, Emme Trasporti Srl and Execo Srl from ETHAN Group. Aggregately, the equity value of consideration for 80% is €25.3 million. In the context of the binding agreements signed between the parties in reference to the Operation, it is also expected that, by June 30, 2026, Greenthesis will also purchase the remaining 20% of the share capital of the Target Companies, as well as also be able to proceed with the possible purchase of five real estate complexes instrumental to the operational activity currently used by the Target Companies themselves. Greenthesis Group was supported through resources deriving from the financing of €50 million finalized by Greenthesis with a pool of banks financing companies.Greenthesis S.p.A. (BIT:GTH) completed the acquisition of an 80% stake in Elite Ambiente Srl on February 1, 2024. Announcement • Dec 21
Greenthesis S.p.A. (BIT:GTH) acquired 70% stake in Bigaran Srl. Greenthesis S.p.A. (BIT:GTH) acquired 70% stake in Bigaran Srl on December 18, 2023. The Enterprise Value of Bigaran, which closed the 2022 financial year with a turnover exceeding €20 million, was determined at €17 million, divided into a fixed part and a variable part, the latter linked to a earnout based on the results that it will achieve in the financial years 2024, 2025 and 2026. Pursuant to the agreements signed, the following are also envisaged, among other things: (i) a sale option in favor of the minority shareholders, concerning the shareholding held by them in the share capital of Bigaran, to be exercised in a single solution in the period between April 1, 2027 and September 30, 2027, as well as (ii) a purchase option in favor of Greenthesis SpA, concerning 30% of the share capital of Target held jointly by the minority shareholders, to be exercised in a single solution in the period between April 1, 2028 and September 30, 2028. This acquisition, in line with the strategic-industrial assumptions of the Greenthesis Group of strengthening itself with assets characterized by businesses with a high component of circular activities , will allow it to obtain important operational and commercial synergies for the benefit of the customer base in North-East Italy. Natixis Corporate & Investment Banking acted as M&A advisor, Chiomenti Studio Legale acted as legal advisor and Ferraro, Ginevra, Gualtieri – Studio Internazionale advised to Greenthesis and seller was assisted by Studio Casonato.Greenthesis S.p.A. (BIT:GTH) completed the acquisition of 70% stake in Bigaran Srl on December 18, 2023. Reported Earnings • Sep 26
First half 2023 earnings released: EPS: €0.054 (vs €0.051 in 1H 2022) First half 2023 results: EPS: €0.054 (up from €0.051 in 1H 2022). Revenue: €85.0m (up 5.5% from 1H 2022). Net income: €8.21m (up 6.9% from 1H 2022). Profit margin: 9.7% (in line with 1H 2022). Revenue is forecast to grow 7.4% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 9.7% growth forecast for the Commercial Services industry in Italy. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 26% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 12% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth. Upcoming Dividend • May 29
Upcoming dividend of €0.019 per share at 2.0% yield Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 05 June 2023. Payment date: 07 June 2023. Payout ratio is a comfortable 16% and this is well supported by cash flows. Trailing yield: 2.0%. Lower than top quartile of Italian dividend payers (5.3%). Higher than average of industry peers (1.6%). Reported Earnings • Apr 12
Full year 2022 earnings released Full year 2022 results: Revenue: €171.7m (up 11% from FY 2021). Net income: €17.3m (up 79% from FY 2021). Profit margin: 10% (up from 6.2% in FY 2021). The increase in margin was driven by higher revenue. Price Target Changed • Nov 16
Price target increased to €1.35 Up from €0.90, the current price target is provided by 1 analyst. New target price is 38% above last closing price of €0.98. Stock is up 20% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of €0.09 for next year compared to €0.064 last year. Board Change • Nov 16
Less than half of directors are independent There are 5 new directors who have joined the board in the last 3 years. Of these new board members, 1 was an independent director. The company's board is composed of: 3 independent directors. 4 non-independent directors. Independent Non-Executive Director Chiara Paolino was the last independent director to join the board, commencing their role in 2022. The following issues are considered to be risks according to the Simply Wall St Risk Model: Minority of independent directors. Lack of board continuity. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • May 30
Investor sentiment improved over the past week After last week's 15% share price gain to €1.03, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 11x. Average forward P/E is 11x in the Commercial Services industry in Italy. Total returns to shareholders of 180% over the past three years. Board Change • May 04
Less than half of directors are independent There are 5 new directors who have joined the board in the last 3 years. Of these new board members, 1 was an independent director. The company's board is composed of: 3 independent directors. 4 non-independent directors. Independent Non-Executive Director Chiara Paolino was the last independent director to join the board, commencing their role in 2022. The following issues are considered to be risks according to the Simply Wall St Risk Model: Minority of independent directors. Lack of board continuity. Price Target Changed • Apr 27
