Gujarat Industries Power's (NSE:GIPCL) Shareholders May Want To Dig Deeper Than Statutory Profit

Following the solid earnings report from Gujarat Industries Power Company Limited (NSE:GIPCL), the market responded by bidding up the stock price. Despite this, our analysis suggests that there are some factors weakening the foundations of those good profit numbers.

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Zooming In On Gujarat Industries Power's Earnings

As finance nerds would already know, the accrual ratio from cashflow is a key measure for assessing how well a company's free cash flow (FCF) matches its profit. The accrual ratio subtracts the FCF from the profit for a given period, and divides the result by the average operating assets of the company over that time. The ratio shows us how much a company's profit exceeds its FCF.

Therefore, it's actually considered a good thing when a company has a negative accrual ratio, but a bad thing if its accrual ratio is positive. While having an accrual ratio above zero is of little concern, we do think it's worth noting when a company has a relatively high accrual ratio. Notably, there is some academic evidence that suggests that a high accrual ratio is a bad sign for near-term profits, generally speaking.

For the year to March 2025, Gujarat Industries Power had an accrual ratio of 0.45. As a general rule, that bodes poorly for future profitability. And indeed, during the period the company didn't produce any free cash flow whatsoever. Over the last year it actually had negative free cash flow of ₹16b, in contrast to the aforementioned profit of ₹2.11b. We saw that FCF was ₹1.1b a year ago though, so Gujarat Industries Power has at least been able to generate positive FCF in the past.

That might leave you wondering what analysts are forecasting in terms of future profitability. Luckily, you can click here to see an interactive graph depicting future profitability, based on their estimates.

Our Take On Gujarat Industries Power's Profit Performance

As we discussed above, we think Gujarat Industries Power's earnings were not supported by free cash flow, which might concern some investors. As a result, we think it may well be the case that Gujarat Industries Power's underlying earnings power is lower than its statutory profit. Nonetheless, it's still worth noting that its earnings per share have grown at 23% over the last three years. The goal of this article has been to assess how well we can rely on the statutory earnings to reflect the company's potential, but there is plenty more to consider. With this in mind, we wouldn't consider investing in a stock unless we had a thorough understanding of the risks. To help with this, we've discovered 2 warning signs (1 is potentially serious!) that you ought to be aware of before buying any shares in Gujarat Industries Power.

This note has only looked at a single factor that sheds light on the nature of Gujarat Industries Power's profit. But there is always more to discover if you are capable of focussing your mind on minutiae. Some people consider a high return on equity to be a good sign of a quality business. So you may wish to see this free collection of companies boasting high return on equity, or this list of stocks with high insider ownership.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.