Earnings Release: Here's Why Analysts Cut Their F.I.L.A. - Fabbrica Italiana Lapis ed Affini S.p.A. (BIT:FILA) Price Target To €11.48

Shareholders might have noticed that F.I.L.A. - Fabbrica Italiana Lapis ed Affini S.p.A. (BIT:FILA) filed its yearly result this time last week. The early response was not positive, with shares down 6.5% to €7.86 in the past week. It was an okay result overall, with revenues coming in at €788m, roughly what the analysts had been expecting. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.

View our latest analysis for F.I.L.A. - Fabbrica Italiana Lapis ed Affini

Taking into account the latest results, the four analysts covering F.I.L.A. - Fabbrica Italiana Lapis ed Affini provided consensus estimates of €652.5m revenue in 2024, which would reflect a definite 17% decline over the past 12 months. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of €681.9m and earnings per share (EPS) of €0.70 in 2024. So we can see that while the consensus made a minor downgrade to revenue estimates, it no longer provides an earnings per share estimate. This suggests that the market is now more focused on revenue after the latest result.

The average price target fell 8.2% to €11.48, withthe analysts clearly having become less optimistic about F.I.L.A. - Fabbrica Italiana Lapis ed Affini'sprospects following its latest earnings. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. Currently, the most bullish analyst values F.I.L.A. - Fabbrica Italiana Lapis ed Affini at €14.50 per share, while the most bearish prices it at €8.80. As you can see, analysts are not all in agreement on the stock's future, but the range of estimates is still reasonably narrow, which could suggest that the outcome is not totally unpredictable.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the F.I.L.A. - Fabbrica Italiana Lapis ed Affini's past performance and to peers in the same industry. These estimates imply that revenue is expected to slow, with a forecast annualised decline of 17% by the end of 2024. This indicates a significant reduction from annual growth of 4.6% over the last five years. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 2.4% per year. It's pretty clear that F.I.L.A. - Fabbrica Italiana Lapis ed Affini's revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their revenue estimates for next year. Unfortunately, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and our data indicates it is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. Furthermore, the analysts also cut their price targets, suggesting that the latest news has led to greater pessimism about the intrinsic value of the business.

We have estimates for F.I.L.A. - Fabbrica Italiana Lapis ed Affini from its four analysts out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

We don't want to rain on the parade too much, but we did also find 1 warning sign for F.I.L.A. - Fabbrica Italiana Lapis ed Affini that you need to be mindful of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.