Legendary fund manager Li Lu (who Charlie Munger backed) once said, 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility of prices, but whether you will suffer a permanent loss of capital.' It's only natural to consider a company's balance sheet when you examine how risky it is, since debt is often involved when a business collapses. Importantly, EdiliziAcrobatica S.p.A. (BIT:EDAC) does carry debt. But the real question is whether this debt is making the company risky.
Why Does Debt Bring Risk?
Debt and other liabilities become risky for a business when it cannot easily fulfill those obligations, either with free cash flow or by raising capital at an attractive price. If things get really bad, the lenders can take control of the business. However, a more frequent (but still costly) occurrence is where a company must issue shares at bargain-basement prices, permanently diluting shareholders, just to shore up its balance sheet. Having said that, the most common situation is where a company manages its debt reasonably well - and to its own advantage. The first step when considering a company's debt levels is to consider its cash and debt together.
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How Much Debt Does EdiliziAcrobatica Carry?
You can click the graphic below for the historical numbers, but it shows that as of June 2020 EdiliziAcrobatica had €17.4m of debt, an increase on €11.9m, over one year. However, it does have €13.2m in cash offsetting this, leading to net debt of about €4.21m.
A Look At EdiliziAcrobatica's Liabilities
Zooming in on the latest balance sheet data, we can see that EdiliziAcrobatica had liabilities of €19.1m due within 12 months and liabilities of €11.7m due beyond that. Offsetting this, it had €13.2m in cash and €18.3m in receivables that were due within 12 months. So these liquid assets roughly match the total liabilities.
Having regard to EdiliziAcrobatica's size, it seems that its liquid assets are well balanced with its total liabilities. So while it's hard to imagine that the €40.9m company is struggling for cash, we still think it's worth monitoring its balance sheet.
We measure a company's debt load relative to its earnings power by looking at its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and by calculating how easily its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) cover its interest expense (interest cover). Thus we consider debt relative to earnings both with and without depreciation and amortization expenses.
EdiliziAcrobatica has net debt worth 2.4 times EBITDA, which isn't too much, but its interest cover looks a bit on the low side, with EBIT at only 3.8 times the interest expense. While these numbers do not alarm us, it's worth noting that the cost of the company's debt is having a real impact. Importantly, EdiliziAcrobatica's EBIT fell a jaw-dropping 60% in the last twelve months. If that decline continues then paying off debt will be harder than selling foie gras at a vegan convention. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But it is future earnings, more than anything, that will determine EdiliziAcrobatica's ability to maintain a healthy balance sheet going forward. So if you want to see what the professionals think, you might find this free report on analyst profit forecasts to be interesting.
But our final consideration is also important, because a company cannot pay debt with paper profits; it needs cold hard cash. So we clearly need to look at whether that EBIT is leading to corresponding free cash flow. Over the last three years, EdiliziAcrobatica recorded negative free cash flow, in total. Debt is far more risky for companies with unreliable free cash flow, so shareholders should be hoping that the past expenditure will produce free cash flow in the future.
Our View
On the face of it, EdiliziAcrobatica's conversion of EBIT to free cash flow left us tentative about the stock, and its EBIT growth rate was no more enticing than the one empty restaurant on the busiest night of the year. But on the bright side, its level of total liabilities is a good sign, and makes us more optimistic. Once we consider all the factors above, together, it seems to us that EdiliziAcrobatica's debt is making it a bit risky. Some people like that sort of risk, but we're mindful of the potential pitfalls, so we'd probably prefer it carry less debt. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. For instance, we've identified 5 warning signs for EdiliziAcrobatica that you should be aware of.
When all is said and done, sometimes its easier to focus on companies that don't even need debt. Readers can access a list of growth stocks with zero net debt 100% free, right now.
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About BIT:EDAC
Medium-low with reasonable growth potential.