Price target increased to €1.35 Up from €0.90, the current price target is provided by 1 analyst. New target price is 58% above last closing price of €0.86. Stock is up 9.2% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of €0.09 for next year compared to €0.064 last year. Board Change • Apr 27
Less than half of directors are independent Following the recent departure of a director, there are only 3 independent directors on the board. The company's board is composed of: 3 independent directors. 4 non-independent directors. Independent Non-Executive Director Gabriella Chiellino was the last independent director to join the board, commencing their role in 2019. The company's minority of independent directors is a risk according to the Simply Wall St Risk Model. Reported Earnings • Mar 17
Full year 2021 earnings: Revenues miss analyst expectations Full year 2021 results: Revenue: €155.9m (up 83% from FY 2020). Net income: €9.65m (up 211% from FY 2020). Profit margin: 6.2% (up from 3.6% in FY 2020). The increase in margin was driven by higher revenue. Revenue missed analyst estimates by 6.1%. Over the next year, revenue is forecast to grow 12%, compared to a 80% growth forecast for the industry in Italy. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Mar 14
Investor sentiment improved over the past week After last week's 20% share price gain to €1.10, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 12x. Average forward P/E is 14x in the Commercial Services industry in Europe. Total returns to shareholders of 223% over the past three years. Major Estimate Revision • Jan 22
Consensus revenue estimates increase by 58% The consensus outlook for revenues in 2021 has improved. 2021 revenue forecast increased from €105.2m to €166.0m. EPS estimate increased from €0.04 to €0.09 per share. Net income forecast to grow 265% next year vs 27% growth forecast for Commercial Services industry in Italy. Consensus price target up from €0.90 to €1.35. Share price rose 5.5% to €1.16 over the past week. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Dec 09
Investor sentiment improved over the past week After last week's 25% share price gain to €1.15, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 26x. Average forward P/E is 16x in the Commercial Services industry in Europe. Total returns to shareholders of 255% over the past three years. Reported Earnings • Aug 14
First half 2021 earnings released: EPS €0.03 (vs €0.023 in 1H 2020) The company reported a solid first half result with improved earnings and revenues, although profit margins were flat. First half 2021 results: Revenue: €52.9m (up 36% from 1H 2020). Net income: €2.69m (up 35% from 1H 2020). Profit margin: 5.1% (in line with 1H 2020). Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 15% per year but the company’s share price has increased by 33% per year, which means it is tracking significantly ahead of earnings growth. Major Estimate Revision • May 23
Consensus forecasts updated The consensus outlook for 2021 has been updated. 2021 EPS estimate fell from €0.054 to €0.034 per share. Revenue forecast steady at €98.5m. Net income forecast to shrink 0.06% next year vs 25% growth forecast for Commercial Services industry in Italy . Consensus price target of €0.90 unchanged from last update. Share price rose 2.6% to €0.80 over the past week. Major Estimate Revision • May 21
Consensus forecasts updated The consensus outlook for 2021 has been updated. 2021 EPS estimate fell from €0.054 to €0.034 per share. Revenue forecast steady at €98.5m. Net income forecast to grow 61% next year vs 25% growth forecast for Commercial Services industry in Italy. Consensus price target of €0.90 unchanged from last update. Share price rose 2.6% to €0.80 over the past week. Reported Earnings • Apr 16
Full year 2020 earnings released: EPS €0.035 (vs €0.049 in FY 2019) The company reported a poor full year result with weaker earnings, revenues and profit margins. Full year 2020 results: Revenue: €85.5m (down 1.1% from FY 2019). Net income: €3.10m (down 29% from FY 2019). Profit margin: 3.6% (down from 5.1% in FY 2019). Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 59% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 28% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth. Is New 90 Day High Low • Feb 12
New 90-day high: €0.84 The company is up 41% from its price of €0.60 on 13 November 2020. The Italian market is up 12% over the last 90 days, indicating the company outperformed over that time. It also outperformed the Commercial Services industry, which is up 18% over the same period. Is New 90 Day High Low • Jan 07
New 90-day high: €0.74 The company is up 10.0% from its price of €0.68 on 09 October 2020. The Italian market is up 14% over the last 90 days, indicating the company underperformed over that time. It also underperformed the Commercial Services industry, which is up 15% over the same period. Is New 90 Day High Low • Dec 03
New 90-day high: €0.71 The company is up 2.0% from its price of €0.70 on 04 September 2020. The Italian market is up 10.0% over the last 90 days, indicating the company underperformed over that time. It also underperformed the Commercial Services industry, which is up 12% over the same period.